Horse racing newsletter: It’s Derby Day

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we feel the tradition of the first Saturday in September.

We’ve spent a lot of time this week previewing the Kentucky Derby. The only news on Friday was when Finnick the Fierce scratched from the one post. The one-eyed horse seemed to be moving a bit differently, which the connections attributed to his missing his right eye. An evaluation by an independent veterinarian was ordered.

Friday’s newsletter gave a total comprehensive look at the race by Jon White. Missed it? Just click here.

For my advance I looked at Tiz The Law and Sackatoga Stable. You can find that, just click here.

And on Friday, I took a look at what some of the trainers thought of this year’s version of the Kentucky Derby. Just click here.

Kentucky Oaks upset

Friday’s Kentucky Oaks was supposed to be a showdown between Gamine and Swiss Skydiver. Instead, Shedaresthedevil hung tough with Gamine through the stretch, then pulled ahead and held off Swiss Skydiver to win by 1 ½ lengths. Shedaresthedevil paid $32.20, $8.40 and $3.80. Swiss Skydiver was second, followed by Gamine, Tempers Rising, Hopeful Growth, Bayerness, Donna Veloce and Dream Marie. Want more? Just click here or read Ron Flatter’s insights below.

The Flatter files

It’s time for our weekly contribution from Ron Flatter of the Vegas Stats and Information Network and Horse Racing Nation. He talks about one of the handicapper’s greatest weapons. Luck. Ron, what do you have to say?

“Don’t always trust those Beyer Speed Figures or Brisnet Speed Ratings or Ragozin Sheets or artificial-intelligence apps or tea leaves or whatever else it is that we use as handicapping crutches.

“Sometimes luck plays a role in hitting winners. Just plain, dumb luck.

“It happened to me Friday at Churchill Downs. Well, not actually at Churchill Downs. Like so many others in the media, including the curator of this newsletter, coverage of Kentucky Derby week is being done from office suites in home compounds. Or in my case, it is at a desk five feet away from an unmade bed and some dirty clothes that the Mrs. uses as inspiration to do her eye-rolling exercises.

“Usually I get my insight from in-person interviews. But not this year. Not this week.

“I cannot remember the last time I have communicated from afar with so many trainers and jockeys and owners and agents and others before a big race card. The last time I used my telephone for so much of this interpersonal byplay, it was actually a telephone. The kind with a dial and that twisty cord with that one weird kink.

“Sometime during the week I actually took time to handicap the Kentucky Oaks. It might have been between calls to Bob John Todd Juan Baffert Carlos Shirreffs Ávila Pletcher. Or in between podcasts or writing assignments or media interviews with other media or whatever.

“Derby week might have moved into our bedroom, er, suite. But the work is very much the same. The only real difference is that I do not have some noisy journalist manqué riddling me in the media center with a stream of consciousness that excludes unspoken thought. Shall I name names? Or maybe it is me who is riddling everyone else.

“Where was I? Oh, yes. The past performances for the Oaks. How do I beat Gamine, I asked myself? Wait. She is a pacesetter. So is Swiss Skydiver. They both love the early lead. A-ha, I thought — but not out loud. The pace might burn out. Seize on a horse that could pick up the pieces.

“Shedaresthedevil intrigued me — and for more than her 20-1 morning line. She had won her last race by five lengths, and it had a ‘G3’ next to it. And she had Quirin Speed Points to suggest she could get first run off the final turn.

“Wow. An E/P 5 with a G3 in the PPs. That is the kind of alphabet soup that I crave. What was not to like?

“Well, her Beyer Speed Figures were suspect. Nothing better than an 86. But I always weigh the context of these things. Beyers and tracks like Indiana Downs do not always make for a good fit. At least that is my perception. Since I do not have the recipe for the Beyer secret sauce, I can only make that assumption, rash as it may be.

“Nevertheless, I was armed with an opinion, some chutzpah and a cashed-up betting budget. In I went on Shedaresthedevil. I went superfecta. And Pick 4. And the Oaks-Derby double. And I keyed her.

“Damned if I did not win two of the three. The Mrs. heard that rarest of declarations. I won some money betting the races. She said she already earmarked it for my future losses. Wise woman the Mrs.

“Oh, the third bet? It still depends on Tiz The Law coming through Saturday in the Derby. That sounds like a pretty good scheme right now. He has won four Grade 1s, one more than the other 15 horses in the field. He has won at 1¼ miles, unlike everyone else in the Derby field. He has a 109 Beyer. Oh, that’s right. We are ignoring those.

“All I need now is the one thing that I cannot handicap. And it was the one thing that worked for me Friday.

“Luck.

“As smart as I felt after the Oaks, I had to realize that the pace of the race was not all that hot. That the only thing really falling apart late was Gamine’s ability to race that final furlong. Swiss Skydiver put up a game fight but did what she has done in her two biggest races — finished second.

“So as much as I had it figured out that Shedaresthedevil would be in position to win the Kentucky Oaks, it really took a lot more ingredients for this recipe to turn out right.

“What is the old saying about the end justifying the means? In this case the means might have been luck. But as someone here in Las Vegas told me years ago, the cashiers fortunately do not ask how you won.

“Ron Flatter is a host and reporter who covers horse racing for the Vegas Stats & Information Network, which is available at SiriusXM 204 and to subscribers at VSiN.com. He is also the contributing editor at Horse Racing Nation and the host of the Ron Flatter Racing Pod. There are two episodes previewing the Kentucky Derby. One includes Las Vegas handicappers going over each horse in the race. The other features NBC Sports’ Larry Collmus, trainers Bob Baffert and John Shirreffs and Tiz The Law’s lead owner Jack Knowlton. You can listen to one by clicking here. And the other by clicking here.

Weekly handicapping lesson

It’s time for our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). Today’s analysis comes from the first race at Del Mar and incorporates some handicapping angles into the mix. Rob, take it away.

“The opener is a maiden special weight at 5 ½ furlongs and a really nice group of young runners; all have a legitimate look here closing week. All are well meant, we believe. Peter Eurton has two runners, and often it’s the wrong approach to believe the higher-profile rider is on the more well-meant first timer. A great example came in Friday’s final race: Richard Baltas had two runners, one with Flavien Prat, the other with Ricardo Gonzalez, both working super, both well meant. We gladly accepted the 25-1 price with our top pick, the Gonzalez bomb, which returned $53. Just a few things to remember before we look at this particular offering. Often a horse is projected to have different future plans outside of what we’re looking at today. For example, connections might be using today’s race as a prep for longer, and though the higher profile jock is aboard the losing runner today, next time out, they’ll be ready to strike. Another scenario involves the mental health of a horse, his or her maturity. Sometimes the higher-profile jock will ride the runner who needs to learn, perhaps not relaxing well, not switching leads, whatever the case, the higher profile jock is summoned to ride with lessons of the more talented jock in play, as opposed to being all about riding the more live horse today. With this in mind, top selection today is YOU’RE ALL TALK (#2), working super for Eurton, going only 5 ½ with the type of pattern we love to see from Pete, well intended here closing week, spotted with confidence, siding with this one as opposed to other filly with Umberto Rispoli aboard. QUEENGOL (#6) debuts for John Sadler, and when John is showing a :59 and change drill, it’s always a good thing. It has been for years, and here he gives Prat a leg up, ideally drawn from this short six hole, very easy to find off the short load.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 2-6-5

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): none

“Positive Notes:

“5 Kalypso - Victor rides back here for Bob Baffert, off the rail with the experience of that first outing under her. She’s got every right to improve, and thus, she has to be included.

“TOP PICK: YOU’RE ALL TALK (#2 10-1 Hernandez) Debut

“SECOND CHOICE: QUEENGOL (#6 6-1 Prat) Debut”

Mario Gutierrez update

Jockey Mario Gutierrez was involved in a nasty situation in the last race of Del Mar’s Friday card. His mount, Queen Stormborn, seemingly got spooked by something and crashed into the collapsible inside rail on the turf course. Guiterrez crashed to the turf while being mid-pack at the time. Of course, the track cameras never came back to what happened. TVG did a good job following it with the limited on-track resources it had. It even had a shot of the ambulance taking Gutierrez away. The horse got up and finished the race, so she was OK. As for Gutierrez, no official word, but a person with some knowledge of the situation but not authorized to speak about it said he was conscious during the entire time, had complete recall of what happened and was moving all four limbs. On the surface, if things stay that way, it’s good news although there still may be injuries. We’ll let you know when we know something.

Del Mar review

Friday’s feature was the I’m Smokin Stakes for 2-year-old Cal-breds going six furlongs. There wasn’t a lot of smoke as the race scratched down to just four horses. Good With People went to the lead and held that position for the entire race and won by half a length.

Good With People paid $3.80 and $2.40. There was no show betting. Touchdown Brow was second, followed by Tacoflavoredkisses and Pappy Boyington.

Here’s what the winning connections had to say.

Peter Miller (winning trainer): “We took the blinkers off and I think that made the big difference. He was a little too aggressive last time with the blinkers and he couldn’t see the horses coming at the end. We worked him without the blinkers and he did really well. And Abel [Cedillo] did a good job. It got a little close at the end. He looked like a winner last time too, at the eighth pole and the 16th pole, so I wasn’t counting my eggs before they were hatched.”

Abel Cedillo (winning jockey): “The last time I rode him (Graduation Stakes, Aug. 2), we had an easy lead and he got real tired. I suggested to Peter that we take the blinkers off to help him relax. That’s just how it worked today. We went to the front, but he did it easily. He had enough late this time to get the job done.”

Del Mar preview

Saratoga has chosen to compete with Churchill Downs with a big stakes cards while Del Mar has not. It is saving its big races for Sunday and Monday. So, what we are left with is an 11-race card starting at a sensible 1 p.m. There is one stakes race, five allowance races and two maiden specials.

The stakes is the Grade 2 $150,000 John C. Mabee Stakes for fillies and mares going 1 1/8 miles on the turf. Raymundos Secret is the 2-1 favorite for trainer Phil D’Amato and jockey Flavien Prat. She has won four-of-six lifetime but none at the stakes level.

The second favorite, at 5-2, is Lady Prancealot for Richard Baltas and Umberto Rispoli. She has won five-of-20 lifetime starts with four seconds and three thirds. Last year, she won the Grade 1 American Oaks at Santa Anita. This year she has finished fourth, fifth and four in graded stakes. This is Rispoli’s first trip on the filly. Post is set to be around 6:05 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 7, 6, 8, 11, 10 (2 also eligible), 11 (1 ae), 12 (1 ae), 10, 12, 8, 10 (1 ae).

Bob Ike’s Dmr pick of the day

EIGHTH RACE: No. 2 Muralist (12-1)

Gelding from the Dan Blacker barn comes off two straight dirt wins and takes advantage of a relatively new rule that allows allowance runners to come back at the same level if switching surfaces. The son of Street Sense has run well enough in four turf starts and figures to tuck into a good spot from his inside post. He’s been first or second in five of seven career starts and no reason he won’t fire again at a nice price.

Friday’s result: Run Snappy (7-2) broke poorly again, made a good run to enter contention on the turn, then lost his punch in the final 100 yards and finished off the board. He has ability but needs to improve at the gate.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ciaran Thornton’s Dmr pick of the day

THIRD RACE: No. 3 Munnings Pilot (12-1)

Munnings Pilot has stunk it up in the first three careers races all on turf. Joe Bravo rode the debut, Flavian Prat tried his hand, as did Umberto Rispoli. This is the third start off the layoff and Saturday trainer Richard Baltas tries dirt for the first time, perhaps thinking all those sharp workouts in the mornings may imply the horse really wants to race on dirt. Another sharp workout last week for a horse racing protected at this excellent 12-1 morning line has me interested.

Friday’s results: Incredibly Lucky tracked perfect into the stretch in second but had no oomph down the lane and ran off the board.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Golden Gate Fields weekend preview

He’s back for yet another Golden Gate meeting. Yes, track race caller and all-around good guy Matt Dinerman returns as our host for previews and other musings from up north. So, take it away, Matt.

“The thing to remember is that Golden Gate Fields has changed its first post to 1:15 p.m. starting Saturday. With that said, let’s get to the weekend preview.

“There are 10 races on the Kentucky Derby Day card. The fourth catches the eye, a maiden race for 2-year-olds, and trainer Jonathan Wong saddles a pair in Autism Siblings and Windy City Red. The latter colt, a Florida-bred by first crop stallion Chitu, sports fast morning drills on the work tab and is well regarded. Veteran rider Frank Alvarado has the call, which also adds to the appeal. Other top contenders include Arma D’Oro, a Kentucky-bred son of Violence campaigned by Tim McCanna, and the Doug O’Neill conditioned Exhalting from Southern California.

“There are nine races on Sunday, with the 2-year-old filly division of the Saturday maiden race kicking off the late Pick 4 starting in the sixth race. Malibu Jewel and Mischief Free are two $210,000 yearling purchases for owner Tommy Town Thoroughbreds and figure to get bet. Wong trains both fillies. Sweet Kaela, a filly by Fed Biz, and the Dialed In filly Waterfall are two additional Kentucky bred first-timers who could be heard from in the final furlong.

“There is a nine-race Labor Day program on Monday. The feature is the eighth, the $50,000 Rolling Green Stakes for 3-year-olds and up on projected firm turf at 1 1/16 miles. Multiple stakes winning 4-year-old filly Sloane Garden is the headliner in the eight-horse field as she tackles males for the first time since moving to the United States over the winter.

“Another contender includes Camino Del Paraiso, who is doing just fine after clipping heels and unseating his jockey in the California Dreamin Stakes at Del Mar in July. The locally trained son of Suances hit the board in the Grade 3 San Francisco Mile on June 14 and finished as the runner up in the Grade 3 San Luis Rey and Grade 3 Thunder Road at Santa Anita earlier in the year. Grade 3 winner Majestic Eagle ships in for Southern California conditioner Neil Drysdale after an off the board finish in the San Francisco Mile. The Black Album, a multiple minor stakes winner in the U.S. and a Group 3 winner in France, also makes the trip North in his first start for Peter Miller.

“Lastly, Tiz the Law is my pick to win this year’s Kentucky Derby. What a surprise. I’ll give you a ‘mild’ price in the race before the ‘Derby: Sacred Life, the ‘other other’ Chad Brown entrant in the Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic.”

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

8:00 Churchill (1): $107,600 allowance optional claimer, 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Seven Trumpets (2-1)

9:40 Laurel (2): $100,000 Twixst Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Smooth With a Kick (8-5)

10:10 Churchill (5): $100,000 allowance, 3 and up, 1 /16 miles on turf. Favorite: Admire (5-2)

10:45 Churchill (6): $100,000 allowance, 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Cowboy Diplomacy (7-2)

11:20 Churchill (7): $103,000 allowance optional claimer, 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Aurelius Maximus (7-2)

11:40 Monmouth (5): Grade 3 $150,000 Red Bank Stakes, 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Analyze It (8-5)

11:40: Laurel (6): $100,000 Deputed Testimony Stakes, 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Harpers First Ride (5-2)

11:55 Churchill (8): Grade 2 $500,000 American Turf Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Smooth Like Strait (8-5)

12:00 Woodbine (5): $123,200 maiden special weight, fillies and mares 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Barkin (5-2)

12:30 Woodbine (6): $108,700 allowance optional claimer, fillies ad mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Summer Sunday (2-1)

12:35 Churchill (9): Grade 2 $500,000 Pat Day Mile, 3-year-olds, 1 mile. Favorite: Cezanne (3-1)

12:40 Laurel (8): $100,000 Polynesian Stakes, 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Laki (5-2)

1:07 Churchill (10): Grade 3 $200,000 Iroquois Stakes, 2-year-olds, 1 mile. Favorite: Therideofalifetime (7-5)

1:21 Saratoga (9): Grade 2 $150,000 Jim Dandy Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Dr Post (7-5)

1:39 Churchill (11): Grade 2 $500,000 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile, fillies and nares 4 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Newspaperofrecord (4-5)

1:57 Saratoga (10): Grade 2 $200,000 Prioress Stakes, fillies 3-year-olds, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Kimari (2-1)

2:10 Woodbine (9): Grade 3 $125,000 Vigil Stakes, 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Pink Lloyd (1-1)

2:17 Churchill (12): Grade 1 $500,000 Derby City Distaff, fillies and mares 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Serengeti Empress (9-5)

2:21 Gulfstream (11): Grade 3 $200,000 Smile Sprint, 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Cool Arrow (1-1)

2:30 Saratoga (11): Grade 1 $500,000 Woodward Handicap, 3 and up, 1 ¼ miles. Favorite:

2:50 Churchill (13): Grade 1 $1 million Old Forester Turf Classic, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Factor This (3-1)

4:01 Churchill (14): Grade 1 $3 million Kentucky Derby, 3-year-olds, 1 ¼ miles. Favorite: Tiz the Law (3-5)

6:05 Del Mar (10): Grade 2 $150,000 John Mabee Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Raymundos Secret (2-1)

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

FOURTH RACE: No. 6 Irish Ballad (4-1)

He has several efforts that if repeated would place him right there in this event. His most recent start came against better at this distance and his figure from that race ranks best on my comparison speed charts. In that outing 13 nights ago, Irish Ballad broke a tad slow and was in close quarters down the backside to lose valuable ground and some racing momentum. After the less than stellar start, he continued throughout until finishing with good movement inside the 1/16th pole to finish fifth. With a quality figure in tow along with the drop in class for this evening, I’ll push this 5-year-old to be a big contender over an oval where he has finished in the money in four of six career starts.

Now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.