Racing! Our weekly handicapping lesson and more

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as Santa Anita admits a goof, and fixes it.

Told you that if the new early post-time schedule at Santa Anita wasn’t working that management would not hesitate the pull the plug. On Friday, a press release informed everyone that starting this coming Thursday, the daily post time will be 12:30 p.m.

I liked the earlier post, but many newsletter readers disagreed with me. There was also some pushback from the horsemen who were losing some potential training time with an 11:30 a.m. or noon first post.

The thought was by running earlier, the track would find its way into the wagering schedule of East Coast tracks. Santa Anita found “modest” increases in handle but not enough to offset the dissatisfaction of some customers and horsemen.

Now, the new, new schedule will only be in effect two days before Saturday’s noon first post on Kentucky Derby day. The track will actually be open at 7:30 a.m. next Saturday. There will also be adjustments to posts on Preakness and Belmont days.

So, there you have it. They tried something, it didn’t work like they hoped, so they changed.

To say our goodbyes to the earlier post times, especially Mimosa Sunday, join me by just clicking here.

More Derby with XBTV

This is your place for Derby information. Jeff Siegel and Aaron Vercruysse of XBTV.com are doing a series of exclusive video reports on the horses in the Kentucky Derby. Jeff isn’t shy with his opinions and I can’t think of a better primer to start thinking about who to bet on the first Saturday in May.

They are doing four horses a day. And once we get through the 20 horses, they will analyze the race and give you their picks.

Today-Part three: Free Drop Billy, Hofburg, Instilled Regard, Justify. (Just click here.)

Part two: Enticed, Good Magic, Firenze Fire, Flameaway. (Just click here.)

Part one: Audible, Bolt d’Oro, Bravazo, Combatant. (Just click here.)

Our handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from Saturday’s 10th race at Santa Anita.

“It’s $12,500 N2L claimers going 5 ½ furlongs. Top selection is COW DOG (#2). There’s very little to this group, in particular, few are finishing with any sort of conviction the final ⅛, thus, we’ll look for the leader at the ¼ pole, with the following WCHR Handicapping Angle applying well here - In a cheap field lacking much talent we like to find the likely leader at the 1/4 pole which has led members to numerous winners for members of both the WCHR and ECHR. In a weak field very few runners are making up ground down the lane. If the front runner at the 1/4 pole can be established, they're often an excellent candidate to go wire to wire as even if this front runner begins to weaken, they'll simply be backpedaling in FRONT of other regressing runners. This will present the illusion of a horse on the front end who's "finding more" when in actuality the entire field is going backwards. With apprentice Figueroa up, look for a “wire to wire or bust” effort, with a good effort likely. ESTHERFOURFOURTEEN (#7) strings races together for the first time ever, telling us she’s finding some good health right now, which at least opens the door to a good effort. Ceballos riding very confidently right now, and this one fits super facing N2L types for the first time. Easy to find.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: Pereira has won three of the last four races run at 5 ½ furlongs here (aboard Allie’s Love in this one)

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 2-7

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 3,4

“TOP PICK: COW DOG (#2 3-1 Figueroa)

“SECOND CHOICE: ESTHERFOURFOURTEEN (#7 6-1 Ceballos)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

Touching Rainbows was much the best in winning the $58,000 allowance feature on Friday. It was Rainbow’s third straight victory, the previous coming back on Sept. 4. Jockey Flavien Prat had few problems winning the six-furlong race by 4 ½ lengths.

“It was a great run after the long layoff,” Prat told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “He broke well, put me in a good position and he did the rest.”

Touching Rainbows paid $4.00, $3.00 and $2.20 for trainer Phil D’Amato. Desert Law was second and Red Lightning rallied for third.

Santa Anita preview

It’s a big 11-race card with a noon start. There are a whopping five races on the turf, four of them all the way down the hill, and one just a tiny bit down the hill (1 ¼-mile race). There are two graded stakes.

The first is Grade 3 $100,000 Santa Barbara Stakes for fillies and mares going 1 ½ miles on the turf. It’s an interesting race in that it starts at the top of the downhill course and goes through the stretch twice. There are only six horses headed by 8-5 favorite Plein Air. The 5-year-old mare has won eight of 11 lifetime races, but seven of those wins came in Italy. In her only start in the U.S., she won the Astra Stakes at Santa Anita. Bob Baffert is the trainer and Tyler Baze will be aboard. Pantsonfire, winner of two of her last three, is the second favorite at 2-1. The race is scheduled for about 1:35 p.m.

The bigger stake is the Grade 2 $200,000 Californian Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. This race is usually considered a good prep for the (formerly Hollywood) Gold Cup on May 26. It also has a field of six, led by another Baffert trainee, Dr. Dorr at 8-5. The Doc is two-for-two this year including a resounding four-length win in the Santana Mile. Joe Talamo gets the ride for the third straight time. The Lieutenant, who finished second in the Santana, is the 7-2 second choice. Post time is somewhere around 2:10 p.m.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

1:04 Parx: $100,000 Lyman Stakes, Penn-breds 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: The Man (9-5)

1:31 Parx: $100,000 Foxy J.G. Stakes, Penn-breds fillies and mares 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Power Of Snunner (3-1)

1:35 Santa Anita: Grade 3 $100,000 Santa Barbara Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 ½ miles on turf. Favorite: Plein Air (8-5)

1:59 Woodbine: Grade 3 $125,000 Whimsical Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Moonlit Promise (2-1)

2:07 Santa Anita: Grade 2 $200,000 Californian Stakes, 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Dr. Dorr (8-5)

2:50 Belmont: $125,000 Elusive Quality Stakes, 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Commute (5-2)

7:11 Churchill: $100,000 William Walker Stakes, 3 year olds, 5 furlongs on the turf. Favorite: Beckford (3-1)

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

EIGHTH RACE: No. 8 Rumpus Cat (4-1)

Sophomore colt from the hot Simon Callaghan stable improved a bunch second time out when switched to turf and can beat this maiden field with a repeat effort. He's got tactical speed and drawn favorably, so tab in this full field coming down the hillside turf course.

Friday result: Touching Rainbows ($4.00) ran to expectations and then some, easily wiring his opponents while making his first start since September.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

THIRD RACE: No. 2 Ferocious (3-1)

He had his speed sharpened after a 26-week layoff when third at 870 yards in last start vs. repeat allowance winner Papa G. He figures to get a stalking trip behind expected pacesetter Runbrorun, who looks vulnerable with the class drop after a 22-week layoff.

Final thought

Still looking to jump the circulation of this newsletter. Can’t beat the price. If you like it, tell someone. If you don’t like it, then you’re probably not reading this. Either way, send to a friend and just have them click here and sign up. Remember, it’s free, and all we need is your email, nothing more.

Any thoughts, drop me an email at johnacherwa@gmail.com or feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

BAKERSFIELD SOUND had speed between foes then angled in, set the pace along the inside, kicked clear under urging in the drive, drifted out then in a bit and bobbled slightly past midstretch and proved best under steady handling late. MINISTER'S GLORY saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch and outfinished a rival for the place. WOUND TIGHT pulled along the inside then stalked the winner just off the rail to the stretch and was outfinished for second. ULTIMATE BANGO broke out a bit, chased three deep then outside a rival leaving the backstretch and on the second turn, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. JERSEY'S HEAT angled in and pulled inside chasing the pace, came out into the stretch, split horses in midstretch and could not offer the necessary response. TATAR chased three deep then outside a rival on the second turn, came out into the stretch and did not rally. SCHOOLEY three deep on the first turn, chased outside then between rivals leaving the backstretch, angled in on the second turn and could not summon the necessary late kick. ADVANTAGEOUS chased between horses then outside a foe into the second turn, angled to the inside into the stretch and lacked a further response. FAVERSHAM a bit slow into stride, angled in and saved ground off the pace, came out a bit into the stretch and failed to menace. BUDDY BEAR broke a bit slowly and steadied when crowded some, settled inside then just off the rail, went outside a rival leaving the second turn and three deep into the stretch and was not a threat.

WILLISTON DUDE dueled four wide then three deep leaving the first turn and into the backstretch, battled outside a rival leaving the backstretch, inched away and angled in on the second turn, drew off under urging in the stretch and held sway. SKAGIT RIVER settled outside foes then off the rail, advanced three deep on the second turn and into the stretch and closed the gap to the winner. SPEND IT four wide into the first turn, chased three deep then outside a rival on the backstretch and into the second turn, split horses into the stretch and picked up the show. DEFENSE MINISTER saved ground chasing the pace, came a bit off the rail in upper stretch and lacked a further response. RMANIE'S GREY SUIT had good early speed and dueled inside, stalked the winner on the second turn, came out into the stretch and weakened. MAJESTIC JOURNEY settled off the rail then between foes on the first turn, angled to the inside on the backstretch, came out on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and did not rally. CHIQUILIN three deep into the first turn, dueled between horses, stalked a bit off the rail on the backstretch, angled in on the second turn and gave way. TIZ THE TICKET pulled, between horses to duel for the lead then steadied in tight midway on the first turn, stalked just off the rail, dropped back leaving the second turn, came three deep into the stretch and had nothing left for the drive.

TOUCHING RAINBOWS had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away leaving the turn, kicked clear in the stretch under a tap of the whip and a brisk hand ride then a long hold late. DESERT LAW dueled between horses then outside the winner on the turn, stalked just off the rail leaving the turn and into the stretch and held second. RED LIGHTNING broke a bit slowly, saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch and just held third. QUALITY LINE settled off the rail, angled to the inside on the turn, continued along the fence in the stretch and just missed the show. LAW ABIDIN CITIZEN dueled three deep between horses, stalked off the rail then between foes on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. EXCITATIONS pressed the pace four wide then stalked three deep on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and also weakened.

PALACE PAYNTER sent between horses to duel for the lead, battled inside on the turn, inched away leaving the turn, kicked clear under urging in the stretch and proved best. JEWELED pressed the pace four wide then three deep on the turn, stalked leaving the turn, came three wide into the stretch and held second. MISCHIEVOUS SONG bobbled some at the start, chased just off the rail then outside a rival on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and edged a rival for the show. ATREVIDA went up inside to press the pace, fell back and stalked on the turn, continued along the rail in the stretch and was outfinished for a minor award. PROPER DRINK settled outside then off the rail, angled in some on the turn and lacked a response in the drive. TIFFANY DIAMOND had speed off the rail then dueled three deep between foes, fought back between horses on the turn, stalked a bit off the inside leaving the turn and had little left for the drive.

AHIMSA prompted the pace three deep then stalked outside foes leaving the hill, re-bid three wide into the stretch, took a short lead, inched away in midstretch and held gamely under some urging. TRUSTINI chased outside then four wide midway on the hill, angled in outside a rival leaving the hill, came out into the stretch and again nearing midstretch and finished well to edge a rival for the place. LEXINGTON GRACE (IRE) forced in at the start, chased between horses then off the rail leaving the hill, came four wide into the stretch and was edged late for second. TRUST FUND KITTY bumped at the start, chased a bit off the rail then inside, came out in the stretch and split rivals on the line. FACTOROFWON forced in and bumped at the start, stalked a bit off the rail then between foes, continued outside a rival leaving the hill, came out in the stretch and lacked the needed rally four wide on the wire. SLICK TRICK pulled along the inside and saved ground stalking the pace, lacked room off heels from midstretch to deep stretch and split horses late. BEST OF ME had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away briefly leaving the hill, fought back into the stretch, conitnu3ed inside and weakened late. MS DUPREE came in at the break, had speed off the rail then dueled between horses or outside a rival, stalked leaving the hill, re-bid between foes into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. BUNNY YOGURT broke in and a bit slowly, settled just off the rail, came out some in the stretch and lacked a rally. Rail on hill at 7 feet.

JAY MAKES US LAUGH broke in and a step slowly, went up inside to duel for the lead, inched away leaving the turn, drifted out into the stretch, fought back when headed in the drive, regained the advantage under urging in deep stretch and gamely prevailed. KETOS dueled four wide then stalked leaving the turn, re-bid again four wide into the stretch to gain a short lead but was outgamed late. EIGHTY THREE chased outside then off the rail, angled in outside a rival leaving the turn and into stretch and gained the show. GONNA FLY NOW angled in and saved ground stalking the pace throughout and lacked the needed late kick. TWIRLING TIGER chased between horses then three deep on the turn and four wide into the stretch and could not summon the necessary late response. MIDNIGHT BOLT also chased between rivals then a bit off the rail on the turn, angled to the inside into the stretch and lacked a rally. TOUGH BUT NICE dueled three deep between foes then stalked off the rail on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. ROCKET FUEL had good early speed and dueled between foes then outside the winner midway on the turn, stalked just off the rail leaving the turn and weakened in the drive.

STREET VISION bobbled at the start, had good early speed and dueled between horses throughout, took a slim advantage in the stretch and held on gamely under urging. ALLABOUTACTION went up inside to duel for the lead, fought back along the rail through a stiff drive and continued gamely to the wire. BOY HOWDY dueled outside the top pair throughout and just held third between foes late. JAN'S RESERVE a step slow into stride, chased outside a rival then angled in for the turn, came out into the stretch and finished willingly four wide on the line. STORMIN MONARCHO chased outside then three deep on the turn, angled in alongside a rival into the stretch and did not rally. MIDNIGHT DESTINY threw his head and hopped slightly at the start, saved ground off the pace, came out into the stretch and was not a threat. HOLLYWOOD ANGEL chased off the rail then split horses on the turn, angled to the inside into the stretch and weakened.

HUDDLE sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, turned back the bid of the runner-up to inch away again on the second turn and held gamely under urging. CLYDE'S PRIDE stalked a bit off the rail, bid outside the winner on the backstretch, tracked outside a rival on the second turn, drifted out from the whip in midstretch and continued willingly to best the others. CELTURIAN angled in on the first turn and saved ground stalking the pace, was momentarily in a bit tight into the stretch, continued inside and saved the show. BOOGIE also angled in early and saved ground chasing the pace to the stretch and did not rally. FAMOUS ROCK STAR reluctant to load, stalked three deep then outside a rival and weakened. CALIFORNIASPECIAL broke slowly, settled off the pace inside, came out into the stretch and did not rally. GREAT COMMISSION angled in and chased inside then a bit off the rail on the backstretch, went outside a rival on the second turn, came out into the stretch and weakened. THE HUNTED came out off heels early, was rank and bore out badly into and on the first turn, angled in off the rail leaving that turn and failed to menace. GOLDEN GLADIATOR chased outside a rival then inside leaving the second turn and gave way in the drive.