As Trump takes the oath, public sees persistent national division

Donald J. Trump took the oath of office as the 45th president of the United States today, capping one of the most improbable rises to political power in American history.

We’ll have lots of chances to analyze what Trump does and what it means. Today, however, let’s establish a baseline: As he takes office, what do the American people expect?

Good afternoon, I’m David Lauter, Washington bureau chief. Welcome to the Friday edition of our Essential Politics newsletter, in which we look at the events of the week in the presidential transition and highlight some particularly insightful stories.

A NATION DIVIDED

Division. That’s the one-word summary of the national mood as Trump begins his presidency. Consider these findings from recent polls:

By a margin of 86% to 12%, the public believes the U.S. is “more politically divided these days than in the past,” according to a new survey by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center. Pew has asked that question for 12 years. It has never gotten a reading that high.

By comparison, when Barack Obama was sworn in, just 46% of Americans said the country was more divided than it had been, although the share seeing division rose sharply early in his tenure.

In another recent poll, by SurveyMonkey, Republicans and Democrats displayed dramatically different hopes and fears about the country. Among Republicans, 79% said they were more hopeful than fearful about the future of the U.S. economy; only 27% of Democrats shared that view.

Among Democrats, 66% said they were fearful about the future of Medicare and Social Security. Only 31% of Republicans shared those fears.

A similar picture of division comes from a raft of polls released over the past week that asked the public’s view of Trump and how he has handled his transition. As Cathy Decker reported, the polls show the transition period has hurt Trump’s popularity more than it has helped.

A new Fox News poll released on the eve of Trump’s inauguration found that 54% disapproved of how he has handled his transition compared with 37% who approved.

And, yet, for all his strikingly low levels of popularity, the polls also reveal some good news for Trump: There’s no national problem that the public appears to see as a crisis, and, overall, the national mood has turned optimistic.

A deep irony comes along with those findings: Trump campaigned in a dark tone, emphasizing — often exaggerating — the depth of the nation’s problems, which he sometimes referred to as “disastrous.” He returned to that note in his inaugural speech, referring to the “American carnage” of crime and drugs. Throughout the campaign, a deep pessimism about America characterized his core supporters.

Now that he has won, however, his backers have grown sunnier. And Democrats, while deeply distrustful of Trump, remain more optimistic about the country than Republicans had been under Obama.

Gallup’s index of economic confidence reflects that mood: Since the election, the index has consistently been positive for the first time since the economic crash in the final year of the George W. Bush administration.

Terrorism, which briefly shot to the top of the heap of public concerns a year ago, after the attack in San Bernardino, has fallen sharply as a worry. Asked by Pew to name their chief concern, only 4% said terrorism, compared with 18% a year ago. Immigration, although it matters to Trump’s core voters, was the top concern of only 7% of respondents.

That’s the paradox as the Trump era begins: no overwhelming national problem, a fair degree of optimism overall, but partisan polarization that seems likely to surpass even that which surrounded Obama.

Indeed, on the list of the nation’s top problem, 17% of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic named Trump, himself, Pew found. That’s more than those who singled out healthcare, unemployment, racism or any other items on a long list of national ailments.

The polls, however, do offer a road map, of sorts, for how Trump might be able to expand his popularity, if that is his priority.

By large majorities, the public wants him to focus on domestic issues. The economy and healthcare sit at the top of the public’s list, Pew found.

Asked by Gallup which of Trump’s campaign promises was most important for him to keep, 69% of Americans said a “major spending program to strengthen infrastructure.” That was by far the most often-cited promise. Only 26% cited building a wall along the Mexican border.

Few on either side think the country’s divisions will heal anytime soon. Roughly 7 in 10 in Pew’s survey said they expected that in five years, the country’s divisions would be at least as bad as they are now, while only about 1 in 4 expected divisions to recede.

If Trump can make progress on the issues that most concern the country, however, it’s at least conceivable that the divisions that feel so intractable today could begin to fade.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN COMING DAYS

As Noah Bierman wrote, some of Trump’s plans could be truly revolutionary. Others, for all the controversy surrounding them, are really just returns to long-standing Republican ideas. What’s truly radical, and what isn’t?

One of Trump’s most influential advisors has an unusual background — he learned his conservatism as a rebellious teenager at an overwhelmingly liberal school, Santa Monica High. Lisa Mascaro has an insightful profile of Trump’s chief domestic policy advisor and speechwriter, Stephen Miller.

The issue on which Miller has made his clearest mark is immigration, a subject he previously handled as a top aide to Sen. Jeff Sessions of Alabama, Trump’s designee for attorney general. As soon as he is inaugurated, Trump will move to clamp down on immigration, Brian Bennett reports.

Immigration is a subject that can be handled largely by executive power. By contrast, repealing and replacing Obamacare, as Trump has promised, requires legislation, and the GOP strategy there remains extremely unsettled.

Simply repealing Obamacare without a replacement would raise premiums 20% and leave 18 million uninsured, a new Congressional Budget Office report found.

Trump’s point person on that issue, Rep. Tom Price of Georgia, his pick for Health secretary, fought to limit coverage in one of America’s neediest states, Noam Levey reported. In his confirmation hearing, Price told senators he would protect the vulnerable, but he left unclear how.

Another controversial nominee, Oklahoma Atty. Gen. Scott Pruitt, whom Trump chose to head the Environmental Protection Agency, caused a stir in his confirmation hearing when he cast doubt on California’s long-standing power to regulate auto emissions.

Trump’s pick for Commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross, assured lawmakers he is not anti-trade. He seems headed for an easy confirmation. So, too, does Interior secretary designee Ryan Zinke, who told lawmakers he opposes the sale of public land.

Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, faces a tougher road, although he also seems likely to be confirmed. Democrats hammered him over his offshore investments and foreclosures ordered by OneWest bank while he owned it.

Trump has vowed to slash regulations. Don Lee examined where he might start and the hurdles he faces.

The final member of the Cabinet, Sonny Perdue, the former governor of Georgia and designee for Agriculture, was named Thursday. With that, Trump completed a roster of top advisors with no Latinos chosen. As Decker reported, that’s being taken by many Latino activists as yet another slap.

Trump’s approach might seem new, but Arnold Schwarzenegger tried the outsider route first, Evan Halper wrote. In Sacramento, that approach was a disaster.

FAREWELL TO OBAMA

Democrats once dreamed of Inauguration Day. Now they’re soul-searching, Halper reported.

As tradition dictates, the 44th president welcomed his successor to the White House then left Washington just after the swearing-in. He was en route to Palm Springs for a vacation.

If you haven’t already, check out our four-part series on Obama’s legacy, including a close look at how a president who sought to ease partisanship instead saw it worsen.

And then there was this from Obama’s final news conference — a parting message for Democrats: hope

LOGISTICS

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That wraps up this week. My colleague Sarah Wire will be back Monday with the weekday edition of Essential Politics. Until then, keep track of all the developments in the transition and in California politics with our Trail Guide, at our Politics page and on Twitter @latimespolitics.

Send your comments, suggestions and news tips to politics@latimes.com.

David.lauter@latimes.com

Twitter: @davidlauter