Horse racing newsletter: Jon White’s Kentucky Derby rankings

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as you need to remember there is no Friday racing at Santa Anita this Friday and next Friday.

Now, on to the good stuff.

Jon White’s Kentucky Derby rankings

Jon White is back with his Triple Crown rankings. Jon is one of the foremost historians on horse racing as well as being the morning-line maker at Santa Anita and Del Mar. He even has done stints as a steward. He does it all. So, let’s get right to it with his Kentucky Derby rankings as we head into the biggest Derby prep weekend of the year. It’s brought to you courtesy of Xpressbet.com. Take it away, Jon.

“Essential Quality got the job done in Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes to remain undefeated in addition to retaining the No. 1 spot in this newsletter’s Kentucky Derby rankings. Rock Your World rolled to an emphatic Santa Anita Derby victory, accomplished in front-running fashion. And Bourbonic registered a record upset in Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial.

“That all happened last Saturday.

“Essential Quality had a battle on his hands in the Blue Grass. Highly Motivated set the pace, with Essential Quality sitting just off that rival. With a furlong to go, Highly Motivated led by a half-length and was resolutely keeping to his task.

“Could Highly Motivated cling to the lead all the way to the finish line and spoil Essential Quality’s perfect record? He darn near did. Essential Quality just got up in the final yards to prevail by a neck as the 1-2 favorite in the field of nine. Highly Motivated had to settle for second. Southern California-based Rombauer finished third, 5 1/2 lengths behind Highly Motivated.

“Essential Quality is now five for five, the closest call of his career.

“One of Essential Quality’s strengths is his ability to adapt. He has won when close to the pace and from far off the pace. He has won when the track is dry or wet. Essential Quality also has a victory at Churchill Downs. He overcame a troubled trip to kick off his racing career with a four-length win in a six-furlong maiden race at Churchill last Sept. 5.

“According to trainer Brad Cox, the plan is for Essential Quality to have two workouts at Churchill leading up to the Kentucky Derby on May 1. ‘He really showed us a gutsy effort in the Blue Grass,’ Cox said. ‘I think he’ll get a lot out of that race by how hard he had to work for the win.’

“Rock Your World, trained by John Sadler, was two for two going into his dirt debut in the Santa Anita Derby. Unraced as a 2-year-old, Rock Your World began his racing career by winning a Santa Anita maiden contest by 1 3/4 lengths at six furlongs on turf Jan. 1. In the ensuing one-mile Pasadena Stakes on turf Feb. 27, Rock Your World exhibited marvelous acceleration during the stretch run and won going away by 2 1/4 lengths.

“Rock Your World, ridden by Umberto Rispoli, was sent away at odds of 5-1. The Kentucky-bred Candy Ride colt took the early lead and remained in charge all the way to the top of the lane. Rock Your World increased his advantage to 2 1/2 lengths at the eighth pole, then came home strongly to expand it even more to 4 1/4 lengths at the finish. Medina Spirit finished second in the field of nine. Dream Shake, off at odds of 9-2, came in third, 2 1/4 lengths behind Medina Spirit. Rock Your World galloped out far in front of his opponents after passing the finish line, which would seem to bode well for him vis-a-vis his longer race next time in Louisville.

“Rock Your World provided a jubilant Rispoli with his first Grade 1 win in the U.S.

“This was Sadler’s second Santa Anita Derby victory. He also won the 2010 renewal (on a synthetic surface) with Sidney’s Candy, another son of Candy Ride. Sidney’s Candy subsequently finished 17th in the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby, which that year was won by Super Saver.

“Bob Baffert was thwarted in his bid for a 10th Santa Anita Derby win when Medina Spirit lost and Defunded finished fourth in only his third career start and stakes debut. Still, beginning with the 2019 Santa Anita Derby victory by the Baffert-trained Roadster, it is remarkable that Baffert has won nine of the last 11 graded stakes races on dirt for 3-year-old males at Santa Anita. The only two exceptions during this period were Rock Your World last Saturday and Honor A.P., trained by John Shirreffs, in the 2020 Santa Anita Derby.

“Rock Your World debuts in this newsletter’s Kentucky Derby rankings this week all the way up at No. 3. Medina Spirit drops from No. 5 to No. 7 following his defeat in the Santa Anita Derby.

“The Blue Grass, Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial all offered 100-40-20-10 qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby.

“The Wood’s 100 points were scooped up by the longest shot in the race, Bourbonic, who rallied from last to win by a head for trainer Todd Pletcher. Dynamic One, also trained by Pletcher, finished second at odds of 15-1.

“Bourbonic completed his 1 1/8-mile journey in 1:54.49. The Kentucky-bred Bernardini colt returned $146.50 for each $2 win wager. According to Daily Racing Form’s David Grening, it was the highest win mutuel in the 96-year history of the Wood, eclipsing the $129.50 Manassa Mauler paid in 1959.

“This week we come to the end of the road in terms of races offering any Kentucky Derby points.

“Saturday’s 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn is the final race to reward the first four finishers with 100-40-20-10 Kentucky Derby points. The 1 1/16-mile Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday has 20-8-4-2 Kentucky Derby points up for grabs.

“Concert Tour, yet another who resides at Baffert’s powerful Santa Anita barn, heads a field of six in the Arkansas Derby. The Kentucky-bred Street Sense colt is the even-money favorite on the morning line. Baffert also conditions the 3-1 second favorite, Hozier. Caddo River is 7-2. Super Stock and Get Her Number are each 6-1, while Last Samurai rounds out the lineup at 15-1.

“Everyone except Last Samurai exits Oaklawn’s 1 1/16-mile Rebel Stakes in which Concert Tour seized the early lead and went on to win authoritatively by 4 1/4 lengths to remain unbeaten in three career starts. Hozier finished second, Super Stock fourth, Caddo River fifth and Get Her Number a troubled seventh.

“Caddo River, who races for John Ed Anthony (Shortleaf Stables), has the same trainer as Essential Quality. Going into the Rebel, Caddo River had won back-to-back races by 9 1/2 and 10 1/4 lengths when leading from gate to finish.

“Cox and Anthony have expressed a belief that it backfired when an attempt was made to rate 6-5 favorite Caddo River early in the Rebel. It’s being anticipated that jockey Florent Geroux will be riding Caddo River a whole lot more aggressively after leaving the starting gate this time, much like what you typically see early in a 350-yard quarter horse race at Los Alamitos.

“It is to Concert Tour’s credit that he has proven that he does not need to get the early lead in order to win. After rating comfortably just off the early pace set by the Baffert-trained Freedom Fighter, Concert Tour got up to win Santa Anita’s seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes by a half-length on Feb. 6.

“Concert Tour’s sire won the 2007 Kentucky Derby.

“Saturday’s Lexington has attracted a field of 10. The 6-5 morning-line favorite is Proxy, who finished fourth in the Louisiana Derby.

“In a pretty major shakeup, four horses drop off this newsletter’s Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week: Greatest Honour, Keepmeinmind, Risk Taking and Dream Shake.

“Greatest Honour, who was No. 6 last week, did not come out of his third-place finish in the March 27 Florida Derby to the satisfaction of trainer Shug McGaughey. Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman reported that McGaughey had Greatest Honour examined recently by noted equine veterinarian Larry Bramlage. The decision was made to give Greatest Honour 60 days off, with the first 30 days turned out at a farm, where the winner of the Holy Bull Stakes and Fountain of Youth Stakes is at the present time.

“In a horseracingnation.com story co-written by Carolyn Greer and Ron Flatter, McGaughey said the time off stems from ankle trouble. ‘It’s not anything we’ve got to operate on,’ McGaughey said. ‘He just needs a little bit of time. He’s a little banged up.’

“The losing efforts last Saturday by Keepmeinmind (fifth in the Blue Grass), Risk Taking and Dream Shake have led to their departure from this week’s rankings.

“In addition to Rock Your World, Highly Motivated is new on this week’s rankings at No. 6 after nearly defeating Essential Quality in the Blue Grass.

“The other two newcomers this week are Mandaloun and Helium.

“Mandaloun gets back onto the Top 10 at No. 9 because he has been training with verve to suggest he might rebound in the Kentucky Derby after finishing a head-scratching sixth as the 13-10 favorite in the March 20 Louisiana Derby. The Louisiana Derby was won by Hot Rod Charlie, who is No. 4 in this week’s rankings.

“Helium, undefeated in three career starts, is No. 10 this week. He won the Tampa Bay Derby in his 2021 debut and first start on dirt.

“Here are this week’s Kentucky Derby rankings, courtesy of Xpressbet:

1. Essential Quality (1)

2. Concert Tour (2)

3. Rock Your World (NR)

4. Hot Rod Charlie (3)

5. Known Agenda (4)

6. Highly Motivated (NR)

7. Medina Spirit (5)

8. Midnight Bourbon (7)

9. Mandaloun (NR)

10. Helium (NR)

NOTE: Last week’s rankings in parentheses”

CHRB under scrutiny

On Monday, the California Senate turned down the reappointment of commissioner Wendy Mitchell, 17-20. In September, she was unanimously approved to fulfill the end of a term which, well, she had already mostly served. So, when it came time for her reappointment, Mitchell did not have to appear before the Rules Committee garnering a 5-0 endorsement. On Monday, it came to a vote and at 2:30 p.m. she had a big edge in her favor. But, legislators have the ability to change their vote during the process and after an hour of non-public talk on the floor a clear majority for reappointment turned to a slim majority to deny the appointment.

What makes this so unusual is that no Governor appointment has been turned down in at least 20 years. That’s a little misleading in that if someone doesn’t appear to have the votes, they are persuaded to withdraw their name before the vote. This time, the “no” votes caught everyone by surprise, especially those in Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office.

Every Republican, all nine of them, voted against Mitchell. Twelve Democrats voted for her and 11 against. There were three non-voters. You can read the story I wrote on the vote on Tuesday. Just click here.

I’ll be delving into the makeup of the CHRB in one of the next few newsletters. So, stay tuned.

Los Alamitos weekend preview

Los Alamitos is the only game in town at night. So, let’s turn things over to marketing and media guru Orlando Gutierrez. Orlando, the floor is yours.

“Live racing continues at Los Alamitos with the 40^th racing program of the meet on Friday night. Eight races are in the Early Pick Four with all races around the turn and the Late Pick Four featuring races for 2-year-old quarter horses. Los Alamitos is allowing fans and tickets can be purchased online at LosAlamitos.com.

“Paul Jones, quarter horses’ all-time leading trainer in earnings with more than $88 million, is looking to unveil a couple of stars. In the fifth, Jones will saddle New York Teller MRL, a Brazilian-bred filly by Teller Cartel who posted the second fastest 220-yard morning work on March 2 before returning with the fastest of 48 drills at that same distance on March 20. The filly is well drawn for her debut, as she will start from the six for this 220-yard race. This post should allow her the best opportunity to have a clean trip as in both of her morning works she left the gate towards the inside before moving back outside. Ramon Sanchez, a two-time AQHA champion jockey, is back to riding after several quiet years. Sanchez is currently the meet’s third leading straightaway rider with 14 wins. His mounts are winning at 34%.

“In the eighth, Sanchez and Jones will then team up with Griffindore, a Corona Cartel colt who was a $120,000 purchase at the Heritage Place September Yearling Sale. Griffindore worked alongside New York Teller MRL on March 20 when getting bumped lightly before finishing nicely. Griffindore’s first gate work came on Feb. 27 when he posted the fastest of 19 drills. Griffindore will start from post six in the 300-yard dash.

“Other juveniles to watch on Friday include Boogies Best Dream, a half-sister to AQHA champion and PCQHRA Horse of the Year J Fire Up, and Crystal Prize, a half-sister to AQHA champion Walk Thru Crystal. They’ll face off in the sixth. The seventh will be led by Majority Interest, who is a half-brother to Grade 1 winners Powerful Favorite and Runforyourlife.

“There are a couple of returning starters including Red Hot Topic, who finished fourth in his debut when taking on the exciting sprinter Mookkie on March 26. Red Hot Topic is the 7-5 favorite in the sixth race.

“The carousel of top juveniles will continue Saturday night with 20 juveniles divided in three races as part of the eight-race program. Many of these runners are preparing for the trials to the Grade 2 Robert Adair Kindergarten Futurity taking place during the final Sunday of April.

“Fortunate Corona is among the top young starts to watch and will make his racing debut in the fifth at 220 yards. The Monty Arrossa-trainee posted the fourth fastest of 21 drills on what turned out to be a morning of quick workout times on March 27. The son of Corona Cartel covered the distance in :12.20 and that’s even with a slight bobble leaving the gate. Jose Nicasio will ride.

“Other young runners to watch on this night include Seems Up, who posted a very professional workout when covering the 220 yards in :12.50 also on March 27, and Lukka, a Texas-bred colt sired by the Eclipse Award winning thoroughbred Favorite Trick.

“After Easter off, racing returns here on Sunday night. Remember, the $10,000 Pick 6 Promo remains in place at Los Alamitos. If there’s not a carryover going into Sunday’s card, the track will seed the Pick 6 pool with $10,000.

“Top 10 lists are always popular, especially with the Kentucky Derby just around the corner. I’m joining in with my own top 10 list, this one counting down the top 10 Quarter Horse juveniles that have already raced at Los Alamitos this season. The trials to the track’s first futurity, the Grade 2 Robert Adair Kindergarten, will take place on Sunday, April 25.

1. Valente One – Won debut by a ½ length against Jess Hez On Fire.

2. La Blue Amore – Filly won gate to wire by 1 ¼ lengths in a fast :12.212.

3. New And Better – By freshman sire Fly Thru The Fire, he overcame trouble to win.

4. Unavailable – Held off Woman Secrets in debut, who returned to win at 300 yards.

5. Docs Fastlane – Found early trouble but still posted meet’s fastest 220 time in win.

6. Quarrelsome – Won debut by daylight and dam is the champion Quirky.

7. Mookkie – Strong finish in debut and his sire was outstanding at 400 and 440 yards.

8. Woman Secrets – Made experience count, as he won second start by a length.

9. Powerhouse – Ramon Sanchez never moved a muscle in guiding him to 12-1 upset win.

10. FG Jess Seis – Not the fastest out of the gate, but he’ll love the extra distance.”

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

He went well for the runner-up placing in his return to the Los Alamitos racing surface 13 nights ago after a less than productive trip to Turf Paradise. In his local return effort, the veteran sprinter broke a tad slow and showed his typical running style—no interior speed—when tailing off to trail the field of seven by many a length. With a tough journey to overcome, this gelding started to gather a big head of steam heading into the turn when saving all the ground running on the rail throughout. With some tiring rivals to evade down the lane, he maneuvered in and out while flying inside the 1/16th pole to almost catch a perfect tripped winner in Tina’s Exchange. He’ll face Tina’s Exchange once again Friday. With the likely step forward in his second start back here along with three speed rivals that will fight for the lead, we’ll look for the race to set up his way to give him an opportunity to go past his opponents in the late going at a nice price.

See you tomorrow with Saturday’s entries.