Newsletter: Lakers newsletter: Who the Lakers could (and should want) to play in the first round

Hi, this is Dan Woike, Lakers beat writer for the Los Angeles Times, here with your Lakers newsletter. Did you hear that alert on your device? Haven’t added this email address to VIP settings? Well, I’ll forgive you. (BUT I WILL NOT FORGET). Seriously, thanks for making room in the inbox every week, giving me a chance to vent about what’s on my mind.

And this week, it’s the playoffs.

While we don’t know how things are going to break over the next two-plus weeks, we can make some reasonable judgments about who the Lakers could see in the first round of the playoffs (and who they should probably most want to play).

If not impossible, unlikely – Dallas, Portland, Golden State, Memphis, San Antonio, New Orleans, Sacramento and anyone else not mathematically eliminated

With 11 games left, the Lakers probably aren’t going to climb to the top three without some of the teams ahead of them just deciding to not play any more games over the final two weeks. And the Lakers are probably not going to dip into the play-in pool either, not with LeBron James on his way back (and maybe before I write this newsletter next week) and Anthony Davis looking pretty healthy.

Let’s get weird – Phoenix or Utah

Lakers guard Dennis Schroder struggles to cover Phoenix Suns guard Chris Paul.

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

These scenarios require the Clippers leap-frogging one of the Western frontrunners and the Lakers sliding back a spot, setting up a 3-6 meeting that would be just a total bummer for either of these two teams that had such great regular seasons.

Imagine being the Utah Jazz, a team that’s slowly built on a foundation year after year to become a credible contender, only to run into the defending champions in the first round. The conventional wisdom would say that you always take the team with the best player in a series, and the Lakers would have the two best players in a meeting with Utah.

And then there’s the Suns, maybe Chris Paul’s last and best chance to win a NBA title beginning with a first-round meeting with one of his best friends, LeBron James. Considering the Suns are full of players with as much playoff experience as the slow-footed, sweet-shooting fella writing all of this, running into the Lakers isn’t so much being thrown into the deep end as it is being thrown into the deep end with a cement NBA championship trophy tethered to your ankle.

Despite totally outplaying the Lakers over the course of this season, it’s hard to imagine either being favored in a meeting with a healthy Lakers team in round one.

Oh, come on! – Clippers

One of the perks awaiting the NBA writers covering the Lakers this season is the promise of a tiny sliver of normalcy in the postseason – a life back in airports, on planes, in hotels and at restaurants following the Lakers wherever they begin their road to repeating.

So, about that…

There are definite roads to the Lakers opening their postseason in Los Angeles against the Clippers. It could happen if Denver surges and the Clippers cool down. And it could happen if Phoenix and Utah hold off the Clippers while the Lakers drop some games re-integrating LeBron James and fall to the No. 6 spot in the West.

Plenty of people around the league think these are the two best teams in the West, so this would be bad news for everyone – LeBron, AD, Kawhi, PG and travel-starved NBA scribes.

It would be awesome to see these two teams finally square off. It would also be great if it happened as deep into the playoffs as possible, ensuring that the stakes would be higher and that Staples Center would be fuller.

The smart money – Denver Nuggets

Denver’s Michael Porter Jr. drives against Kyle Kuzma.

(Associated Press)

This is where things stand if the playoffs began today, and it’s not too straining to imagine the Lakers keeping Dallas from catching them. And even if things go great for them over these final 11 games, they’re probably not moving any higher than the fourth seed.

So that leaves the Nuggets, a team still with plenty of talent after losing Jamal Murray for the season. Nikola Jokic might end up as MVP, Aaron Gordon could end up being the highest-impact player dealt midseason and Michael Porter Jr. is making a Bob Beamon right in front of us.

Since the All-Star break (remember that happened?), Porter Jr. is averaging 22.5 points and 8.1 rebounds, making 47.1% from three on more than six attempts per game. In the history of this sport, only three players have ever shot better than 47% from three on more than six attempts – Stephen Curry (twice), J.J. Redick and Joe Harris, who is doing it this season.

So Denver’s no slouch. But of the options…it might end up being the best. And that’s good news, because it’s also the most likely.

Song of the Week

“The Waiting” by Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers, featuring Eddie Vedder

“The Waiting” by Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers (featuring Eddie Vedder)

Back in 2006, Pearl Jam opened for Tom Petty for a stretch of shows, and I was lucky enough to get to be there live in Milwaukee. I am, however, not lucky enough to have attended a concert that was filmed with anything other than one of those Nokia phones that are shaped like small plastic bricks.

So, here’s another night where this special duet occurred, a reminder of how great things can happen when great performers are on the stage together.

Remember that Lakers fans? It’s been a while. But remember -- every day you get one more yard.

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