Essential Politics: Will Kevin McCarthy pull off a comeback?

For most Congresses, electing leadership is straightforward. Lawmakers jockey and negotiate behind the scenes, but the outcome is clear by the time a floor vote is called.

That is not the case for this Congress.

Since coming to Washington this week, House lawmakers have had to vote three times for speaker of the House. Multiple ballots have not been required to elect a speaker since 1923. It’s still not clear who will emerge victorious.

Republicans retook the U.S. House of Representatives, and Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield), who had spent the last decade or so climbing the ranks of his party, made clear it was his time to be second in line for the presidency. A small faction in his party had other plans.

Early Tuesday afternoon, 19 far-right Republicans railroaded the California GOP leader, refusing to give him the votes needed to secure the leadership role he’s long sought. By the end of the day, the number of Republicans voting against McCarthy had grown to 20.

Will McCarthy ultimately emerge victorious? When will all this be over?

Hello, I’m Erin B. Logan. I cover national politics for the Los Angeles Times. Today, we are going to discuss where things stand for McCarthy’s quest for the House Speakership.

Why doesn’t McCarthy have the votes?

When Republicans retook the House during the 2022 midterm elections, their gains were not as big as they hoped. Their slim majority has effectively given a group of about 20 far-right lawmakers outsized power — enough to throw the speakership election into chaos.

The group had long vowed to oppose McCarthy. He made concessions, but they weren’t enough to win him the post — at least not on Tuesday.

The last time an election for speaker of the House went to multiple ballots was in 1923, when Rep. Frederick Gillett (R-Mass.) was elected on the ninth ballot. The record for most ballots for the speakership occurred in 1856, when Nathaniel P. Banks of Massachusetts was finally elected after 133 ballots in a contest that had begun the year before. McCarthy has made clear to his colleagues behind closed doors that he would break Banks’ record if that’s what it took.

“I earned this job. We earned this majority, and God damn it we are going to win it today,” the California Republican reportedly said.

During the vote, a number of Republicans rose to nominate other leaders. Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida nominated Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, who received 19 votes in the second round. Rep. Chip Roy of Texas nominated the Ohio congressman again in the third round, when his vote count grew to 20, despite Jordan urging his colleagues to back McCarthy. If more Republicans defect, McCarthy’s climb to speakership will grow even steeper.

The infighting has incensed many in the party. Rep. Dan Crenshaw of Texas called the far-right bloc “narcissists,” saying that “this handful of members is very clearly looking for notoriety over principle.”

He added: “They are enemies now. They have made it clear that they prefer a Democrat agenda over a Republican one.”

In a news conference in the basement of the Capitol, Marjorie Taylor Greene, the far-right Georgia representative, blasted Republicans who hadn’t backed McCarthy.

“This is not anything about the country. This is all about ‘never Kevin,’” the congresswoman said. “They just don’t like Kevin McCarthy.” She added: “This is about electing a person to sit in the speaker chair so that we can all get to work.”

Amid the chaos, former President Trump declined to tell an NBC News reporter whether he would back McCarthy.

“We’ll see what happens,” Trump said. “We’ll see how it all works out.”

Later that night, Trump reportedly called lawmakers and urged them to support McCarthy.

“REPUBLICANS, DO NOT TURN A GREAT TRIUMPH INTO A GIANT & EMBARRASSING DEFEAT,” the former president wrote on Truth Social, his social media platform, on Wednesday morning.

What happens next?

As of Wednesday morning, lawmakers will continue to vote until someone gets the majority. McCarthy has said he is willing to keep the floor votes going until he wins a majority.

Politicos have speculated what might happen if McCarthy fails to get a majority. Other Republicans who could replace him include GOP leaders Steve Scalise of Louisiana and Elise Stefanik of New York, both of whom nominated and spoke highly of McCarthy during the Tuesday session.

Until one side gives in, lawmakers are in a holding pattern. The House cannot swear in new members or conduct any official business until members elect someone to succeed Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) as speaker.

The latest from the campaign trail

— Long Island prosecutors have launched an investigation into U.S. Rep.-elect George Santos (R-N.Y.), after revelations surfaced that the now-embattled Republican lied about his heritage, education and professional pedigree as he campaigned for office, the Associated Press reported. But despite intensifying doubt about his fitness to hold federal office, Santos has thus far shown no signs of stepping aside — even as he has publicly admitted to a long list of lies.

— Katie Hobbs took the oath of office Monday to become Arizona’s 24th governor and the first Democrat to hold the office since 2009, the Associated Press reported. Hobbs was sworn in during a private ceremony at the state Capitol as she formally took over from Republican Doug Ducey. A public inauguration for the governor and others taking statewide offices is scheduled for Thursday. Hobbs is the outgoing secretary of state and was previously a state legislator who rose to be the top Democrat in the Arizona Senate. As governor, she’ll have to work with a House and Senate narrowly controlled by Republicans. She assumes control of a state with a strong economy and a solid financial position, with a large budget surplus forecast for the next fiscal year. But there are headwinds on the horizon.

The view from Washington

— Biden plans to renominate former Mayor Eric Garcetti to be U.S. ambassador to India after Garcetti’s confirmation failed to advance through the U.S. Senate last year, Times writers Courtney Subramanian and Dakota Smith reported. The White House is expected to resubmit nominations for roughly 60 people for jobs in key administrative posts or national security positions as well as 25 judicial nominees who failed to win confirmation last year, an administration official said.

— If you raised children during the pandemic, you probably remember something remarkable: getting checks in the mail, every month, from the federal government, Times writer Courtney Subramanian reported. The expanded child tax credit provided a few hundred dollars to help pay for your son’s braces or your daughter’s ballet lessons — or to ease the stress over whether you had enough money to cover the mortgage. Then, one day, the checks just stopped coming. This sudden end was not what the measure’s boosters had intended, or its critics had feared. Supporters of the 2021 boost to the child tax credit — part of the $1.9-trillion COVID-19 relief package — had intended it as an initial effort, not a one-off. They hoped that the measure would prove so successful, and so popular, that Congress would feel compelled to extend it.

— Republicans are attempting to pass a new House rule to block materials compiled by the panel that investigated the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection from immediately going to the National Archives, Times writer Sarah D. Wire reported. The move could signal that House Republicans intend to attempt to rebut the panel’s investigation, which captivated public sentiment for months. The investigation ended with a criminal referral for former President Trump and a landmark report concluding Trump intentionally misled and provoked the insurrectionists as part of an attempt to stay in power after losing the 2020 election.

— The Biden administration will propose Tuesday to dramatically increase fees for many employment-based visas while keeping prices for people applying to become U.S. citizens relatively static, Times writer Hamed Aleaziz reported. The proposal would push more of the cost of funding the agency that oversees the nation’s immigration system onto companies that employ foreign workers and ensure that asylum seekers continue to pay nothing to apply for protections in the U.S. The plan, which also includes new fee exemptions for victims of human trafficking and other crimes, reflects the administration’s values, an expert told The Times.

The view from California

— Far-reaching new laws seek to better working conditions for a broad swath of Californians in 2023 from white-collar employees to blue-collar farm laborers, fast-food servers and construction workers, Times writer Margot Roosevelt reported. Measures include expanding family leave, providing for bereavement leave and mandating pay transparency. Legislative wrestling between worker advocates and the state’s powerful industries meant several ambitious efforts failed to gain traction last year. They are likely to surface again this year, including bills to expand overtime, protect employees from artificial intelligence surveillance and stop businesses from moving call centers out of state.

— Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has tapped the brakes a bit on Police Chief Michel Moore’s bid for another term, securing a delay in a vote by the Board of Police Commissioners on his request for reappointment, Times writers David Zahniser and Libor Jany reported. Commission President William J. Briggs II said in a statement Friday that the board will still discuss Moore’s request for a second five-year term at its Jan. 10 meeting, which was announced earlier this week. However, the commission no longer plans to cast a vote on Moore’s reappointment during that session. Moore submitted a letter seeking a second and final term on Monday. A day later, Briggs announced his panel was planning a Jan. 10 up-or-down vote on Moore’s request, prompting some to argue that the decision was being rushed. Bass spokesperson Zach Seidl said Friday that the mayor sought the delay and provided Briggs “guidance” on the reappointment process.

— A Sacramento County Superior Court judge has put a temporary hold on a new California law boosting protections for fast-food workers that was set to go into effect Jan. 1, Times writer Suhauna Hussain reported. The order comes in response to a lawsuit filed Thursday by a coalition of major restaurant and business trade groups that is backing an effort to overturn the law, called Assembly Bill 257, through a referendum on the California ballot in November 2024. If the referendum qualifies for the ballot, it would block AB 257 until voters have a say. The coalition, called Save Local Restaurants, took issue with the state Department of Industrial Relations’ effort to implement AB 257 on Jan. 1, arguing that because the referendum effort is well underway, it renders the law unenforceable. Implementing the law could set a harmful precedent that threatens voters’ right of referendum, the coalition said.

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