Horse racing newsletter: Improbable pulls the (minor) upset

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter, as we review perhaps the best racing day of the year at Santa Anita.

Now, we have a Breeders’ Cup Classic that is truly up in the air. You’ve got Maximum Security, who has won almost everything this year. You’ve got Tiz the Law, winner of the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes. You’ve got Authentic, winner of the Kentucky Derby. And now, you’ve got Improbable, whose win in the Grade 1 $300,000 Awesome Again Stakes on Saturday wasn’t that improbable at all. He had previously won the Hollywood Gold Cup and Whitney Stakes. (In case you missed it, three of those horses are trained by Bob Baffert.)

He looked pretty much out of it on the backstretch as the four other horses in the race, including Maximum Security, battled near the lead. But entering the far turn he got interested and blew past everyone, including his stablemate, to win qualifier for the Classic.

Improbable won by 4 ½ lengths and paid $5.60, $2.40 and $2.10. Maximum Security was second, followed by Midcourt, Take the One O One and Sleepy Eyes Todd.

“I knew I was coming in here with two really good horses,” Baffert said. “Maximum Security was in that scrum [at the front] and they were really running up close. I saw Drayden [Van Dyke], he knew what was happening, so he just sat back. He rode a great race, he knew what was going on, he took his time, rode him with patience. He’s had good luck with this horse. He loves this track.

“[Improbable] seems to be better in the gate here, that’s why we ran him here. I hate to see my horses have to beat the other horse, but ‘Max’ ran gallantly. He fended off the speed, but the next one is the big one, but [Saturday] it was all about Improbable.”

Indeed, it was.

Santa Anita review

We’ve covered the big stakes race; here are the rest on Saturday. No reason to dawdle.

$75,000 Unzip Me Stakes: This race for 3-year-old fillies was 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. Bulletproof One was the favorite and showed why, going gate to wire to win by 2 ¼ lengths.

Bulletproof One paid $5.40, $3.60 and $2.80. Aqua Seaform Shame was second, followed by Buddy Duke, Mind Out, Blue Sky Baby, Parkour, Moonhaul Milly and Powerfulattraction.

Here’s what the winning connections had to say:

Ruben Alvarado (assistant trainer for Peter Miller): “I was expecting her to run big. I know that she’s a different horse on the grass and she loves this track. She ran big on this track and did really well [Saturday]. We just needed her to come out of the gate and say goodbye. She’s getting more professional but still wants to go short, she’s a sprinter. We are looking to run something short in Keeneland next.”

Ricardo Garcia (winning jockey): “She cleared the horses very easily. She has always had natural speed. On the grass, she is a different filly. She is able to relax a lot more and skip across that ground really well. She was by herself, got a nice breather, relaxed perfectly and then kicked on again. This is my first Santa Anita stakes win, and it’s a great feeling to do it in a race like this.”

Grade 2 $200,000 Chandelier Stakes: This is a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and it was no question that Princess Noor would dominate in this 1 1/16-mile race — and that’s exactly what she did. She broke a step slow, cruised along the backstretch just off the pace until jockey Victor Espinoza moved her off the rail and even with the leader at the quarter pole, and that was all it took to win by 8 1/4 lengths under a complete hand ride.

Princess Noor paid $2.40, $2.10 and $2.10. Varda was second, followed by Miss Costa Rica, Illumination and Make Mischief.

Here’s what the winning connections had to say:

Bob Baffert (winning trainer): “I think Victor [Espinoza] rode her with a lot of confidence. He’s been on enough good horses and he knows. He took his time and I saw the other filly (Illumination) go to the lead and they just rode their own race. I saw Victor get behind and I saw that nice move before the 3/8ths and you can only do that when you have a Ferrari under you. … This filly is just incredible and very talented. I don’t train her as hard and I run her into shape. You never know if they can go two turns until they do it and it looks like that’s not going to be a problem.”

Victor Espinoza (winning jockey): “The talent, the energy, the speed! She dominated everyone with the energy she created during the race and I had a lot of confidence in her. Bob [Baffert] knows how to train his horses. She’s really kind, and she doesn’t need much. She does everything on her own, I’m just the pilot trying to find a way to have a little room to let her run and stretch her legs. It’s so easy to ride these types of horses. … She reminds me of other great horses I used to ride like American Pharoah and California Chrome. The talent is there, we just have to let them be happy around the racetrack.”

$100,000 Speakeasy Stakes: Filly Amanzi Yimpilo won this “Win and You’re In” for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint over seven male horses in the 5 ½-furlong turf race. She ran smartly off the lead and then by mid-stretch had moved to the lead and won by a head.

Amanzi Yimpilo paid $7.20, $3.80 and $3.00. Wyfire was second and Windy City Red finished third.

Here’s what the winning connections had to say:

Blake Heap (assistant trainer to Wesley Ward): “We worked her a half mile on the dirt and we went wide. We weren’t really trying to set the track afire. We wanted to do something to get a feel of the situation here and get a little air. It’s onto the Breeders’ Cup, we hope.”

Luis Saez (winning jockey): “She was pretty nervous behind the gate, we had a little trouble, but I knew she was ready. I could feel the power. She just broke very well and sat in a great spot, which was the spot I was thinking to be in. When we came down the stretch she fought, she was a fighter and we got there. I had a feeling we would get it.”

Grade 1 $300,000 Rodeo Drive Stakes: This was a testament to the oft maligned California breds as Mucho Unusual, the only one in this 1 ¼ mile turf race for fillies and mares, won by 1 ¼ lengths to qualify for the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. The 4-year-filly went gate to wire to win by 1 ¼ lengths.

Mucho Unusual paid $8.80, $4.40 and $2.40. Maxim Rate was second, followed by Lady Prancealot, Tonahutu, Pretty Point and Catch the Eye.

Here’s what the winning connections had to say:

Tim Yakteen (winning trainer): “It’s super satisfying, words can’t describe how satisfying it is. This [filly] is unbelievable, her mother, Not Unusual is a great producer, it was great to get a Grade 1 win on the page for her. It’s very gratifying. She’s been such a hard-knocking filly. She’s been knocking on the door with Grade 1’s, so to pull this out is amazing. … This is as big of a win as I’ve ever had. I haven’t had very many Grade 1 wins.”

Juan Hernandez (winning jockey): “My filly ran very sharp and she was really comfortable in the race. They let me go to the lead easily, so I took it, and then the rest of the race the filly did by herself. She’s a really nice filly. When I asked her to run at the stretch, she responded really well. It means a lot. It is my first Grade 1, I always wanted to win a Grade 1, I always tried really hard, but I couldn’t, [Saturday] was the day.”

Grade 1 $300,000 American Pharoah Stakes: Trainer Bob Baffert has won the different incarnations of this 1 1/16-mile race for 2-year-olds nine times and had the favorite in Spielberg, a $1-million purchase. But it was Get Her Number who took the lead on the far turn and breezed through the stretch to win by three-quarters of a length. It gave Get Her Number a free pass into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Get Her Number paid $18.20, $8.20 and $3.40. Rombauer was second, followed by Spielberg, Waspirant, Dyn O Mite, Touchdown Brown and Notable Exception.

Here’s what the winning connections had to say:

Ruben Alvarado (assistant trainer for Peter Miller): “We wanted to see how the horse could do in the grass so we decided to give that a shot. There wasn’t anything too quick for him on the turf. We had to take close to a month before coming back to this race. We went back to the dirt and gave him a couple workouts that went well, so we decided let’s do it and see if we get lucky or not.”

Flavien Prat (winning jockey): “I thought it was a great move [switching to dirt]. He was a bit disappointing last race (fourth on Sept. 7 at Del Mar). I thought I had good race, easy pace and he didn’t really show a turn of foot. I thought running on the dirt was a good move. It is great, Breeders’ Cup is always something we all look forward to, so it’s cool.”

Grade 2 $200,000 John Henry Turf Championship: Heavily favored United went right to the front and commanded throughout to win this 1 ¼-mile turf race. He won by 1 ½ lengths, but it could have been more.

United paid $3.40, $2.20 and $2.10. Originaire was second, followed by Another Mystery, Proud Pedro, Oscar Dominguez, Salvator Mundi and Next Shares.

Here’s what the winning connections had to say.

Richard Mandella (winning trainer): “He just continues to show what a professional he is now. He can adapt to certain situations. He is a big lumbering stride horse, and if you get him tied up too much it’s hard to get him going, so it’s better to keep him in the clear. Flavien did a fabulous job. … We’re gonna blow [Keenland’s] tires off [in the Breeders’ Cup.]”

Flavien Prat (winning jockey): “The other day I got trapped on the inside with no pace and I couldn’t go anywhere. [Saturday], I decided if he broke well, I would put him in the race. On paper it seemed like there was no speed, so I thought maybe I could try to take the lead. He was traveling well. I loved the way he was galloping and he made a good move as always down the lane.”

Grade 1 $300,000 Awesome Again Stakes: Just look at the top of this newsletter.

Santa Anita preview

Day 3 of the Santa Anita fall meet remains strong with 11 races starting at 12:30 p.m. There are three graded stakes and three allowance races. Five of the races are on the turf. Let’s get to the stakes previews.

Grade 2 $200,000 Zenyatta Stakes: This is a 1 1/16-mile race for fillies and mares. This field is down to four horses with Fighting Mad installed as the 2-5 favorite for trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Luis Saez. Baffert, no doubt, had to promise a bunch of live mounts because of the COVID protocols in New York. (In short, a jockey has to test negative twice in a five-day period before he’s allowed to return to riding in New York after leaving the state. This puts him out until Friday.) Fighting Mad won the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch and Grade 2 Santa Maria in her last two races. She’s five-of-eight lifetime. Hard Not to Love, the one-eyed horse for John Shirreffs and Mike Smith, is the 3-1 second choice. He was beaten by Fighting Mad in her last two races. Post is around 2:07 p.m.

Grade 2 $200,000 Santa Anita Sprint Championship: This is a six-furlong race, and like the Zenyatta Stakes, the winner gets a free pass into the Breeders’ Cup. This has a field of five, headed by C Z Rocket, at 8-5, for Peter Miller and Saez. This is another of those amazing Miller claims as the gelding has won all four of his starts in his new barn. Last out he won the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien. Collusion Illusion is the second favorite at 9-5 for Mark Glatt and Flavien Prat. He won the Grade 1 Bing Crosby last out. He has won five of six starts, his only loss coming last year in the American Pharoah when he was pulled up and walked off. Prat rode both those horses in their last start and is on Collusion Illusion. Post is scheduled for 4:12 p.m.

Grade 3 $100,000 Tokyo City Cup: There aren’t a lot of dirt races, outside of Belmont Park, that are 1 ½ miles, but this is one of them. This is a field of seven, headed by Combatant, at 9-5, for John Sadler and Umberto Rispoli. His last win was the Big ‘Cap March 7 (also the last day I’ve seen a horse race live). This will be Rispoli’s first ride on 5-year-old ridgling. Tizamagician, at 2-1, is the second choice for Richard Mandella and Drayden Van Dyke. He has won two-of-11 lifetime and is coming off an allowance win. This is his first stakes race. Post is set for 5:14 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 9, 5, 7, 4, 9, 8, 9 (1 also eligible), 5, 9 (4 ae), 7, 10 (2 ae).

Frank Mirahmadi’s SA pick of the day

THIRD RACE: No. 3 Camino de Estrella (3-1)

Honest, versatile 6-year-old comes off a good third-place finish on turf at Del Mar and fits well versus these. He has run well on Santa Anita’s main track.

Saturday’s result: Express Train was hammered down to odds-on, broke half a step slow but was in striking position and simply outrun, finishing second behind the older, sharper Extra Hope.

Frank Mirahmadi is the track announcer at Santa Anita Park.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

FIFTH RACE: No. 3 Tiberius Mercurius (5-1)

Tiberius Mercurius is reunited with win rider Umberto Rispoli who rode June 19th here off a seven-month break and won going a mile. Next out going slightly longer under Flavien Prat the horse ran third losing by a length after taking the lead at the top of the stretch and being caught late. Last out, again at Del Mar, he was pulled hard heading into the stretch losing a lot of momentum. Tiberius finished strong considering what happened. Rispoli is winning 24% for trainer John Sadler this summer. 5-1 is great value and likely to tick higher for us.

Saturday’s result: Blue Sky Baby was bet to 2-1 joint favorite and tracked in third but didn’t look comfortable and ran off the board.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Big races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday.

Woodbine (3): Grade 3 $125,000 Ontario Fashion Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Painting ($4.30)

Monmouth (5): $100,000 Violet Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Winner: She’s Got You ($5.40)

Delaware (4): $100,000 Tax Free Shopping Distaff Stakes, Del-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Madam Meena ($8.00)

Gulfstream (6): $150,000 FTBOA Florida Sire Wildcat Heir Stakes, Fla-breds 3 and up, 1 mile. Winner: Noble Drama ($4.20)

Delaware (5): $100,000 Small Wonder Stakes, Del-bred fillies 2-years-old, 5 ½ furlongs, Winner: Street Lute ($6.40)

Woodbine (5): $126,800 maiden special weight, fillies 2-years-old, 7 furlongs. Winner: Souper Sensational ($4.70)

Gulfstream (8): $400,000 FTBOA Florida Sire My Dear Girl Stakes, Fla-bred fillies 2-years-old, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Princess Secret ($7.00)

Woodbine (7): $123,200 maiden special weight, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Feeling Funny ($3.40)

Santa Anita (3): Grade 2 $200,000 Chandelier Stakes, fillies 2-years-old, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Princess Noor ($2.40)

Belmont (8): Grade 3 Noble Damsel Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Winner: Viadera ($13.00)

Delaware (8): $100,000 New Castle Stakes, Del-breds 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Threes Over Deuces ($9.80)

Churchill (9): Grade 3 $100,000 Ack Ack Stakes, 3 and up, 1 mile. Winner: Mr. Money ($14.80)

Woodbine (8): $100,000 Belle Mahone Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Summer Sunday ($11.90)

Gulfstream (10): $400,000 FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality Stakes, Fla-bred 2-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Boca Boy ($26.20)

Belmont (9): Grade 2 $150,000 Vosburgh Stakes, 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Firenze Fire ($7.20)

Delaware (9): $100,000 First State Dash, Del-breds 2-years-old, 5 ½ furlongs. Winner: Singlino ($19.40)

Woodbine (9): $101,200 allowance, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs on turf. Winner: Roman d’Oro ($14.40)

Santa Anita (5): $100,000 Speakeasy Stakes, 2-year-olds, 5 ½ furlongs on turf. Winner: Amanzi Yimpilo ($7.20)

Santa Anita (7): Grade 1 $300,000 Rodeo Drive Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 ¼ miles on turf. Winner: Winner: Mucho Unusual ($8.20)

Santa Anita (8): Grade 1 $300,000 American Pharoah Stakes, 2-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Get Her Number ($18.20)

Santa Anita (9): Grade 2 $200,000 John Henry Turf Championship, 3 and up, 1 ¼ miles on turf. Winner: United ($3.40)

Santa Anita (10): Grade 1 $300,000 Awesome Again Stakes, 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Improbable ($5.60)

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Sunday. All times PDT.

12:23 Woodbine (5): $126,800 maiden special weight. 2-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Excellorator (8-5)

12:56 Woodbine (6): $101,200 allowance, 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Forester’s Fortune (5-2)

1:29 Woodbine (7): $100,000 Victorian Queen Stakes, Ont-bred fillies 2-years-old, 7 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Mum’s the Word (5-2)

2:02 Woodbine (8): $112,500 allowance, 3 and up, 6 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Silent Poet (6-5)

2:07 Santa Anita (4): Grade 2 $200,000 Zenyatta Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Fighting Mad (2-5)

2:24 Remington (4): Grade 3 $100,000 Remington Park Oaks, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Envoutante (7-5)

2:35 Woodbine (9): $100,000 Bull Page Stakes, Ont-bred 2-year-olds, 7 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Dragon’s Brew (1-1)

3:37 Woodbine (10): $108,700 allowance optional claimer, 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Revved Up (2-1)

4:12 Santa Anita (8): Grade 2 $200,000 Santa Anita Sprint Championship, 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: C Z Rocket (8-5)

5:12 Remington (10): Grade 3 $200,000 Remington Derby, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Shared Sense (5-2)

5:14 Santa Anita (10): Grade 3 $100,000 Tokyo City Cup Stakes, 3 and up, 1 ½ miles. Favorite: Combatant (9-5)

8:55 Century Mile (10): Grade 3 $100,000 Canadian Derby, 3-year-olds, 1 ¼ miles. Favorite: Synergy (3-1)

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

SECOND RACE: No. 6 Rocky’s Show (4-1)

has been very consistent and has now hit the board in 12 straight efforts over this racing surface while racing during both day and night meets. In his most recent outing 14 nights ago, this runner broke on the lead and was well paced down the backstretch and through the turn before sailing away to a clear victory. That is just one of the many quality figures he’s amassed and his figure from that evening compares favorably in this affair for a solid shed-row. I am backing his gelding to be near the lead early on, sit a trip and catch a breather through the turn and hopefully kick to the wire at a nice price for a super jockey/trainer combo.

And now the stars of the show, Saturday’s results and Sunday’s entries.