Horse racing newsletter: Thousand Words now in Derby picture

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we ponder if, given Saturday’s Del Mar fog problem, a 2 p.m. start should be moved back.

Normally, we save the race recaps for later, but a Kentucky Derby prep on Aug. 1 at Del Mar seems like it’s worth the top of the newsletter. And the winner of the Shared Belief Stakes was … Thousand Words. Yup, not Honor A.P.

The win, by three-quarters of a length, gives the Bob Baffert-trained colt 83 Kentucky Derby points and a berth in the Sept. 5 race.

Thousand Words went to the front and stayed there the entire 1 1/16-mile race. Honor A.P. ran an uneven race, being well placed on the backstretch, then retreated slightly entering the stretch, then rallied late showing that the 1 ¼-mile distance of the Kentucky Derby should be no problem.

Thousand Words paid $20.40 and $3.40. Honor A.P. was second, followed by Kiss Today Goodbye and Cezanne. There was no show betting with only four horses in the race. Uncle Chuck and Anneau d’Or scratched earlier in the day. Baffert, who also trains Uncle Chuck, is going to run the 3-year-old colt next week in the Travers’ Stakes at Saratoga in New York against Derby favorite Tiz The Law, winner of the Belmont Stakes.

“I told [jockey] Abel [Cedillo] to jump him out of there and I thought he and Cezanne would be 1-2,” Baffert said. “Turning for home I could tell that Honor A.P. wasn’t running like he usually does. Cezanne got really tired, but [not] Thousand Words.

“I could tell when we got down here that he was a different horse from Los Alamitos and the real Thousand Words showed up [Saturday]. His whole mind changed. His color has changed. He had soured out on me, but we got him going the right way. I think he earned his way to the Derby.”

Thousand Words finished second to Uncle Chuck in the Los Alamitos Derby and hadn’t won a race since the Robert Lewis at Santa Anita on Feb. 1.

Cezanne, a $3.65-million purchase, may have his Kentucky Derby hopes over.

“I was surprised Cezanne flattened out at the top of the stretch headed for home,” Baffert told TVG. “ I was really disappointed in Cezanne. When he came back, he was really tired. … He’s not quite ready.”

Jockey Mike Smith was aboard Honor A.P.

“He ran well, but we’re disappointed he didn’t win,” Smith said. “I haven’t been able to get on him in the mornings and I think that’s made a difference. He’s just been going along there, not doing much in the mornings. I need to be on him and get more out of him. But that’s the way it is now; that’s just the way it is. This distance (1 1/16 miles) is too short for him, too. Just not his day.”

Minutes after the Shared Belief, Baffert won another big race on Saturday, the Grade 1 $750,000 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga. His chances improved greatly when the favored Tom d’Etat stumbled badly at the start.

“Obviously, we had to get over the gate [issues] a little bit and [jockey] Irad [Ortiz Jr.] and the gate crew did a wonderful job,” said Elliot Walden, who represents the ownership group WinStar Farm. “He’s always got a little blowup in him and then he settles down. He broke great, Irad had him in a super position and felt great all the way around there. Bob had him ready to go, as usual, when he comes east. … He got beat by Tom’s d’Etat in his first start at Oaklawn, but he’s set up for a big year and we’re just excited to continue that.”

Del Mar review

We took care of the Derby prep race up top, so, let’s get to the other two stakes.

$100,000 California Thoroughbred Breeders’ Assn. Stakes: The name gives away that it’s for Cal-breds, and the rest of the equation is that it is for 2-year-old fillies going 5 ½ furlongs. Governor Goteven ran a perfect race just off the pace, went to the front and kicked clear at the eighth pole to win by 3 ½ lengths.

Governor Goteven paid $8.80, $3.00 and $2.20. Big Andy rallied for second and was followed by Reign of Fire, Righteously and Jasmin Chieftain.

Here’s what the winning connections had to say.

Lisa Bernard (winning trainer): “I feel fantastic. It’s very wonderful. [Governor Goteven] has been a really fun 2-year-old to deal with, and I knew she was training really well. We won first time out with her at Santa Anita and I had a lot of faith in her. They just tell you. You just know sometimes. I think she’s got another stakes race in her future here at the end of the month ($100,000 Generous Portion, 6 furlongs, Aug. 30).”

Tiago Pereira (winning jockey): “She broke well and then we got in a battle with the 3 (Reign of Fire). My filly was game, though, and she was willing to go with her. We put the other filly away and just went on with it.”

Grade 1 $250,000 Bing Crosby Stakes: This six-furlong race lost some appeal when McKinzie scratched out of it in advance. But, it was still a good race as Flavien Prat proved what a great jockey he is by hanging back as the front runners ran 21.58 and 44.73 seconds through the early going. It left things open for his rail-hugging ride to win by a nose.

Illusion Collusion paid $5.80, $3.60 and $2.80. Lexitonian was second, followed by Law Abidin Citizen, Wildman Jack, Heartwood, Fashionably Fast, Anyportinastorm and Desert Law.

Here’s what the winning connections had to say.

Mark Glatt (winning trainer) “We thought, looking on paper, they were going to go pretty fast. I didn’t think my other horse (Law Abidin Citizen, third) would be that close (early) but he hung in there very tough. He’s a bit of an overachiever and I’m almost as proud of him as I am of Collusion Illusion. [The horse] doesn’t like dirt in his face and the way it set up he was going to have to go extremely wide to stay away from it. But the past couple days the rail has been getting better as a place to be and when he darted to the rail, I knew he was going to be coming. I got a little worried if he was going to find a place to go, but he was able to and came through in the end.”

Flavien Prat (winning jockey): “It set up nicely for me. They were going fast up front. I could feel it. My horse was handling the dirt well today, too. Better than he usually does. When we turned for home, I had horses in front of me and I was aware the inside was playing fast today so I went down there. I got through and at the eight pole I thought I was going to be an easy winner. Then I saw that horse on the outside (Lexitonian) coming and I wasn’t so sure. But we got there.”

Del Mar preview

A pretty good race week at Del Mar ends with an 11-race card starting at 2 p.m. There are two stakes races, including a Grade 1. Four of the races are on the turf, and there are only two maiden specials and one allowance/optional claimer.

Let’s preview the two stakes.

$100,000 Graduation Stakes: This is for 2-year-old Cal-breds going 5 ½ furlongs. The favorite, at 2-1, is Touchdown Brown for trainer Rafael Becerra and jockey Evin Roman. He won his only race by 5 ¼ lengths on June 19. Good With People is the second favorite, at 3-1, for Peter Miller and Abel Cedillo. He won his only race by 3 ¼ lengths. Post is around 3 p.m.

Grade 1 $250,000 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes: It’s a 1 1/16-mile race for fillies and mares. The troubled Hard Not To Love is the 2-1 favorite for John Shirreffs and Mike Smith. The one-eyed horse has been a difficult character going to the gate, even holding up the start of his last race when he refused to even go to the gate. She’s coming off seconds in the Santa Maria and the Beholder Mile. Previously, she won the Grade 2 Santa Monica and the Grade 1 La Brea. She’s won five-of-seven lifetime.

The second favorite, at 5-2, is Ollie’s Candy for John Sadler and Flavien Prat. She has won four-of-13 lifetime and is coming off a third in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps at Belmont. Previously, she was second to Ce Ce, who’s also in the race, in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom and was third in the Beholder Mile. Post is around 6:30 p.m.

Bob Ike’s DM pick of the day

ELEVENTH RACE: No. 8 Hollywoodhellraisr (8-1)

Taking a shot in a difficult maiden turf race as this second-time starter from the Phil D’Amato barn outran his odds when debuting in a sprint. Broke very slowly, lagged far back early, then finished with interest to be fourth beaten only a length. He should like the added distance and has a shot in a competitive event.

Saturday’s result: Cheerful Charm (4-1) finished a distant second behind the runaway winner. Couldn’t tell you much about the race since fog rolled in and it was impossible to see much.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ciaran Thornton’s DMr pick of the day

RACE SIX: No. 3 Black Storm (15-1)

With a 2-1 favorite and every other horse parked at 5-1 or higher odds, this is a race a value player like myself goes shopping in. This horse won last out in June and moves up in class Sunday. From seven starts here at the Beach, ‘Storm has a 1-1-2 record. Trainer Jeff Mullins is a 19% winner last race and owns the horse that races protected Sunday. Three nice works here since that last race in June makes the 15-1 price very attractive. This race, if the favorite falters, could pay handsomely on exotics. I would also watch Mayan Warrior at 12-1, Vander Kelen at 8-1 and of course the Flavien Prat horse Conquest Cobra at 6-1. If betting the favorite to misfire, throw in Implicity at 20-1 as well. Excellent betting race.

Saturday’s result: General Mathis was a vet scratch on Saturday.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Big races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday.

Woodbine (3): $100,000 My Dear Stakes, fillies 2-years old, 5 ½ furlongs. Winner: Joy’s Rocket ($5.50)

Saratoga (5): Grade 1 $500,000 Personal Ensign Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Vexatious ($21.00)

1:14 Gulfstream (9): $100,000 FTBOA Florida Sire Stakes (Desert Vixen Division), Fla-bred fillies 2-years-old, 6 furlongs. Winer: Go Jo Jo Go ($45.40)

Woodbine (7): $150,000 Greenwood Stakes, 3-year-olds, 6 furlongs on turf: Winner: Forester’s Turn ($9.90)

Gulfstream (10): $100,000 FTBOA Florida Sire Stakes (Dr. Fager Division, Fla-breds 2-years-old, 6 furlongs. Winner: Breeze On By ($3.40)

Woodbine (8): $108,700 allowance/optional claimer, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Above All Names (5-2)

Woodbine (9): $123,200 maiden special weight, 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Olliemyboy ($15.50)

Del Mar (2): $100,000 Shared Belief Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Thousand Words ($20.40)

Monmouth (11): Grade 3 $200,000 Monmouth Oaks, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Hopeful Growth ($25.60)

Saratoga (9): Grade 1 $750,000 Whitney Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Improbable ($8.50)

Saratoga (10): Grade 1 $300,000 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes, 3-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Winner: Echo Town ($16.40)

Woodbine (11): $101,200 allowance, 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Timeskip ($52.60)

Saratoga (11): Grade 2 $250,000 Bowling Green Stakes, 4 and up, 1 3/8 miles on turf. Winner: Cross Border ($6.40)

Saratoga (12): $200,000 Caress Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up. 5 ½ furlongs on turf. Winner: Cariba ($10.40)

Del Mar (8): $100,000 CTBA Stakes, Cal-bred fillies 2-years-old, 5 ½ furlongs. Winner: Governor Goteven ($8.80)

Del Mar (10): Grade 1 $250,000 Bing Crosby Stakes, 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Collusion Illusion ($5.80)

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Sunday. All times PDT.

10:00 Woodbine (1): $123,200 maiden special weight, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Justleaveitalone (2-1)

12:50 Woodbine (6): $126,800 maiden special weight, 2-year-olds, 6 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Gretzky the Great (1-1)

1:10 Ellis Park (6): $100,000 Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Sprint Stakes, 3 and up, 5 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Tiger Blood (5-2)

1:40 Ellis Park (7): $100,000 Kentucky Downs Preview Tourist Mile Stakes, 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Spectacular Gem (7-2)

1:55 Woodbine (8): $100,000 Victoria Stakes, 2-year-olds, 5 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Ready to Repeat (1-1)

2:10 Ellis Park (8): $100,000 Kentucky Downs Preview Ladies Sprint Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 5 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Morticia (3-1)

2:27 Woodbine (9); $108,700 allowance/optional claiming, 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Inventing Blame-ae (2-1)

2:40 Ellis Park (9): $100,000 Kentucky Downs Preview Ladies Turf Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Daddy Is a Legend (3-1)

2:46 Saratoga (9): $100,000 Birdstone Stakes, 4 and up, 1 ¾ miles. Favorite: Moretti (8-5)

3:00 Del Mar (3): $100,000 Graduation Stakes, Cal-bred 2-year-olds, 5 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Touchdown Brown (2-1)

3:10 Ellis Park (10): $100,000 Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup, 3 and up, 1 ¼ miles on turf. Favorite: Factor This (6-5)

6:30 Del Mar (10): Grade 1 $250,000 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Hard Not to Love (2-1)

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE THREE: No. 2 Laker Jet (7-2)

She has been third in her last two starts over this racing surface, posting solid figures against fields that are very competitive in this mish-mashed affair. Seven nights ago, Laker Jet showed a decent amount of speed away from the gate and sat a nice third over the trip until called upon late when running in close quarters inside the 1/16th pole against better while finishing third. With a solid number in tow, while also getting some class relief here, we will push this mare at a medium mutual.

And now the stars of the show, Saturday’s results and Sunday’s entries.