Horse racing newsletter: New Kentucky Derby rankings before a big weekend

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as Santa Anita welcomes back fans.

Before we get to the good stuff, few needed to be reminded that today is the first day in more than a year that Santa Anita is allowing fans. Capacity is limited and everyone must have a ticket in advance. There is no walkup. Tickets can be bought at the track’s website for $10 or $20, and that includes a seat, program and parking. There is limited food and beverage.

Jon White’s Kentucky Derby rankings

Jon White is back with his Triple Crown rankings. Jon is one of the foremost historians on horse racing as well as being the morning-line maker at Santa Anita and Del Mar. He even has done stints as a steward. He does it all. So, let’s get right to it with his Kentucky Derby rankings as we head into the biggest Derby prep weekend of the year. It’s brought to you courtesy of Xpressbet.com. Take it away, Jon.

“Three important 1 1/8-mile races will be run in California, Kentucky and New York on Saturday to provide plenty of action on the Kentucky Derby trail.

“The first four finishers in the Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and Wood Memorial at Aqueduct will earn 100-40-20-10 qualifying points toward a starting berth in the 147th running of the $3 million Run for the Roses. The 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby will be held at Churchill Downs on May 1.

“Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby has enticed a field of 10. Life Is Good, trained by Bob Baffert, would have been an overwhelming favorite. However, Life Is Good is currently on the shelf due to a left-hind injury.

“Medina Spirit, who also resides at Baffert’s powerful Santa Anita barn, will try to step up and become a Santa Anita Derby winner in Life is Good’s absence.

“A Florida-bred Protonico colt, Medina Spirit has won two of four career starts. In both of Medina Spirit’s losses, he finished second to Life Is Good in Santa Anita stakes races, the Sham on Jan. 2 and San Felipe on March 6. In between those two defeats, Medina Spirit won Santa Anita’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Jan. 30.

“Baffert also is running recent maiden winner Defunded in the Santa Anita Derby.

“In terms of the Santa Anita Derby morning line, I installed Medina Spirit as the 5-2 favorite. Dream Shake is the 7-2 second choice. Rock Your World is 4-1. Roman Centurian, The Great One and Defunded are each 8-1. The others are all 10-1 or higher.

“Medina Spirit is No. 5 in this newsletter’s Kentucky Derby rankings, while Dream Shake is No. 10.

“Baffert has won the Santa Anita Derby a record nine times. Additionally, as Countdown to the Crown’s Jeremy Plonk has pointed out, Baffert’s recent dominance in Santa Anita’s graded stakes races for 3-year-olds going back to the 2019 Santa Anita Derby has been remarkable. Baffert has won nearly them all, as shown below:

“Trainer, Race, Winner

“—Baffert, 2021 San Felipe Stakes, Life Is Good

“—Baffert, 2021 San Vincente Stakes, Concert Tour

“—Baffert, 2021 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Medina Spirit

“—Baffert, 2021 Sham Stakes, Life is Good

“—John Shirreffs, 2020 Santa Anita Derby, Honor A.P.

“—Baffert, 2020 San Felipe Stakes, Authentic

“—Baffert, 2020 San Vicente Stakes, Nadal

“—Baffert, 2020 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Thousand Words

“—Baffert, 2020 Sham Stakes, Authentic

“—Baffert, 2019 Santa Anita Derby, Roadster

“Meanwhile, Eclipse Award winner Essential Quality, who is No. 1 in this newsletter’s Kentucky Derby rankings, attempts to keep his unblemished record intact when he faces eight in Saturday’s 1/8-mile Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.

“Trained by Brad Cox, Essential Quality is the 3-5 favorite on Mike Battaglia’s Blue Grass morning line. Highly Motivated is the 3-1 second choice. Keepmeinmind is 8-1. The remaining entrants are all 10-1 or higher.

“Essential Quality is two for two at Keeneland. He was victorious in the Breeders’ Futurity last Oct. 3, then concluded his abbreviated three-race 2-year-old campaign on Nov. 6 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which he won by three-quarters of a length. The Kentucky-bred Tapit colt subsequently was voted champion 2-year-old male of 2020.

“In his only 2021 start to date, Essential Quality showed no signs of rust. He splashed home a 4 1/4-length winner on a sloppy track in Oaklawn Park’s 1 1/6-mile Southwest Stakes on Feb. 27.

“Highly Motivated, trained by Chad Brown, won Keeneland’s 6 1/2-furlong Nyquist Stakes by 4 1/4 lengths last Nov. 6 at Keeneland in his final start as a 2-year-old. In his first race this year, Highly Motivated finished third in Aqueduct’s one-mile Gotham Stakes on Feb. 27.

“Keepmeinmind is No. 8 in my Kentucky Derby rankings. Trained by Robertino Diodoro, the Kentucky-bred Laoban colt finished second in last year’s Breeders’ Futurity and third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile before winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 28.

“After missing some training due to unusual wintry weather in Arkansas, Keepmeinmind finished sixth in Oaklawn’s 1 1/16-mile Rebel Stakes on March 13. He should benefit by now having that race under his belt.

“Listed at 15-1 on the Blue Grass morning line is Southern California-based Rombauer. Trained by Michael McCarthy, Rombauer finished fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when outrun by both Essential Quality and Keepmeinmind.

“Rombauer won the 1 1/8-mile El Camino Real Derby on synthetic footing Feb. 13 at Golden Gate Fields in his most recent start. John and Diane Fradkin of Santa Ana own and bred the Twirling Candy colt, who was foaled in Kentucky.

“McCarthy and the Fradkins opted to run Rombauer in the Blue Grass instead of the Santa Anita Derby. ‘Our decision to run in the Blue Grass was primarily an ABB decision: avoid Bob Baffert,’ John Fradkin said.

“The Wood Memorial has drawn a field of nine. David Aragona established Risk Taking as the 5-2 morning-line favorite. Prevalence is 3-1. Crowded Trade is 4-1. Weyburn is 9-2. Brooklyn Strong is 6-1. The others are all 12-1 or higher.

“Chad Brown conditions both Risk Taking and Crowded Trade.

“Risk Taking is No. 9 in this newsletter’s Kentucky Derby rankings. The Kentucky-bred Medaglia d’Oro colt won Aqueduct’s 1 1/8-mile Withers Stakes by 3 3/4 lengths on Feb. 6.

“Crowded Trade, in only the second start of his career, lost the Gotham Stakes by a nose on March 6 at the Big A when the Kentucky-bred More Than Ready colt finished second to Weyburn.

“Weyburn eked out the slim win in the Gotham while making his first start since Dec. 5. Jimmy Jerkens trains the Canadian-bred Pioneerof (cq) the Nile colt. Pioneerof the Nile is the sire of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.

“Here are this week’s Kentucky Derby rankings, courtesy of Xpressbet:

1. Essential Quality (1)

2. Concert Tour (2)

3. Hot Rod Charlie (3)

4. Known Agenda (NR)

5. Medina Spirit (5)

6. Greatest Honour (4)

7. Midnight Bourbon (7)

8. Keepmeinmind (8)

9. Risk Taking (9)

10. Dream Shake (10)

NOTE: Last week’s rankings in parentheses”

Oscar Gonzales gets new job

Oscar Gonzales, vice-chair of the California Horse Racing Board, was appointed Assistant Secretary for Administration at the U.S. Department of Agriculture by President Biden. He rejoins Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, for whom he was Deputy Assistant Secretary for Administration and Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations, during the Obama administration. Gonzales plans to remain on the Board, splitting his residence between Washington, D.C. and California. Alex Solis, also a Board member, is an assistant trainer in Kentucky and also splits his time. Gonzales has been one of the stronger advocates for change in California racing, at times clashing with chair Greg Ferraro and some industry stakeholders.

Santa Anita preview

If it wasn’t for the novelty of having fans back at Santa Anita for the first time in more than a year, Friday’s card is unremarkable, to be generous. Of course, the track is saving all its best stuff for Saturday’s big Santa Anita Derby card. There are eight races, starting at 1 p.m., and seven of them are claimers. Four of the races are on the turf. The only non-full-on claimer is an allowance/optional claimer for fillies and mares going a mile on the dirt. Pharoah’s Heart, at 6-5, is the favorite for trainer Mark Glatt and jockey John Velazquez. The 4-year-old filly won her first start in January and finished second in next (and last) start at a similar level. Crystal Ball is the 9-5 second choice for Bob Baffert and Flavien Prat. She is coming off a second and fifth in Grade 1s at Saratoga. She has one win in four lifetime starts. Post is around 4:15 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 8, 6, 7, 9 7, 7, 5, 9.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

FOURTH RACE: No. 9 Kitten’s Cat (12-1)

Kitten’s Cat drops in class for trainer Robert Falcone Jr. and is risked for a claim Friday in third start off the layoff since shipping in from Belmont. Falcone puts Umberto Rispoli in the irons and the first time Rispoli angle, especially on turf, has been potent this season. From four races this tandem has a win and two in the money finishes. This is the most wide-open race on the card Friday, and at 12-1 I like this value play. I see Umberto using that early speed from the nine post to angle over, sit back and pounce down the stretch for the win.

Sunday’s result: Styledome may have been hungover from St. Patrick’s Day, merely running around the track.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Los Alamitos weekend preview

Los Alamitos is the only game in town at night. So, let’s turn things over to marketing and media guru Orlando Gutierrez. Orlando, the floor is yours.

“Los Alamitos Race Course will once again be open to the public and is ready to welcome horse racing fans for the first time in more than a year starting at 6 p.m. Friday with an eight-race program.

“The card has straightaway quarter horse racing with four of those being 2-year-olds. A total of 29 juveniles will compete on Friday from races three to six. The field sizes are 6,8,7 and 8. Keep an eye on Valente One, a $60,000 purchase at the Ruidoso Sale last year, as he’ll debut in the fifth. Hitters Count is another promising youngster and he’ll be in the sixth.

“The feature is the $13,200 allowance in the eighth and will include Los Alamitos Maiden Stakes winner Communicate, who won the $101,250 race at 7-1 odds.

“Ten races are on tap for Saturday night including six consecutive straightaway races late in the card. The program also has four races around the turn, making up the Early Pick Four. The card has three races for 2-year-old quarter horses plus an allowance at 330 yards. Top names in the allowance include AP A Special Takeoff, who raced in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Winter Derby. He won his trial impressively by 1 ½ lengths. His list of rivals will include Rox Win, second to Teller With Candy in the Corona Chick Handicap last year, and Racie, third after showing good speed against recent 110-yard track record setter Teller Jazz MRL in an allowance at 330 yards.

“The juvenile races include Resurrection Man, who looked promising posting the fastest of 48 gate works on March 20. He’ll take on Chizum, who was purchased for $150,000 at the Ruidoso Yearling Sale last year. There are six other freshman runners in the seventh on Saturday.

“Fans are reminded that Los Alamitos will not race Easter Sunday night, but will be open during the daytime for simulcasting.

“Looking back at last weekend’s stakes for 3-year-olds, Apollitical Patty enjoyed another sensational and lucrative score with a gate to wire two-length victory in the Grade 3, $427,500 Los Alamitos Oaks on Saturday. The overwhelming favorite at 1-5, Apollitical Patty lived up to the big expectations covering the 400 yards in a meet best :19.472 seconds for jockey Armando Cervantes and trainer Monty Arrossa. The filly wasn’t perfect, as she broke to the inside leaving the gate, but was like a rocket from there.

Homebred colt Favorite Colossus fought back from fifth place and 1 ¼ lengths behind at the start to outduel fastest qualifier Constituent by a nose at odds of 11-1 to win the Grade 3, $225,200 El Primero Del Año Derby on Sunday.

“The El Primero Del Año translates to The First of The Year. For Favorite Colossus and his connections, this graded stakes was the first of their racing careers. 21-year-old jockey Irving Lara to former leading rider and now trainer Cesar De Alba, who won the El Primero during his riding days with the great champion Moonist in 2014, each of them got to celebrate their first graded stakes win ever.

“’I was watching, and I couldn’t believe that he got there,’ De Alba said. ‘I try not to get too excited, but I got excited. It’s amazing because I’ve only been [training] for two years. It took me five, six or seven years, I can’t remember how long, to win one of these (graded stakes) as a jockey.”

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

SECOND RACE: No. 4 Mr Clutch

He finished a solid third in a much-needed effort over this racing surface 20 nights ago when bobbling harshly away from the gate to lose multiple lengths of ground and his early racing momentum. After the tough getaway, he traveled with a steady pace down the backside while angling in to the rail prior to putting down a big run through the turn and down the lane to finish third. He should improve his interior speed, as they usually do in their second start here, and he’ll be a decent price for a shed-row that enjoys good success at Los Alamitos.

And now here’s the star of the show, Friday’s entries.