Racing! Mucho Gusto now in the upper echelon on the Kentucky Derby trail

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as you need to remember that it’s an early post everywhere because of the Super Bowl. And, we’re pulling for the Rams.

You have to feel for Santa Anita. It had a terrific card, and an anticipated monster pool for the mandatory payout day of the Rainbow Six. And then there is the weather. A pelting overnight rain that didn’t let up until mid-afternoon kept both people and horses from the track.

In short, it was pretty dreary. But the racing was good.

“You can’t get mad about something you can’t control,” Stronach COO Tim Ritvo said after the ninth race. He was right.

Before we get to the big races, you can read a different version of Saturday’s happenings which appeared on the web and in print. You can read it here.

Mucho Gusto was the co-star on the day, winning the Grade 3 $150,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, for 3-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles. It was also a Kentucky Derby qualifying race and worth 10 points. Not enough to get in, but gets you closer to the 30-or-so you usually need to qualify.

Mucho Gusto won by a widening lead of 4 3/4 lengths beating second-place Gunmetal Gray, who picked up 10 points last month winning the Sham Stakes, also at Santa Anita. However, the race took a tragic turn when Kid Cantina took a bad step on the backstretch, was vanned off and had to be euthanized.

Easy Shot finished third, followed by Magnificent McCool, in the five-horse field. Mucho Gusto paid $3.20, $2.20 and $2.10.

“I know that Joe [Talamo] rode the horse with a lot of confidence [Saturday],” trainer Bob Baffert said. “After Los Alamitos [when Mucho Gusto finished second to Improbable], I told him to get to the next level he has to learn to relax. So, [Saturday] was a good day to get him to back off those horses. He rode him like he was a good horse and he responded like a good horse.”

Baffert was also expected to win the other stakes race on Saturday, the Grade 2 $200,000 San Marcos Stakes for older horses going 1 1/8 miles, with McKinzie, who was coming off a dominating performance in the Malibu Stakes on opening day.

But Battle of Midway won this battle pushing ahead in the last 50 yards to win by half-a-length. He paid $6.80, $2.60 and $2.10. Giant Expectations was third followed by Pavel and Dalmore. Dabster, Shivermtimbers and Sonneteer were all trainer scratches early in the morning.

Jockey Flavien Prat ran a smart race aboard Battle of Midway for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer.

“I think the key was being outside,” Prat said. “I don’t think either horse likes to get pressure inside and I was able to stay just outside McKinzie the whole way. My horse likes to play around a little when he makes the lead, but he still finished good.”

Mike Smith who rode McKinzie, second guessed his ride, but only a little.

“I broke in front of him (Battle of Midway),” Smith said. “But if I had to do it all over again, I would’ve taken my horse back.”

Rainbow Six disaster

You can’t spell Rainbow Six without the rain. Not sure exactly what that means but maybe you can figure it out. There were certainly high expectations that Saturday’s mandatory payout would produce a massive mutuel handle. More than a week ago, expectations were well above $10 million. On Friday, knowing bad weather was upon them, the predictions were dialed back to $10 million.

On Saturday, the total didn’t even reach $7 million, coming in at about $6.8 million.

So, what could make it worse?

How about winning prices of $3.40, $3.20, $12.80, $5.00, $6.80 and $7.00. So, if you spend $300 on a ticket you would have lost money. There were 18,764 winning tickets that paid $296.30.

Ritvo was right, the track was stuck because of the weather. I suppose they could have asked the CHRB to move the date, like Gulfstream did in Florida last week when rain was expected on its payout day. But, Ritvo, more than anyone, knows the metrics and risks of doing something like that.

It’s likely the next big payout day will be in a month when the track has both the San Felipe Stakes for 3-year-olds and the Santa Anita Handicap. An official date has not been announced.

Ruis vs. Racing Office

There were a fair amount of a scratches (14 to be exact) but according to Shelbe Ruis, who runs the stable for Mick and Wendy Ruis, she got in trouble for scratching C Falls from the eighth race, a maiden special weight.

She took to Twitter.

“I was harassed from the new racing secretary for scratching my horse for unsafe conditions. They don’t care about horse safety at Santa Anita.”

And, she followed that up with: “Apparently, it’s ok to scratch for unsafe conditions for a stakes race but my msw horse doesn’t matter.”

No doubt, she was referring to Nolo Contesto being scratched out of the Robert Lewis and Dabster, Shivermetimbers and Sonneteer from the San Pasqual.

C Falls was a late scratch and to top it off, the colt’s jockey, Kent Desormeaux, was also a scratch from all his mounts because of illness.

Santa Anita review

Pretty much covered everything that needed to be covered in the top of the newsletter. So, there you have it.

Santa Anita preview

Again, remember there is an early 11 a.m. first post so everyone can get home in time to watch the Super Bowl. There are nine races scheduled, two of them on the turf, but I’m virtually certain those are coming off the grass. In fact, there is an outside chance the whole card gets cancelled if the rain comes down harder than expected. Again, that’s a longshot possibility. But, until then, the average field size is 7.5, thanks to two 10-horse fields.

The $75,000 Baffle Stakes was originally supposed to be on Sunday but was moved to next weekend because of the anticipated bad weather.

Sunday has six races with purses between $55,000 and $59,000. So, we’ll pick the 1 1/16-mile allowance/optional claimer for older horses as the feature. It’s the eighth race at about 2:30 p.m. It’s scheduled to be a field of 10.

The 3-1 favorite is Surfing Star for trainer Bruce Headley and jockey Joel Rosario. He’s won his last two races and is three-of-five lifetime. Nero is the second favorite at 7-2 for Bob Baffert and Joe Talamo. He was seventh in the Malibu and last February was second in the San Vincente. He’s two-of-five lifetime.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 8, 6, 6, 5, 7, 10 (4 also eligible), 8, 10, 8.

Big Races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday.

Gulfstream (9): Grade 3 $150,000 Forward Gal Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 7 furlongs. Winner: Feedback ($3.00)

Aqueduct (9): Grade 3 $250,000 Withers Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Tax ($6.20)

Gulfstream (10): Grade 3 $150,000 Swale Stakes, 3-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Winner: Call Paul ($5.00)

Gulfstream (11): Grade 2 $350,000 Holy Bull Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Harvey Wallbanger ($61.20)

Oaklawn (8): $125,000 Martha Washington Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile. Winner: Power Gal ($8.40)

Santa Anita (6): Grade 3 $150,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Mucho Gusto ($3.20)

Santa Anita (9): Grade 2 $200,000 San Pasqual Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Battle of Midway ($6.80)

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Sunday. All times PDT:

10:07 Gulfstream (9): $100,000 Dania Beach Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Current (2-1)

10:25 Aqueduct (8): $100,000 Busanda Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/18 miles. Favorite: Filly Joel (2-1)

11:13 Gulfstream (11): Grade 3 $100,000 Sweetest Chant Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Regal Glory (5-2)

Bob Ike’s SA pick of the day

EIGHTH RACE: No. 7 Popular Kid (4-1)

Razor sharp gelding from the Jerry Hollendorfer stable comes off a victory and moves up another allowance level today as he goes for his eighth lifetime win (first or second in 13 of 37 previous starts). The other main contenders all have the same front-running style, so look for him to come running late under Kent Desormeaux, who fits him very well.

Saturday’s result: One Bay Boy finished second behind runaway odds-on winner Omaha Beach in a blazing race. Solid try but nobody was beating the winner.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Los Alamitos on holiday

(In case you didn’t see this on Saturday, here’s a replay.) Los Alamitos is taking a rare break from nighttime quarter-horse racing on Saturday and Sunday as the track undergoes renovation. It usually picks this weekend because Sunday night racing would be a lost cause going up against the Super Bowl. The track resumes racing on Friday.

Final thoughts

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Any thoughts, you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Saturday’s results and Sunday’s entries.

LEROY chased outside, went up four wide into the turn, bid three deep, gained the lead leaving the turn, inched away under urging and proved best. NAP LAJOIE stalked between horses then a bit off the rail into and on the turn, went around a rival into the stretch and continued willingly to be second best. RED ENVELOPE came off the rail to stalk the pace, bid outside a rival then took a short lead between foes on the turn, angled to the inside in the stretch and bested the others. FAST AS CASS saved ground chasing the pace, came out on the turn and again into the stretch and lacked a further response. CYCLOMETRIC chased three deep then between foes leaving the backstretch and off the rail on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. RAUL ROSAS sped to the early lead off the rail, angled in and set the pace inside, dueled along the rail into and on the turn, dropped back leaving the turn and gave way.

DENMAN'S CALL hopped slightly in a bit of a slow start, stalked inside, came off the rail and bid inside rivals to gain the advantage in midstretch, inched away under urging and held gamely. KOCHEES saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch, angled back to the inside in midstretch and finished willingly. ALLABOUTMIKE had speed outside a rival then stalked alongside a foe, bid outside the pacesetter leaving the turn and three deep into the stretch, continued three wide in midstretch then between foes in deep stretch and just held third. STONE HANDS chased outside then off the rail, came four wide into the stretch under left handed urging, had the rider lose the whip past the eighth pole and was edged for the show. MARKET SENTIMENT had speed inside a rival then inched away and set the pace just off the rail, dueled leaving the turn, fought back between foes in midstretch and weakened late. STONE HANDS wore calks.

HOLLAND ROAD pressed the pace inside, dueled along the rail on the second turn and into the stretch, fought back inside through the drive and gamely prevailed under urging. PIONEEROF THE WEST had speed outside a rival then prompted the pace three deep, put a head in front leaving the second turn, battled outside the winner through the drive and continued willingly but was outgamed. MIDNIGHT SOOT four wide into the first turn, chased outside then three deep on the second turn, came four wide into the stretch and outfinished a rival for the show. BEDEVILED angled in and stalked a bit off rail, came out leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch, drifted in some in the final furlong and was edged for third. MUCHOS BESOS three deep into the first turn, stalked off the rail or outside a rival, angled in some entering the stretch and lacked a rally. CARVILLE had speed three deep then angled in and set a pressured pace between foes, battled between horses on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. CROWN THE KITTEN dropped back along the inside and saved ground well off the pace, came out into the stretch and was outrun.

NO WINE UNTASTED sped to the early lead, set all the pace off the rail and won clear under a couple taps of the whip and steady handling while being flagged with the stick late. TEAM HOLLYWOOD a bit slow to begin, angled in and stalked inside, came out leaving the turn and into the stretch and again in upper stretch and bested the others. TYFOSHA stalked between horses then a bit off the rail on the turn, found the inside into the stretch and clearly bested the others. LETS LIGHT THE WAY off a bit slowly, saved ground chasing the pace to the stretch and lacked the needed rally. TIZ TOFFEE stalked off the rail then three deep leaving the backstretch and into the turn, angled in outside a rival into the stretch and weakened. LEVELER a bit slow into stride, chased three deep then off the rail, came three wide into the stretch and had little left for the drive. NO WINE UNTASTED, TEAM HOLLYWOOD, LEVELER and TIZ TOFFEE wore calks.

OMAHA BEACH bobbled slightly at the break, stalked early then pressed the pace three deep, took command a half mile out, kicked clear nearing the turn, angled to the inside on the turn, was pushed along to widen leaving the turn and into the stretch and drew off under a left handed crack of the whip a furlong out and an energetic hand ride then steady handling late. ONE BAD BOY chased off the rail, angled in some leaving the backstretch, came out leaving the turn and four wide into the stretch, drifted in some and was clearly second best. NOLDE broke in some and a bit slowly, settled inside then a bit off the rail, found the fence on the turn, continued inside in the stretch and picked up the show. ALLEVA prompted the pace between horses then stalked a bit off the rail, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. MO RESERVE chased outside then alongside a rival on the turn, came three deep into the stretch and also weakened. MOONOVERTHEBAYOU hopped and tossed his head some in a bit of a slow start, settled off the rail, angled in some on the turn and failed to menace. POLAR sped to the early lead, set a pressured pace inside then stalked leaving the backstretch and into the turn, came out into the stretch and gave way. NOLDE and MO RESERVE wore calks.

MUCHO GUSTO had speed three deep then stalked off the rail, bid outside the pacesetter on the second turn, took the lead leaving that turn, inched away in the stretch and drew clear under left handed urging and a long hold late. GUNMETAL GRAY settled off the rail, came three deep into the stretch and edged a rival late for the place. EASY SHOT a bit slow to begin, saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch, went outside a rival in midstretch and was edged late for second. MAGNIFICENT MCCOOL had speed between horses then dueled outside a rival, inched away into the backstretch, kicked clear inside, fought back along the rail on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. KID CANTINA had good early speed inside, dueled along the rail, stalked into the backstretch, took a bad step early on the backstretch and was pulled up in distress and vanned off. KID CANTINA wore calks.

MINISTERSDON'TLIE angled in and had speed inside then inched away and set the pace along the rail, continued inside in the stretch and held on gamely under left handed urging. ROYAL ASPIRATIONS had speed outside the winner then stalked alongside a rival and finished willingly late to just miss. CAMZUL was off a bit slowly and bumped, chased between horses then a bit off the rail, angled in on the turn, came out some in midstretch and bested the others. R B EYE settled off the rail, went three deep on the turn and four wide into the stretch and improved position. CALDER VALE bumped at the start, chased three deep then between foes nearing the turn, continued outside a rival on the bend and lacked the needed rally. BLUE SKYE JADE sent between horses early, chased outside then off the rail, came three wide into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. TOBY TIME broke a step slowly, was sent between rivals then stalked inside, came out into the stretch and weakened. COMMAND THE MOMENT saved ground chasing the pace, cut the corner into the stretch and also weakened. COWBOY TOMMY broke slowly and bumped a rival, settled off the pace inside and failed to menace. SWORD MASTER dropped back off the rail, angled in a bit off the fence into the turn and was not a threat.

MY MANDATE had good early speed and dueled a bit off the rail, inched away and angled in on the turn, drifted out some then in a bit from the whip in the final furlong but held gamely under urging. PARSIMONY stalked a bit off the rail then inside, came out into the stretch and continued willingly but could not catch the winner. YOUNG PHILLIP angled in and pressed the pace outside the winner then stalked off the rail on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and bested the others. TIME IS NOW saved ground chasing the pace throughout and lacked the needed rally. SCALPER between horses early, stalked outside a rival, came out four wide into the stretch and weakened. PLATINUM NIGHTS pulled between horses and was in tight off heels five eighths out, chased just off the rail to the stretch and did not rally. NORSKI chased three deep then outside a rival on the turn and into the stretch and weakened. YOUNG PHILLIP wore calks.

BATTLE OF MIDWAY four wide into the first turn, stalked outside, bid three wide on the backstretch, dueled three deep into and on the second turn and into the stretch, put a head in front in upper stretch, fought back under urging outside the runner-up when headed in deep stretch and gamely prevailed. MCKINZIE three deep into the first turn, stalked then bid between horses on the backstretch and second turn and into the stretch, put a head in front in deep stretch and continued willingly but was outgamed late. GIANT EXPECTATIONS a half step slow to begin, dueled outside a rival then inside on the backstretch and second turn and into the stretch, fought back to midstretch and bested the others. PAVEL stalked inside then outside a rival on the backstretch, continued off the rail on the second turn, came out into the stretch and weakened. DALMORE angled in and dueled inside then stalked on the backstretch, dropped back into and on the second turn and gave way.

ISEE IT IN HISEYES pulled and dueled between horses then took back in tight into the turn, bid again inside, dueled, came off the rail in the stretch, fought back under urging and gamely prevailed. CAYATE dueled three deep to the stretch, took a short lead outside the winner, fought back outside that one and was edged late. GIDDYMEISTER chased off the rail, came three deep into the stretch, angled in some and gained third. TYPHOON HARRY settled off the rail, angled in nearing and on the turn, continued inside in the stretch and was outfinished for the show. DUKE OF FALLBROOK chased three deep, came four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. ROYAL SEEKER chased between horses, came out three deep into the stretch and could not offer the necessary late kick. HESA RANEGADE saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch and also lacked the needed response toward the inside. DAS BEAR had good early speed and dueled a bit off the rail then between horses on the turn and weakened in the stretch. DUKE OF FALLBROOK and GIDDYMEISTER wore calks.