Sovereignty wins the Belmont Stakes, beating pre-race favorite Journalism

There are two things that can help make a sport popular: dynasties and rivalries. Horse racing is immune from dynasties because the sport is built mostly around breeding, which is where the money is. But, after Saturday’s 157th running of the $2 million Belmont Stakes, it certainly has a rivalry, if only for one year.

The winners of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes hooked up in a much-anticipated rematch of the Kentucky Derby with the same result — Sovereignty running down Journalism in deep stretch to etch his name in history as the 52nd winner of two legs of the Triple Crown.

Sovereignty’s three-length win leaves a lot of people asking “what if” Sovereignty had run in the second leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness, and won. He would have been the 14th winner of the Triple Crown, although with an asterisk.

Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty won the 157th running of the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga Race Course in New York on Saturday.

Sovereignty powered past Preakness Stakes winner and pre-race favorite Journalism down the final stretch to win.

Baeza finished third in a top-three repeat of the Kentucky Derby finishing order.

The Bob Baffert-trained Rodriguez led for most of the race before Journalism took the lead coming into the final stretch. He was closely followed by Sovereignty, which then broke to the outside and overtook Journalism to win by about three lengths.

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Trainer Doug O’Neill has had plenty of highlights in his lengthy career. He won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes with I’ll Have Another in 2012. When he got to the Belmont, the colt suffered a hoof injury and was scratched.

While Saturday’s win in the Grade 1 $1 million Metropolitan Handicap with Raging Torrent won’t make up for missing out on the Triple Crown, O’Neill was still overjoyed. Raging Torrent, who hadn’t run since winning the Godolphin Mile in Dubai, went right to the lead and held on to win by 2½ lengths.

Frankie Dettori, who rode him to his previous two wins, never gave up the lead despite a strong effort by runner-up Fierceness. Former Breeders’ Cup Classic winner White Abarrio was fourth in the five-horse race.

“It’s] something that I never dreamt of just because it seemed so far-fetched, but a horse like Raging Torrent is kind of a once-in-a-lifetime kind of horse,” O’Neill said. “He’s got speed. He’s got stamina. He’s got class. He has no problem shipping and it’s just a wonderful feeling.”

Dettori, whose list of accomplishments is long, was pleased with the victory.

“What a horse he’s been for me,” Dettori said. “We took the best of the best and became triumphant. Great job [by] the team and I had a funny feeling he’d do a big number today and he did.”

O’Neill is already mapping out a plan for the 4-year-old.

“If he comes out of it good, the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile will be a logical goal and maybe a race between now and then,” O’Neill said. “The plan is to take him to California on Tuesday and play it by ear.”

It was O’Neill’s 2,996th lifetime win. He will likely hit the 3,000 milestone at Santa Anita.

As the Belmont Stakes creeped to less than an hour to post, it came down to the two horses you expected to be the top favorites for the race. Preakness winner Journalism will likely be the favorite for the 157th running of the third leg of the Triple Crown at 2-1 odds. Just a tick behind will likely be Sovereignty, winner of the Kentucky Derby, at 5-2.

So far, bettors have plunked down $2.015 million on Journalism to win the race. Just behind is Sovereignty with $1.699 million bet on him. Baeza, who finished third in the Derby, is the third favorite at 3-1 with $1.486 million on his back.

The total win pool is $7.853 million.

The top exacta is Journalism and Sovereignty, which pays $8 for a dollar bet, regardless of the order.

Here are the current odds with less than one hour to post time.

1—Hit Road 12-1

2—Sovereignty 5-2

3—Rodriguez 6-1

4—Uncaged 15-1

5—Crudo 10-1

6—Baeza 3-1

7—Journalism 2-1

8—Heart of Honor 17-1

The thing that makes the Belmont Stakes special is its distance — normally 1 ½ miles. It’s a distance that dirt horses rarely run anymore. It’s not unusual for turf horses to run that long, but few race that distance on the dirt.

This year’s race, however, will once again be just 1 ¼ miles. That’s because the race is being run at Saratoga Race Course for the second straight year in order to accommodate the massive rebuild of Belmont Park.

So, before we get overly nostalgic about Belmont Park and the 1 ½-mile Belmont Stakes, let’s take a look at the past, where things were quite different.

Next to Belmont Park, the race has been contested the most at defunct Jerome Park Racetrack in the Bronx. It was held there 23 times between 1867 and 1889.

It was actually run at one mile and five furlongs (or 1 5/8ths of a mile) from 1867 to 1873. It was cut back to 1 ¼ miles from 1890–1892 and again in 1895. It was a mile and a furlong (1 1/8 miles) in 1893 and 1894 along with 1904 and 1905. It was a mile and three furlongs (1 3/8ths) from 1896 to 1903 and again from 1906 to 1925.

It was held at Morris Park, also in the Bronx, from 1890 to 1904. Except for the past few years, the Belmont Stakes has been held almost exclusivity at Belmont Park. It was at nearby Aqueduct from 1963-1967. That is, until it has been moved to Saratoga.

There is some question if the Belmont will be moved for a third year, but you know how construction deadlines go.

As we head toward post time, Journalism, who has been the favorite all day, is starting to lose some traction. In the last hour he has gone from 9-5 odds to 2-1. He is one of three horses to have more than $1 million bet on him with $1.705 million in his win pool. He’s ahead of Sovereignty (3-1) with $1.264 million and Baeza (3-1) with $1.191 million on his back.

Interestingly, Baeza has more money bet on him in the place ($360,000) and show ($267,000) pools. Compare that to top pick Journalism, who has $286,000 to finish first or second and $208,000 to end up first, second or third

Other horses that have moved in the last hour are Uncaged, who went from 16-1 to 15-1, and Crude, who dropped from 11-1 to 10-1.

A total of $6.297 million is in the win pool, $1.6 million in the place pool and $1.248 in the show pool.

Here are the current odds with two hours to post time.

1—Hit Road 12-1

2—Sovereignty 3-1

3—Rodriguez 6-1

4—Uncaged 15-1

5—Crudo 10-1

6—Baeza 3-1

7—Journalism 2-1

8—Heart of Honor 17-1

This year’s Triple Crown season was turned upside down when Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty skipped the Preakness, thus ending any possibility of a Triple Crown winner. It raises the question: Does skipping the Preakness help a horse win the Belmont Stakes?

Horse Racing Nation put in the time and effort to answer that question. The result is that the best path to a Belmont victory is to skip the Preakness. Of 82 horses that went from the Kentucky Derby to the Belmont Stakes, the win percentage is 13.4%. Even more interesting is 37.8% finished the Belmont in the top three.

Let’s compare that to horses that ran in both the Derby and Preakness before going to New York. Of the 33 horses, 12.1% of them won the Belmont and 42.2% finished in the top three.

Another common path is to run in the Peter Pan Stakes as a prep for the Belmont. There have been 31 horses that have taken that path and the win percentage is a slim 9.7% with 22.6% finishing in the top three.

One of the things that often comes up is if the horse has had enough time off. Horse Racing Nation did that calculation, too.

There have been 18 horses that have been off more than 40 days before running in the Belmont Stakes. Of that number, a scant 5.6% ended up in the winner’s circle. The top three total was 27.8%.

Finally, what about horses that only ran in the Preakness before going to the Belmont. Apparently, not a good idea. There have been 26 horses that have only run in the Preakness before the Belmont. None of them won the third leg. And only 11.5% finished in the top three.

Final conclusion, if your horse is running well, keep him going. But there does seem to be a big advantage to having a fresh horse.

It was a day racing thought might never come. It was 37 years since a horse had won the Triple Crown when American Pharoah won the three races in 2015. Friday was the 10-year anniversary of the history-making event at Belmont Park, giving jockey Victor Espinoza a chance to reflect on the accomplishment.

“It was incredible,” Espinoza told Victor Ryan of Santa Anita publicity. “It was an emotional thing for me. Just to ride such an amazing horse and then win the Triple Crown after so many years, so many near misses. It didn’t really sink in until maybe a week later. That’s when I thought ‘wow, I’m really one lucky guy.’ Those are the memories that stick with me forever.”

Espinoza, 53, is still riding but not as often as he used to. He has greatly cut back on the number of mounts he rides.

Despite his Hall of Fame credentials, his business has tailed off I recent years. Last year he had a career low in mounts (111) and wins (10). His most recent mount was on May 18, a seventh-place finish aboard Don’t Swear Dave in a starter optional claimer for trainer Hector Palma. Espinoza hopes to ride more regularly at Del Mar this summer.

“Everything went so smooth with American Pharoah,” Espinoza said. “He could do anything. He was built so powerfully and with a lot of endurance. To be able to take all the training to win the Triple Crown, it requires a very unique horse.”

Espinoza seems content with having a little more free time.

“I’ve been catching up with a lot of things that I’ve had to miss out on over the years,” the jockey said. “Being a jockey, you’re pretty much always at the track. It’s every day, seven days a week. You can’t spend as much time with your family or do simple things like having a nice day at the beach.

“Recently I’ve started preparing for Del Mar. I think I’ll have more opportunities down there. You can’t force it, but my plan is to get down there and win some races.”

Del Mar starts its summer season on July 18.

It’s becoming more clear that Belmont Stakes bettors are now seeing this as a rematch between Journalism and Sovereignty, the first two finishers in the Kentucky Derby. Journalism is the current race favorite at 9-5 odds, while Sovereignty is second at 3-1, as is Baeza, who finished third in the Derby.

It’s been 12 years since the top three finishers in the Derby all ran in the Belmont.

Journalism and Sovereignty both have more than $1 million wagered on them in the race. Journalism has $1.450 million on his back to win, while Sovereignty has $1.014 million in its mutuel win pool. Baeza is at about $972,000. Rodriguez, the likely front runner, is fourth at 6-1 and $553,000 in the pool.

So far, $5.131 million has been bet to win on the upcoming 13th race.

Here are the current odds with three hours to post time.

1—Hit Road 13-1

2—Sovereignty 3-1

3—Rodriguez 6-1

4—Uncaged 17-1

5—Crudo 11-1

6—Baeza 3-1

7—Journalism 9-5

8—Heart of Honor 18-1

Trainer: Jamie Osborne

Jockey: Saffie Osborne

Owners: Jim and Claire Limited

Purchase price: homebred

Sire: Honor A.P.

Lifetime record: 7-2-4-0

Winnings: $400,919

Last race: Fifth in the Preakness Stakes

Morning line: 30-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 106-1

Comment: This Britain-bred colt is likely better than his 30-1 morning-line odds, but not by much. He’s coming off an uninspiring fifth-place finish in he Preakness. Previously, he was second in the UAE Derby, behind Admire Daytona, who finished last in the Kentucky Derby. He has won two of seven races, with a strong four times in second. Trainer Jamie Osborne will have his daughter Saffie ride the colt. Likely a negative when going up against jockeys such as Irad Ortiz, Flavien Prat and John Velazquez. Could certainly find a spot underneath in the trifecta or superfecta.

Trainer: Michael McCarthy

Jockey: Umberto Rispoli

Owners: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Robert V. LaPenta, Elaine SAtables 5, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor and Derrick Smith

Purchase price: $825,000

Sire: Curlin

Lifetime record: 7-5-1-1

Winnings: $2,838,880

Last race: Won the Preakness Stakes

Morning line: 8-5

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 5-2

Comment: He’s definitely the “it” horse and likely the best horse in the race. He has five wins in seven starts with one second and third. The second, of course, was in the Kentucky Derby over the sloppy Churchill Downs course. The jockey, Umberto Rispoli, has come under some scrutiny after his ride in the Preakness where he had to bull his way through horses to make a breath-taking stretch run to win the second leg of the Triple Crown. The question is if the last 1 1/16th of a mile took too much out of the 3-year-old colt. Michael McCarthy’s handling of the colt has been nothing short of spectacular. McCarthy said the horse is likely to be forwardly placed in this race, so maybe he won’t have to create a spot on the rail to go to the front.

You had to figure it would happen, and now you know that the betting public was not going to let the winner of the Kentucky Derby go off as the third favorite in the Belmont Stakes. In the last hour, Sovereignty closed down to 3-1 odds, putting him a few dollars ahead of Baeza. Also, Journalism, winner of the Preakness, has slid the other way going from 8-5 to 9-5. He started the day at 7-5.

Sovereignty now has $843,715 bet on him in the win pool, besting Baeza, who was at $830,333. Journalism is still on top with a betting pool of $1.301 million. The total win pool is at $4.385 million.

In the exacta pool, the top pick for a $1 is Journalism over Sovereignty, which pays $8. The opposite, Sovereignty over Journalism, pays $9. Any combination of Baeza, Sovereignty and Journalism, regardless of who finishes first or second with Baeza on the ticket, pays $11 for a $1 bet.

Here are the current odds with four hours to post time.

1—Hit Road 13-1

2—Sovereignty 3-1

3—Rodriguez 6-1

4—Uncaged 17-1

5—Crudo 11-1

6—Baeza 3-1

7—Journalism 9-5

8—Heart of Honor 18-1

Trainer: John Shirreffs

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Owners: CRK Stable and Grandview Equine

Purchase price: $1.2 million

Sire: McKinzie

Lifetime record: 5-1-2-1

Winnings: $648,500

Last race: Third in the Kentucky Derby

Morning line: 4-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 6-1

Comment: This is easily the wise-guy horse, the one who bettors think can beat the obvious favorites. His third in the Kentucky Derby was spectacular, but the two horses that finished in front of him are in this race. The most obvious drawback to this horse is he has only won one race, his maiden three races back. He has not won on the graded-stakes level. Remember that trainer John Shirreffs doesn’t enter horses into races he doesn’t think he can win. This will only be the sixth start for the $1.2 million colt. He has been beaten by three of the top four horses in the race. His odds might be enticing as he is likely to climb above his 4-1 morning-line odds.

Race fans like to take shots at Southern California, especially for the short fields, a lot of times in stakes races. Churchill Downs even escalated the sentiment when it deducted Kentucky Derby qualifying points when races drop to five or fewer horses. It almost kept Baeza out of the Kentucky Derby when his second-place in the Santa Anita Derby was worth only half the usual points.

Well, welcome to Belmont Stakes day at Saratoga, N.Y., where because of rain, the sixth race, the Grade 2 $300,000 Wonder Again Stakes for 3-year-old fillies, was taken off the turf and on to the main dirt track, which caused the field to scratch down from eight to three.

Adding insult to injury, the race was scheduled to go from FS1 to the big Fox channel. But, since a car race was running long on the more prestigious network channel, the horse race was sent back to FS1. It eventually went back to the main Fox.

And the race turned out to be little more than a paid workout for Nitrogen, the 2-5 favorite. It was her fifth win in a row. Taking even more drama out of the race was second-place finisher Bessie Abott, who like Nitrogen is trained by Mark Casse.

Because of the size of the field, there was no place or show betting. Nitrogen paid $2.80 to win.

By comparison, here are field sizes, before late scratches, from Santa Anita on Saturday: 7, 6, 7, 12, 8, 12, 7, 12, 8, 14.

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Owners: Bobby Flay and James Ventura

Purchase price: $350,000

Sire: Justify

Lifetime record: 3-2-0-0

Winnings: $130,148

Last race: Won the Sir Barton at Pimlico

Morning line: 15-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 12-1

Comment: Crudo’s entry into the race changed the pace scenario dramatically. Rodriguez was looking as the dominant early speed in the race until Crudo’s inclusion. It could be a battle up front but it’s not expected that Crudo will still be in or near the front by the far turn. He has a great jockey in John Velazquez, who knows how to coax a horse on the front to the finish line. But again, Rodriguez has Mike Smith, whose ability with front runners is beyond question. Still, with all that said, there does not appear to be a scenario where Crudo could hold off the three super closers in Sovereignty, Journalism and Baeza.

The odds are starting to change as post time starts to crawl its way to the scheduled 7:04 p.m. EDT start. The day seems to have gone into slow motion with two races being postponed because of an unsafe turf course. Rather than move races up, officials — likely because of the TV schedule —decided to spread out the races over more time rather than move up the Belmont Stakes.

For the first time, Journalism’s odds have gone up from 7-5 to 8-5, which was his morning line number. So far, the total win pool has gone to $3.659 million with Journalism getting $1.161 million of it. There is a real battle for second favoritism with both Baeza and Sovereignty at 7-2. Only a handful of dollars separate the two. Baeza has $675,354 bet on him compared to $675,311 going to Sovereignty.

Other changes were Hill Road going from 14-1 to 13-1, Uncaged dropped from 19-1 to 18-1, Crudo dropped from 12-1 to 11-1 and Heart of Honor slipping from 19-1 to 18-1.

Here are the current odds with five hours to post time.

1—Hit Road 14-1

2—Sovereignty 7-2

3—Rodriguez 7-1

4—Uncaged 19-1

5—Crudo 12-1

6—Baeza 7-2

7—Journalism 7-5

8—Heart of Honor 19-1

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Luis Saez

Owners: Winstar Farm and Repole Stable

Purchase price: $450,000

Sire: Curlin

Lifetime record: 4-2-0-0

Winnings: $105,450

Last race: Sixth in the Peter Pan at Aqueduct

Morning line: 30-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 200-1

Comment: It’s difficult to figure why this horse is in the race other than owner Mike Repole likes be part of the big show, and the race pays all starters. He’s one of two Todd Pletcher horses in the race. He has solid breeding, as the son of Curlin. He also likes a wet surface. But the 1 ¼ distance might be too long for him, especially after his sixth-place finish in the 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan Stakes. It’s difficult to make a case for this horse winning the third leg of the Triple Crown.

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Mike Smith

Owners: SF Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Ton Ryan, Waves Edge Capital and Catherine Donovan

Purchase price: $485,000

Sire: Authentic

Lifetime record: 5-2-2-1

Winnings: $522,800

Last race: Won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct

Morning line: 6-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 8-1

Comment: If Rodriguez wins and you don’t have him then you have to answer the question: How did you miss a very playable Bob Baffert horse in a Triple Crown race? He was originally scheduled to run in the Kentucky Derby but a foot bruise forced him to scratch. Many people, including this writer, thought he was the early favorite for the Preakness. But, once again, an unhealed bruise forced the connections to pull him from the second leg and point him to the Belmont, especially at 1 ¼ miles instead of the usual 1 ½ miles. No doubt, he is the most intriguing horse in the race. He was expected to be the early speed until Todd Pletcher entered Crudo, the front-running winner of the Sir Barton Stakes at Pimlico. It changed the complexion of the race with two horses battling for the early lead. It should be a good jockey battle between Rodriguez’s Mike Smith and Crudo’s John Velazquez.

Much as we’ve done the past two Triple Crown races, we’ve gone to the experts in statistics to try and give you a leg up on picking a winner in the Belmont Stakes.

Brisnet.com, the horse racing data arm of Churchill Downs Inc., puts out comparative stats on all the horses, not just in the Triple Crown races, but all races.

So, let’s dig down in the stats to see if you can find a nugget of information that will allow you to pick the winner of this year’s Belmont Stakes.

The categories and numbers are provided with the permission of Churchill Downs publicity and Brisnet.com.

Speed last race: Journalism 107, Rodriguez 105, Sovereignty 103, Baeza 102, Heart of Honor 97, Hill Road 94, Crudo 93, Uncaged 83.

Back Speed: Journalism 108, Baeza 107, Rodriguez 105, Heart of Honor 97, Hill Road 94, Sovereignty 94, Uncaged 83, Crudo NA.

Average Class Last 3 Races: Journalism 122.8, Sovereignty 122.0, Baeza 120.8, Rodriguez 118.5, Hill Road 118.4, Heart of Honor 118.2, Crudo 115.2, Uncaged 114.0.

Prime Power: Journalism 158.9, Sovereignty 154.0, Baeza 153.6, Rodriguez 145.0, Hill Road 140.5, Heart of Honor 138.4, Crudo 132.8, Uncaged 129.7.

Early Pace Last Race: Crudo 99, Rodriguez 93, Journalism 90, Heart of Honor 83, Uncaged 82, Baeza 82, Hill Road 79, Sovereignty 78.

Late Pace Last Race: Heart of Honor 109, Journalism 105, Hill Road 101, Rodriguez 101, Sovereignty 92, Baeza 91, Crudo 90, Uncaged 80.

One of the more interesting angles for this year’s Belmont Stakes has been in the lineage of horses such as Baeza.

He is related to a recent Kentucky Derby winner and last year’s Belmont Stakes winner.

The key horse in this equation is Puca, the mare that foaled Baeza, Mage (Derby winner) and Dornoch (Belmont winner).

“We are really blessed with his pedigree,” said John Shirreffs, Baeza’s Santa Anita-based trainer. “Especially in Classic races and there’s a lot of stress and horses have to maintain themselves.”

If Baeza were to win, Shirreffs would be the first horse who has a dam who has foaled horses that have won three Classic races.

“Obviously Baeza’s got a terrific pedigree, a wonderful mare and Puca. So, I think that’s all something really good that they he can fall back on.”

Baeza was a $1.2-million purchase at the 2023 Keeneland September yearling sale.

Despite the pedigree, Shirreffs thinks the horse to beat is Journalism.

“Journalism is a very tough horse,” Shirreffs said. “I’ve watched him at Santa Anita. And one thing about Journalism, he runs his race, Kentucky, Pimlico, he’s very tough. He’s solid. So it’s going to be a very difficult horse to beat. But Baeza is emerging and Baeza is developing. So we were close to him at Santa Anita. We’re making up a lot of ground at Churchill. So hopefully we can turn the tables this time.”

Shirreffs has never won the Belmont, but it is on his bucket list.

“Being a native New Yorker, that would be the greatest thing, right?” Shirreffs said about winning the Belmont. “I’d love to win the Belmont. I was at the [post position] draw and I was looking at that trophy. I said,’Wow, what a nice trophy that is.’ So, yeah, Belmont is so historic and the race is historic and there are legends over there. So that’d be just wonderful to win the Belmont.”

We’ll know by late Saturday afternoon.

The betting for the Belmont Stakes seems more robust than the Preakness Stakes three weeks ago. In fact, Journalism was the first horse to cross over more than $1 million bet to win. He remains the 7-5 favorite with $1.660 million bet on him. Baeza is still the second choice but went from 3-1 to 7-2 (or 3.5 to 1) in the only change on the betting board.

Baeza has had about $563,000 bet on him, just ahead of Sovereignty at $542,000. Sovereignty is also at 7-2.

The total win pool is $3.224 million. The trifecta pool is the second-most popular at $1.619 million with the exacta at $1.493 million.

Here are the current odds with six hours to post time.

1—Hit Road 14-1

2—Sovereignty 7-2

3—Rodriguez 7-1

4—Uncaged 19-1

5—Crudo 12-1

6—Baeza 7-2

7—Journalism 7-5

8—Heart of Honor 19-1

Trainer: Bill Mott

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Owner: Godolphin

Purchase price: homebred

Sire: Into Mischief

Lifetime record: 6-3-2-0

Winnings: $3,672,800

Last race: Won the Kentucky Derby

Morning line: 2-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 2-1

Comment: Sovereignty is the favorite in future’s betting. His workouts have been good and steady. His performance in the Kentucky Derby proved he is the real deal. Don’t be surprised if he ends up the favorite, something most expected him to be on the morning line. The spacing, five weeks since his last race, should work in his favorite unless the absence takes the edge off his form. He needs a lot of pace in the race to make him a serious contender at the end. Bottom line, he’s a really good horse and we have to determine if skipping the Preakness helped him because of the rest or hurt him because of the layoff.

Normally, the running of the Belmont Stakes without a chance at a Triple Crown winner makes the third leg of the series about as interesting as a television procedural — the Chicagos, FBIs or Law & Orders — in the last two minutes after the culprit has been identified and prosecuted.

But not this year. The 157th running of the Belmont Stakes has about as many plot lines as a season of “The White Lotus.” It’s easily the best race of the year, and, yes, that includes the Kentucky Derby.

You’ve got your sentimental favorite in Journalism, whose stretch drive in winning the Preakness Stakes could make almost anyone a fan of horse racing.

It’s a fair case to make that horse racing was the first sport to employ sabermetrics. Handicapping is built on the past performances of the runners in each race and it’s been that way for a very long time.

With that in mind, we thought we would throw a few numbers at you, borrowed from Friday’s television coverage on FS2. It may not give you a winner but will give you a great snapshot into the history of the third leg of the Triple Crown.

1867 — The first year the Belmont Stakes was run. Interestingly, it wasn’t at Belmont Park but at Jerome Park, which is in the West Bronx.

31 — Probably the most memorable of all the numbers, it’s the largest margin of victory in lengths. If you don’t know the horse, you’re not likely an historian of the sport. It was the winning margin for Secretariat when he won the Triple Crown in 1973. Perhaps the greatest single performance of dominance in racing. The closest we’ve since then was Flightline’s 19 ¼ win in the 2022 Pacific Classic at Del Mar.

6 — Most wins by a jockey is an honor held by James McLaughlin, accomplished in the 1880s, and Eddie Arcaro, who won his races in the 1940s and 1950s.

8 — Most wins by a trainer. This record belongs to James G. Rowe, Sr., who got the victories between 1883 and 1913.

6 — Most wins by an owner. This is shared by Belair Stud, who did it between 1930 and 1955, and James R. Keene, who picked his up between 1879 and 1910.

3 — The number of fillies that have won the Belmont Stakes. This record will not change this year as no fillies are in the race. You had Ruthless (1867), Tanya (1905) and Rags to Riches (2007).

69 — The number of Belmont winners who were awarded the Eclipse Award for best 3-year-old champion.

36 — The number is down from the previous entry and goes to the number of Belmont winners that also won the Eclipse for horse of the year.

41 — And finally, the number of Belmont winners in the racing Hall of Fame.

Thanks again to Fox for putting the numbers together, no doubt with a big assist from the New York Racing Assn. publicity department.

Santa Anita-based trainer Doug O’Neill is on the verge of making history. No, he’s not in line to win Saturday’s 157th running of the Belmont Stakes. He doesn’t have a horse in the race.

But, he’s in heavy company in the $1 million Metropolitan Handicap, otherwise known as the Met Mile. The personable O’Neill is four wins short of 3,000 victories. In addition to Raging Torrent in the Met Mile, he has three horses running at Santa Anita on Saturday and two more on Sunday. It’s unclear if Belmont at Saratoga has one of those milestones signs with a big “3,000” ready if O’Neill hits the mark by winning the Met Mile.

The Met Mile is likely the star of the Saturday undercard with Fierceness, the 2023 Eclipse 2-year-old top male, and White Abarrio, the winner of the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita, both in the race.

“The Met Mile is always so extremely difficult to win, but this year having horses like Fierceness and White Abarrio in there, it’s even extra prestigious,” O’Neill told New York Racing Assn. publicity. “So, it’s going to be fun and I’m very excited. I really think Raging Torrent is up to it if all goes well.”

O’Neill got to New York on Thursday night and worked the colt on Friday morning.

“The colt looked phenomenal [Friday] morning, his appetite’s great, he showed great energy on the track,” O’Neill said. “I’m very, very happy and very optimistic. He’s doing really, really well. He settled in well here and he had a nice little breeze over the track. We’re excited. Hopefully we get lucky.”

O’Neill has had a star-crossed history in the Belmont Stakes, usually run at Belmont Park. In 2012 he brought I’ll Have Another to New York with a chance at the Triple Crown after winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. But a minor injury shelved the colt and ended any hopes of a Triple Crown.

O’Neill’s last time in the Belmont Stakes was in 2021 when Hot Rod Charlie finished a well-placed second.

O’Neill, while recognizing his potential milestone, is not on edge about getting it.

“I don’t really think about it, but it is a pretty phenomenal number and just a credit to an unbelievable staff and a great group of owners,” O’Neill said. “We’ve been blessed to have some really good horses and win a lot of races. Hopefully we can keep it going.”

His three horses at Santa Anita on Saturday are Liquid Spirit and KnightwithLouis in the second race and Guy Named Joe in the eighth.

The rain is starting to let up at Saratoga Race Course, but track officials believe that the turf course is not safe for riding as it canceled two major undercard races. The two Grade 1 turf races, the $500,000 Jaipur Stakes (ninth race) and the $1-million Manhattan Stakes have been postponed until Sunday.

Sunday is closing day for the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. The meeting was moved to Saratoga Springs in upstate New York because of a massive rebuilding project at Belmont Park. Racing is scheduled to resume at Belmont next year.

There were two Southern California horses in those races. Ag Bullet, who has bounced between Richard Baltas’ Southern California and Kentucky strings, was scheduled to go in the Jaipur. Michael McCarthy, the trainer of Journalism, had Endlessly set to go in the Manhattan. Ag Bullet was to be ridden by Flavien Prat, while Umberto Rispoli was scheduled on Endlessly.

Prat will ride Baeza and Rispoli will be aboard Journalism in the Belmont Stakes.

Rather than move up the times of the Belmont Stakes card, the remaining races are being spaced out throughout the day.

Here are the revised post times.

Race 4: 12:55

Race 5: 1:45

Race 6: 2:35

Race 7: 3:25

Race 8: 4:13

Race 9: Postponed

Race 10: 5:16

Race 11: 6:09

Race 12: Postponed

Race 13: 7:04

Race 14: 8:02

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Owner: Amo Racing USA

Purchase price: $350,000

Sire: Quality Road

Lifetime record: 5-2-02

Winnings: $336,496

Last race: Won the Peter Pan at Aqueduct

Morning line: 10-1

Horse Racing Nation fair odds: 12-1

Comment: He is a new shooter to the Triple Crown series having last run as winner of the Peter Pan Stakes at Aqueduct. He was third in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He finished fourth behind Citizen Bull and Gaming in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. This may seem like a class improvement as any race in the Triple Crown series is such. He is a better closer than some in the race but he is likely not better than Journalism and Baeza. He is certainly worth considering on the bottom of your tickets in the trifecta or superfecta. As for winning the race? It seems like a long shot.

One thing you can say about the 157th running of the Belmont Stakes is that it will certainly be a competitive betting race. Based on early wagers, it appears that highly respected morning-line maker David Aragona of New York has most of it right. Since the retirement of Santa Anita’s Jon White, Aragona is alone at the top of morning-line makers in the country.

Where the morning line missed was having Baeza as the third choice at 4-1, but early wagers have him at 3-1 in front of Sovereignty, 2-1 on the ML but 7-2 in the live betting. It’s no surprise that Journalism, 8-5 on the ML, has dropped to 7-5 in live betting.

Baeza raised some eyebrows when he was the lowest price in the will pays for the Acorn-Belmont double, but that was likely because the heavy favorite in the Acorn, Good Cheer, was beaten by La Cara. That loss took a lot of money out of the mutuel pool.

The other horse expected to draw some action is Bob Baffert’s Rodriguez. He was 6-1 before wagering started and has slipped to 7-1 in live betting.

There is certainly a long way to go until the 13th race, but there should be plenty of action to determine who will be the favorite once the gates open.

Here are the current odds with seven hours to post time.

1—Hit Road 14-1

2—Sovereignty 7-2

3—Rodriguez 7-1

4—Uncaged 19-1

5—Crudo 12-1

6—Baeza 3-1

7—Journalism 7-5

8—Heart of Honor 19-1

For the third straight Triple Crown race, the early talk at the track is about the weather. Racing started at Saratoga Race Course on Saturday morning with rain falling under a sky that had a 94-degree temperature and 96% humidity. In other words, it’s wet. The main dirt track was listed as muddy and the turf course, in the races that remained on the grass, yielding.

But, fear not, the rain is supposed to stop after 1 p.m. EDT. Leaving five hours for the main track to dry out in time for the Belmont Stakes, with an approximate post of 7:04 p.m. EDT. Weather.com says the chance of rain at race time is about 9%.

In order to preserve the turf course for some of the later stakes races, the first, third, sixth, 10th and 14th races are all moved from the inner turf course to the main track. The 14th race, the only race after the Belmont Stakes has an unheard of 11 scratches in the race. Luckily there were three MTO (main track only) horses leaving five horses at the starting gate.

The turf stakes races affected include the sixth race, the Grade 2 $300,000 Wonder Again Stakes for 3-year-old fillies. The ninth race, the Grade 1 $500,000 Jaipur Stakes, for horses 3 and up going 5½ furlongs, is staying on the turf. The 10th race, the Grade 3 $300,000 The Pennine Ridge for 3-year-olds set to go 1 1/16 miles on the turf, was moved off the grass and shortened to a mile.

The 12th race, the $1-million Grade 1 Manhattan for older horses going 1 3/16 miles on the turf, will stay on the grass.

Stay tuned to this live blog as track conditions change during the day.

Post position in an eight-horse race is usually not that important, so looking at this year’s Belmont Stakes you’re not likely to find trainers complaining about where they plan to start. The favorite, Journalism, will be breaking from the seven, while the Kentucky Derby winner, Sovereignty, is breaking from the two.

Normally, breaking from so close to the rail is a disadvantage, but in this case, Sovereignty should have plenty of room especially because the horse on his right, Rodriguez, is full of early speed and should give Sovereignty plenty of room to get started and be put into a strong stalking position.

As for what post is the best for predicting Belmont Stakes winners, you need to look no further than right on the rail. The horse in the one, has won 20.3% of the time, or 24 winners. The last horse to win from the rail was Justify in 2018, who completed his sweep of the Triple Crown. Hill Road has the one on Saturday but it’s a bit of a stretch to see him in the winner’s circle.

The second best post is the three, which has 13.6% winners, or more specifically 16. That spot on Saturday belongs to Rodriguez, whose early speed should find him on top entering the first turn.

Up next is the five, which has 15 winners or a 12.7% win rate since 1904. Crudo, another early speed candidate, has that post.

And then there is the seven, which has 14 winners for an 11.9% strike rate. And that’s where likely favorite Journalism will be breaking.

Remember, this isn’t like the Kentucky Derby with up to 20 starters, so the chances of getting into trouble not of your making is much less.

Here’s a look at each post, the number of winners, and win percentage.

1 — 24, 20.3%

2 — 13, 11.0%

3 — 16, 13.6%

4 — 10, 8.5%

5 — 15, 12.7%

6 — 9, 8.4%

7 — 14, 11.9%

8 — 7, 5.9%

9 — 4, 3.4%

10 — 1, 0.8%

11 — 3, 2.5%

12 — 1, 0.8%

13 — 1, 0.8%

The favorite for Saturday’s Belmont Stakes may not be who you think it might be. Based on early betting information connected to a double matching the winner of Friday’s Acorn with Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, it appears that handicappers believe Baeza to be the best bet on the race.

The Acorn was won by long shot La Cara, knocking off undefeated in seven starts Good Cheer. It set up some very good prices for those who can complete the double. They are called “will pays” and often give a good indication where betting on the second half will land.

If you have a Good Cheer-Baeza ticket, you could win $135 for the $5 bet. Second is with Journalism paying $163.75 for the combo and Sovereignty pays $165. The real money is a La Cara-Uncaged double which pays $4,052.50.

Here’s a look at all the “will pays.”

1 — Hill Road $758.75

2 — Sovereignty $165.00

3 — Rodriguez $305.00

4 — Uncaged $4,052.50

5 — Crudo $851.25

6 — Baeza $135.00

7 — Journalism $163.75

8 — Heart of Honor $2,005.00

For the third time in five weeks, you may have awoken only to wonder where and what time you can watch a leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown. Well, the time is about the same, 7:04 p.m. EDT, which you should round to 7:05 p.m by the time the gates open. But, as for watching, it’s an entirely different television network. NBC is on the sidelines and Fox has the main broadcast.

Before we get too far into it, let’s do a little time conversion to help you wherever you are in the U.S. If you are out of the country, you’re on your own.

• The race should start at about 4:04 p.m. PDT in Los Angeles.
  
• You can make it 5:04 p.m. if you are in the Mountain Time Zone, such as Denver.
  
• Going farther east, you can count on the race to start about 6:04 p.m. in Chicago, which used to have a signature race track in Arlington until Churchill Downs decided it was more valuable to close it and sell the land.
  
• Getting all the way back to East Coast, that’s where you’ll have the local start of 7:04 p.m. EDT.

Now racing is known as a sport that whenever it has a chance to make a decision to benefit the sport, it always does the wrong thing. In this case, does it really make sense to have the first two legs of the Triple Crown on NBC and the final leg on Fox? Well, things changed when Fox bought 25% of NYRABets, the advance deposit wagering arm of the New York Racing Assn. With that, of course, comes the fact that Fox would get the most important leg of the Triple Crown if the same horse wins the first two legs. Such is not the case this year.

Coverage will start at 10:30 a.m. EDT. It will be on FS1. At 2:30 p.m. EDT, it switches to Fox, where it will stay until 7:30 p.m. EDT. During various parts of that time, there will also be duplicate coverage on FS1.

While there is some continuity with the NBC stations across the country, the same does not hold forth with Fox stations.

If you are in L.A., look for FOX on Channel 11. In New York, try Channel 5. Heading west, it’s Channel 32 in Chicago and 31 in Denver.

There will be a familiar voice calling the races at Saratoga Race Course, this year’s home of the Belmont Stakes. Frank Mirahmadi, the voice of Santa Anita and Saratoga, has a week away from Arcadia to call the Belmont Stakes weekend. Unlike NBC, which likes to supplant the local race caller with Larry Collmus, Fox allows Mirahmadi to call the races both live and on television.

Collmus recently replaced legendary Trevor Denman as the voice of Del Mar, meaning that Southern California has the two most important race callers in the country.

As for pre-race festivities, the highlight is the singing of a chopped-up version of New York, New York, made famous by Frank Sinatra. Tough assignment when you are basically doing a cover of a song so iconic that it will likely never be duplicated.