Racing! Some early Kentucky Derby numbers to chew on

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we take a look into the world of workouts.

You can’t say enough what a great Kentucky Derby this is shaping up to be. We’ve talked about all the storylines from unraced 2 year olds to an invader from Dubai and several horses that check all the boxes but still might not be good enough. Or maybe they will.

One of the things handicappers look at when making their decisions is workouts. Just seeing the times never really tells the story. You need to know what the trainer was actually trying to get out of the work. And then, the gallop out is not reflected. It’s why it’s a solid business for clockers, who watch workout after workout, to share their thoughts as they really know their stuff.

A good place to go for wisdom is XBTV, a branch of Xpressbet, which has video on the works at Santa Anita. Plus, they have a lot of commentary on the site, although it does skew to the West Coast.

The rhythm of the final major Derby preps is very different. You start with Louisiana Derby (six weeks before the Derby), then the Florida and UAE derbies (five weeks), the Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes and Wood Memorial (four weeks) and then the Arkansas Derby (three weeks).

So, we decided to look at the latest work from the Derby horses, going 22 deep, even though only 20 will be entered. Do with it what you may, but we hope it’s helpful. Also, almost every horse will have a final work before the Derby.

Two horses, Mendelssohn and Gronkowski, are coming from overseas and their works are not recorded. Six of the horses have bullets (fastest time at that distance on that day at that track), Audible, Noble Indy, Bolt d’Oro, Bravazo, Free Drop Billy and Lone Sailor. And four haven’t had a timed work since their last race: Magnum Moon, Quip and Solomini (Arkansas Derby) and My Boy Jack (Lexington Stakes).

Here’s what’s available in point total order: (Horse, date, track, distance, time, ranking against number of horses at that distance.)

Good Magic, April 21, Keeneland, 4 furlongs, 48.00, 8/76.

Audible, April 20, Palm Beach Downs, 5 furlongs, 1:01.40, 1/ 4.

Noble Indy, April 20, Palm Beach Downs, 6 furlongs, 1:15.00, 1/ 2.

Vino Rosso, April 20, Palm Beach Downs, 4 furlongs, 49.65, 5/14.

Bolt d’Oro, April 22, Santa Anita, 7 furlongs, 1:24.20, 1/3.

Enticed, April 19, Palm Meadows, 5 furlongs, 1:01.20, 2/7.

Justify, April 21, Santa Anita, 6 furlongs, 1:13.20, 4/16.

Flameaway, April 21, Churchill Downs, 5 furlongs, 1:00.40, 12/52.

Bravazo, April 20, Churchill Downs, 6 furlongs from gate, 1:15.40, 1/3.

Promises Fulfilled, April 21, Churchill Downs, 5 furlongs, 59.20, 4/52.

Free Drop Billy, April 21, Churchill Downs, 5 furlongs, 59.00, 1/52.

Lone Sailor, April 19, Churchill Downs, 5 furlongs, 57.60, 1/19.

Hofburg, April 15, Payson Park, 4 furlongs, 49.00, 2/11.

Firenze Fire, April 21, Belmont Park, 3 furlongs, 39.70, 35/37.

Combatant, April 9, Oaklawn Park, 4 furlongs, 50.20, 25/39.

Snapper Sinclair, April 17, Churchill Downs, 5 furlongs, 1:03.20, 18/19.

Right now, Combatant and Snapper Sinclair are not in the field.

Santa Anita review

Nessy, the favorite in the Grade 3 $100,000 San Juan Capistrano Stakes over 1 ¾ miles, won the race by a length under a masterful ride by Mike Smith. The race, which starts at the top of the hillside turf course, is the longest held at Santa Anita. Nessy, shipping in from Florida, carefully marked his time on the rail and then entering the stretch went three wide and ran down the front runners with seemingly little effort.

“This race is all for [co-owner and breeder] Ed [Hudon],” said trainer Ian Wilkes. “The horses went slow enough where he had to beat them, but he’s a cool horse. He’s getting better, that’s the whole thing about it. He’s improving. He’s just 5. He’s still a young horse at this stage for this game, because if we stay [racing him], he’ll get better as we go on.”

Nessy paid $3.80, $2.60 and $2.10.

“These owners have always wanted to win this race and they pointed for it with this horse,” Smith said. “I did ride him with a lot of confidence. … He’s the kind of horse that’ll run all day and we hit the wire his ears were pricked.”

Big races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Sunday.

Aqueduct: $100,000 New York Stallion-Times Square Division, 3 year olds, 6 ½ furlongs. Winner: Retonova ($2.90)

Woodbine: $125,000 Queenston Stakes, Canada-bred 3 year olds, 7 furlongs. Winner: Silent Sting ($8.10)

Santa Anita: Grade 3 $100,000 San Juan Capistrano Stakes, 3 and up, 1 ¾ miles on turf. Winner: Nessy ($3.80)

Aqueduct: $100,000 Memories of Silver Stakes, fillies 3 years old, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Winner: Significant Form ($2.30)

Final thought

Still looking to jump the circulation of this newsletter. Can’t beat the price. If you like it, tell someone. If you don’t like it, then you’re probably not reading this. Either way, send to a friend and just have them click here and sign up. Remember, it’s free, and all we need is your email, nothing more.

Any thoughts, drop me an email at johnacherwa@gmail.com or feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa.

Now, here is the star of the show, Sunday’s results. We’ll be back on Thursday.

NICE ICE stalked outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch, took the lead outside a foe in midstretch, drifted out some past midstretch and proved best under urging. COPPER FEVER angled in after the right hand curve and chased inside, came out leaving the hill and three deep into the stretch, angled inward past midstretch and edged a rival for the place. TOKEN VOW chased outside a rival, came out leaving the hill and four wide into the stretch and finished with interest to be edged for second. JACCAT broke in and slowly, saved ground off the pace and finished with some interest inside. SHE'S LEGIT chased a bit off the rail, was in tight off heels nearing the dirt crossing, came out in the stretch and lacked the needed rally. NO WINE UNTASTED had speed three deep then angled in and stalked the pace, came out into the stretch and could not offer the necessary late kick. TRUE TESTAMENT went up inside to duel for the lead, fought back a bit off the rail in midstretch and weakened in the final furlong. DUTTON'S LEGEND had speed between foes then dueled outside a rival, drifted out some into the stretch and had little left for the drive. Rail on hill at zero.

NOT NOW CAROLYN dueled three deep then outside a rival, inched away and angled in on the second turn, fought back inside leaving that turn and through the lane under urging and gamely prevailed. MAPIT stalked a bit off the rail then outside a rival, went up three deep then bid outside the winner on the second turn to gain the advantage nearing the stretch, battled outside that one through the drive and was outgamed late. DEMIGODDESS dueled between horses then a bit off the rail leaving the backstretch, fell back some inside on the second turn, came off the rail in the stretch and bested the others. NIGHT TIME INC (ARG) chased off the rail then outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. POETIC a bit washy at the gate, chased just off the rail, came out on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and weakened. ALWAYS BELIEVE pulled some along the inside dueling for the lead on the first turn and into the backstretch, stalked along the rail, came out into the stretch, then angled back in and had little left for the drive.

LIFE OF ILLUSION dueled between horses then outside a rival on the turn, took the advantage leaving the turn, kicked clear under urging in the stretch and proved best. WHAT'S BRUIN prompted the pace three deep then stalked off the rail into and on the turn and into the stretch and was clearly second best. ETCHING hopped in a slow start, saved ground off the pace, came out past midstretch and split rivals late for the show. CYRIELLE had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back leaving the turn, had the rider lose the whip into the stretch and was edged late for third. SHE'S FUNNY close up stalking the pace off the rail then four wide into the turn, continued off the inside and three deep into the stretch and was outfinished for a minor award. AUNT LUBIE broke slowly, was between horses early then chased a bit off the rail to the stretch and did not rally. WISH YOU WERE MINE three deep early, settled outside a rival then off the rail and gave way in the stretch.

TOUGH IT OUT stalked between horses, continued between foes in midstretch, rallied under some urging to gain the lead outside a rival a sixteenth out, inched away and held. UBER STAR broke a bit slowly, saved ground off the pace, came out on the second turn and three deep into the stretch, rallied between horses in late stretch to share the place. SPITFIRE broke a bit slowly then was bumped and squeezed, settled outside a rival, came out leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch and also finished well. KONA DREAMS pulled his way along inside to duel for the lead, inched away in midstretch, held well to deep stretch and was overtaken. POPULAR KID four wide early, stalked three deep, continued four wide on the second turn and into the stretch and was outfinished. DEFIANTLY angled in on the first turn and stalked inside, lacked room along the rail through the stretch and steadied briefly in tight a sixteenth out. KY. COLONEL broke in and bumped a rival, stalked off the rail then three deep between foes on the second turn and into the stretch and could not summon the needed late kick. ELWOOD J tugged his way between horses then dueled outside a rival, fought back on the second turn, was between foes in midstretch and weakened.

SPOKANE EAGLE stalked between horses then chased off the rail, came out in the stretch and rallied late under left handed urging to get up in the final stride. TREASURE HUNTER sped to the early lead, set the pace off the rail then a bit off the fence, angled to the inside on the turn and held on well but was caught on the line. GLORIOUS CROWN saved ground stalking the pace, came out leaving the turn and into the stretch and bested the others. CARAY moved up between horses to stalk the pace on the backstretch then a bit off the rail, continued inside on the turn and weakened in the drive. ON THE ROCKS close up five wide then four wide on the backstretch, went three deep into and out of the turn and weakened. SHARON'S FURY stalked between horses then three deep on the turn and into the stretch and also weakened. RHETTBUTLER pulled between horses stalking the pace and steadied in tight a half mile out to drop back, continued off the rail on the turn and into the stretch and had little left for the drive.

NESSY saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch, rallied under urging to gain the lead three deep in late stretch and proved best. A RED TIE DAY took the early lead and went the opening quarter mile in :24.30 seconds, set a pressured pace inside, inched away in the stretch the first time, edged away again when a rival challenged on the backstretch, came a bit off the rail in the stretch, was between horses in deep stretch, could not quite match the winner late but gamely held second. RYE chased outside a rival early then angled in leaving the hill, saved ground, came out a bit into the stretch then angled back to the inside in upper stretch, bid along the rail in deep stretch and was edged for the place. EVO CAMPO (IRE) pressed the pace outside the runner-up then stalked off the rail, bid again outside that one early on the backstretch, tracked outside a rival into the final turn then off the inside leaving that turn, was between horses past midstretch and was outfinished. LAZZAM (GB) angled in on the hill and chased inside then a bit off the rail leaving the backstretch, went outside a rival on the final turn, came out leaving that turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. PRINCIPAL BOB chased outside a rival then three deep, continued outside a foe on the final turn and three wide into the stretch, drifted inward in the drive and weakened. MOONMAN stalked off the rail then between horses, continued outside leaving the last turn, came out into the stretch and also weakened. Rail on hill at zero. HAND TIMED.

HOFFENHEIM prompted the pace three deep then outside the runner-up leaving the second turn, took the lead into the stretch, inched away in midstretch under urging and won clear. CLEAR THE MINE had good early speed and set a pressured pace inside, fought back on the second turn and into the stretch and just held second. SORRY ERIK chased off the rail then outside a rival, went three deep into and on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and was edged for the place. MULTIPLIER saved ground stalking the pace, fell back on the second turn, continued inside into the stretch, came out a bit in deep stretch and was edged for third between foes late. TOP OF THE GAME chased a bit off the rail then inside, went outside a rival on the second turn and lacked the needed rally. HORSE GREEDY pressed the pace between horses, dropped back a bit off the rail on the second turn and weakened. IKE WALKER stalked outside a rival then between foes on the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and also weakened.

I'LL WRAP IT UP chased between horses then off the rail, continued a bit off the fence on the turn, swung three wide into the stretch, rallied under urging to the front in deep stretch and held. BEAR SKINNED stalked the pace a bit off the inside on the backstretch and turn, came out three deep into the stretch and finished well. OMDURMAN was in a good position stalking the pace outside, also came three wide into the stretch and picked up the show. BLAZE'N PROSPECTOR stalked outside then bid four wide into the turn, battled outside a rival on a short lead leaving the turn, inched away in midstretch and weakened late. FOUR GAELS dueled outside a rival then between foes into the turn, angled to the inside and fought back leaving the turn and weakened in the final furlong. PRIVATE PROSPECT settled a bit off the rail then between foes on the backstretch, continued just off the inside on the turn and into the stretch and improved position. I B MIKE stalked outside then three deep on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and did not rally. LIMITED RESPONSE dropped back off the inside early, angled in some on the turn and was not a threat. CHROMIUM sent inside early, saved ground stalking the pace and weakened. KRISTO allowed to settle along the inside, saved ground to the stretch to no avail. GIANT MARK chased between horses then three deep leaving the backstretch, continued outside a rival on the turn and weakened. GUY CODE had good early speed and dueled off the rail, angled in some nearing the turn, stalked just off the inside on the turn and gave way in the stretch.

RED SHELBY sped to the early lead, set the pace along the inside, kicked away in the stretch and held under urging. BEAUTY DIVINE stalked the pace off the rail to the stretch, continued off the inside and finished willingly to be second best. WARM IT UP angled in and saved ground stalking the winner throughout and bested the others. ON A TOOT chased just off the rail, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. FLUORESCENT broke a bit slowly, settled off the rail, angled in on the hill, came out into the stretch and could not summon the necessary response. SHEZA FACTOR chased outside then alongside a rival down the hill and into the stretch and also lacked a rally. DESERT APPEAL broke inward and slowly, saved ground chasing the pace, cut the corner into the stretch and did not rally. MY ALCHEMIST stalked outside then alongside a rival, came out into the stretch, was between foes in midstretch, drifted in late and weakened. SHANGHAI TOOTSIE unhurried off the rail early, angled in outside a rival leaving the hill and failed to menace. LUCY BUCKNER broke slowly, dropped back off the rail, was pulled up midway on the hill and walked off. Rail on hill at zero.