Dodgers Dugout: Previewing the NLDS against the Giants

Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell, and I hope you enjoyed the one-day break, because the fun ramps up starting today.

—One more note about Wednesday’s win over St. Louis. I believe a lot of people felt this way: My wife talked to her aunt, Connie Hernandez, 90, after the game and said she was in tears when Chris Taylor hit his home run because “It has been such a tough year for everyone, and this brought some joy to us all.”

—Of course my daughter, Hannah, 20, said “I had tears of joy, too. Joy that the game was finally over.” She must be adopted.

—The Dodgers take on San Francisco in one of the two NLDS (the Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves play in the other one). I believe whichever team wins this series will go on to win the World Series.

—It’s a shame these teams meet in a five-game NLDS instead of the seven-game NLCS, but that’s the way it works, so no sense complaining.

—Get ready to be annoyed by the “Beat LA” chants. I mean, the people live in high-priced San Francisco. Chants are all they can afford.

—The Giants have a great team. All season long, people expected them to collapse and they never did. There’s no reason to think they will now. It’s going to be a tough series.

—The mastermind behind the Giants is Farhan Zaidi, who worked for the Dodgers under Andrew Friedman until the Giants lured him away. They are managed by Gabe Kapler, who was a leading candidate to become the Dodgers manager before Dave Roberts got the job.

—A couple of former Dodgers are on the Giants: Pitchers Alex Wood and Jake McGee. McGee was the Giants’ main closer (31 saves) until he was injured in September. He was replaced by Camilo Doval, who pitched 14.1 scoreless innings in September, giving up seven hits and three walks while striking out 20. They also have Tyler Rogers, who had 13 saves this season. Who will be the closer against the Dodgers? Kapler isn’t saying, but I’m sure they will play the percentages and go with what the best matchups are, so we could see all three in the role at some point.

—The Giants will be without their top home run hitter, Brandon Belt, who has a broken thumb. And the Dodgers will be without their top home run hitter, Max Muncy, so that’s a wash.

—The Dodgers can adjust their roster for the NLDS, so don’t expect to see 16 hitters and 10 pitchers this time. More like 13 and 13.

—This is, of course, the first time the Dodgers and Giants have met in the postseason, but that’s not to say they haven’t had many dramatic moments that had a postseason atmosphere. More on that later.

Let’s look at some numbers, and then I will give you my prediction for the series.

Season series: Giants, 10-9

Run differential
Dodgers: +269, best in baseball
Giants: +210, second-best in baseball

Record in first half
Dodgers: 56-35
Giants: 57-32

Record in second half
Dodgers: 50-21
Giants: 50-23

Record in extra innings
Dodgers: 6-13
Giants: 10-9

Record in one-run games
Dodgers: 24-24
Giants: 31-17

Days in first place this season
Dodgers: 28
Giants: 151

Walkoff wins
Dodgers: 3
Giants: 5

Walkoff losses
Dodgers: 9
Giants: 10

Runs scored
Dodgers: 830 (1st in NL)
Giants: 804 (2nd)

Doubles
Giants: 271 (6th)
Dodgers: 247 (11th)

Triples
Giants: 25 (5th)
Dodgers: 24 (6th)

Home runs
Giants: 241 (1st)
Dodgers: 237 (3rd)

Stolen bases
Giants: 66 (8th)
Dodgers: 65 (9th)

Batter Walks
Dodgers: 613 (1st)
Giants: 602 (2nd)

Batter Strikeouts
Giants: 1,461 (5th)
Dodgers: 1,408 (8th)

Batting average
Giants: .249 (2nd)
Dodgers: .244 (6th)

OB%
Dodgers: .330 (2nd)
Giants: .329 (3rd)

SLG%
Giants: .440 (1st)
Dodgers: .429 (4th)

Batting with runners in scoring position
Dodgers: .262 (4th)
Giants: .256 (5th)

Batting with two out and runners in scoring position
Dodgers: .249 (2nd)
Giants: .222 (10th)

ERA
Dodgers: 3.01 (1st)
Giants: 3.24 (2nd)

Shutouts
Giants: 18 (3rd)
Dodgers: 17 (4th)

Home runs allowed
Giants: 151 (fewest)
Dodgers: 161 (third fewest)

Pitcher walks
Giants: 416 (fewest)
Dodgers: 486 (third fewest)

Pitcher strikeouts
Dodgers: 1,599 (1st)
Giants: 1,425 (7th)

Starters’ ERA
Dodgers: 2.93 (1st)
Giants: 3.44 (3rd)

Bullpen ERA
Giants: 2.99 (1st)
Dodgers: 3.16 (2nd)

Fielding errors
Dodgers: 89 (eight most)
Giants: 80 (12th)

Defensive efficiency rating (% of balls in play turned into outs)
Dodgers: 72.3% (1st)
Giants: 70.7% (5th)

Probable starters

Catcher
Dodgers: Will Smith, .258/.365/.495, 19 doubles, 25 homers, 130 OPS+
Giants: Buster Posey, .304/.390/.499, 23 doubles, 18 homers, 140 OPS+

First base
Dodgers: Cody Bellinger, .165/.240/.302, 9 doubles, 10 homers, 45 OPS+
Cardinals: Darin Ruf, .271/.385/.519, 13 doubles, 16 homers, 143 OPS+

The Giants could also use Wilmer Flores or LaMonte Wade Jr. at first.

Second base
Dodgers: Trea Turner, .328/.375/.536, 34 doubles, 28 homers, 146 OPS+
Giants: Donovan Solano, .280/.344/.404, 17 doubles, 7 homers, 103 OPS+

Tommy La Stella will likely get some time at second for the Giants.

Third base
Dodgers: Justin Turner, .278/.361/.471, 22 doubles, 27 homers, 123 OPS+
Giants: Evan Longoria, .261/.351/.482, 17 doubles, 13 homers, 124 OPS+

Shortstop
Dodgers: Corey Seager, .306/.394/.521, 22 doubles, 16 homers, 145 OPS+
Giants: Brandon Crawford, .298/.373/.522, 30 doubles, 24 homers, 141 OPS+

Left field
Dodgers: AJ Pollock, .297/.355/.536, 27 doubles, 21 homers, 137 OPS+
Giants: Kris Bryant, .265/.353/.481, 32 doubles, 25 homers, 124 OPS+

Center field
Dodgers: Chris Taylor, .254/.344/.438, 25 doubles, 20 homers, 110 OPS+
Giants: Mike Yastrzemski, .224/.311/.457, 28 doubles, 25 homers, 106 OPS+

Right field
Dodgers: Mookie Betts, .264/.367/.487, 29 double, 23 homers, 128 OPS+
Giants: LaMonte Wade Jr., .253/.326/.482, 17 doubles, 18 homers, 117 OPS+

Closer
Dodgers: Kenley Jansen, 4-4, 2.22 ERA, 38 saves, 69 IP, 36 hits, 36 walks, 86 strikeouts, 5 blown saves, 13% IRS%
Giants: Jake McGee, 3-2, 2.72 ERA, 31 saves, 59.2 IP, 44 hits, 10 walks, 58 strikeouts, 5 blown saves, 33% IRS%
Giants: Camilo Doval, 5-1, 3.00 ERA, 3 saves, 27 IP, 19 hits, 9 walks, 37 strikeouts, 3 blown saves, 36% IRS%

So, who’s going to win? It could go either way. Last season, the Dodgers were clearly the best team in baseball, and it wasn’t difficult to predict them to win every series. This one is different. But, I think the Dodgers are on a roll right now.

Prediction: Dodgers in five.

Series schedule

Game 1: Tonight, Dodgers (Walker Buehler, 16-4, 2.47 ERA) at San Francisco (Logan Webb, 11-3, 3.03 ERA), 6:30 p.m., TBS, AM 570, KTNQ 1020, ESPN radio

Game 2: Saturday, Dodgers (Julio Urías, 20-3, 2.96 ERA) at San Francisco (Kevin Gausman, 14-6, 2.81 ERA), 6 p.m., TBS, AM 570, KTNQ 1020, ESPN radio

Game 3: Monday, San Francisco (TBD) at Dodgers (TBD), 6:30 p.m, TBS, AM 570, KTNQ 1020, ESPN radio

Game 4*: Tuesday, San Francisco (TBD) at Dodgers (TBD), 6 p.m., TBS, AM 570, KTNQ 1020, ESPN radio

Game 5*: Thursday, Dodgers (TBD) at San Francisco (TBD), 6 p.m., TBS, AM 570, KTNQ 1020, ESPN radio

*-if necessary

Some key moments in the Dodgers-Giants rivalry

1934

Before the season, a reporter asks New York Giants Manager Bill Terry to sum up the competition. Terry neglects to mention the perennial league doormat and is asked, “What about Brooklyn?”

Terry’s response: “Brooklyn? Are they still in the league?”

With two games to go in the season, the Giants are tied with St. Louis and their Gashouse Gang for first place. Both of the Giants’ games are against Brooklyn, who enter series 69-81 and 23 1/2 games out of first. The Dodgers win both games, proving they were indeed still in the league, and the Giants finish two games short of the pennant.

1951

While not a postseason series, it had all the drama of one. The Dodgers and Giants end the season with identical 96-58 records, necessitating a best-of-three series to determine the pennant.

Game 1: The Giants win 3-1 with the key blow a two-run home run by Bobby Thomson off Ralph Branca in the fourth inning.

Game 2: The Dodgers win a 10-0 rout as they get homers from Jackie Robinson, Gil Hodges, Andy Pafko and Rube Walker.

Game 3: The Dodgers take a 4-1 lead into the bottom of the ninth. The Giants’ Alvin Dark and Don Mueller lead off with singles. Monte Irvin pops to first and Whitey Lockman doubles to left-center, scoring Dark with Mueller going to third. Dodger manager Chuck Dressen has two pitchers warming up in the bullpen, Carl Erskine and Branca, the Game 1 starter. When he calls to the bullpen, coach Clyde Sukeforth informs him, “They’re both ready, however Erskine is bouncing his overhand curve.”

So Dressen goes with Branca to replace Don Newcombe. On Branca’s second pitch, Bobby Thomson homers to left for the victory. In 2017, MLB names it the most iconic home run in baseball history.

1962

Another three-game playoff series to determine the NL champion.

Game 1: The Dodgers’ main threat is Maury Wills, who stole a record 104 bases that season. Before Game 1, the Giants heavily water the dirt around first base to stop Wills from stealing. The Giants win, 8-0, defeating Sandy Koufax.

Game 2: Tied 7-7 going into the bottom of the ninth, Wills leads off with a walk, followed by a walk to Jim Gilliam. Daryl Spencer hit for Duke Snider and laid down a sacrifice bunt, advancing the runners. Tommy Davis was walked intentionally, then Ron Fairly hit a sacrifice fly to win the game.

Game 3: Another heart-breaking ending. The Dodgers lead 6-4 going into the top of the ninth. Ed Roebuck is pitching for the Dodgers, not Ralph Branca, but the result is similar. Matty Alou leads off with a single and is forced at second on Harvey Kuenn’s grounder. Willie McCovey and Felipe Alou walk to load the bases. Willie Mays singles to center, scoring Kuenn.

That leads to a controversial moment. Dodger manager Walter Alston has Stan Williams and Don Drysdale ready to pitch. Drysdale is the Dodgers’ ace who would go on to win the Cy Young Award that season. But Alston tells Drysdale, “I’m saving you to start Game 1 against the Yankees.” Duke Snider talks about it in the book “True Blue” by Steve Delsohn.

“I’m sitting next to Drysdale on the bench,” Snider said, “and I tell him, ‘What are you sitting here for? Go tell Walt you’ll warm up and pitch the ninth inning.’ “Drysdale talked to Alston and came back. I asked him what Alston said. He said, ‘Walt said I’m pitching against the Yankees tomorrow in the World Series.’ I said ‘If we don’t win, there is no World Series.’ “

Williams comes in with the bases loaded, one out, and the Dodgers clinging to a 4-3 lead. Orlando Cepeda hit a sacrifice fly to right to tie the score. Williams intentionally walks Ed Bailey to load the bases again, then walks Jim Davenport to give the Giants a 5-4 lead. They tack on another run when second baseman Larry Burright makes an error on Jose Pagan’s grounder. The Giants bring in Billy Pierce to finish it out, and he retires the Dodgers in order in the bottom of the ninth. But the fireworks are just beginning.

“It got ugly,” Dodgers catcher John Roseboro said. “Drysdale had volunteered to go in and Alston wanted to save him. So we were irate. And there was champagne in our clubhouse, there was whiskey, all the celebration stuff they couldn’t get out. So you had a lot of player drinking and cussing. Then Alston went into his office and wouldn’t come out. Guys were yelling ‘Come out, you gutless SOB. ...”

1965

Juan Marichal of the Giants gets mad when Dodgers catcher John Roseboro almost hits him with a throw when returning the ball to pitcher Sandy Koufax. Marichal takes his bat and hits Roseboro across the head in one of the ugliest scenes in baseball history.

It started when Marichal threw at a couple of Dodgers in the first two innings of the Aug. 22 game. With Marichal due to bat, Walter Alston sent Koufax to the mound with one order: Hit Marichal with a pitch. There was one problem though: Koufax didn’t always have the best control; he was afraid if he threw at Marichal, he might hit him in the head and kill him. So an alternate plan was hatched. Koufax threw a strike, then threw one high and inside. Marichal glared at him, and that is when the new plan went into effect. Roseboro threw the ball back to Koufax, but threw it as hard as he could right past Marichal’s head, and, according to Marichal, nicked him in the ear.

At that point, Marichal turned and said something to Roseboro, who took one step toward Marichal. The Giants’ pitcher responded by swinging his bat and hitting Roseboro in the head. Blood started spurting everywhere as players from both teams ran toward home plate. The enraged Dodgers were trying to get at Marichal, the stunned Giants were trying to protect their teammate, when one man walked over to Roseboro, who by this time wanted a piece of Marichal himself.

“John, they put your eye out,” Willie Mays said to Roseboro. Alston and several other Dodgers were convinced Marichal had knocked Roseboro’s eye out, since the space where his left eye would be was covered in blood. Mays walked Roseboro off the field and into the Dodgers clubhouse as the Giants hustled Marichal into their clubhouse. Players on both teams credited Mays, probably the most respected player in baseball at that point, with preventing the conflict from escalating into a full-fledged riot.

Roseboro suffered a two-inch gash in the hairline just above his forehead. Blood from the gash streamed down into his left eye, which was uninjured.

Dodgers trainer Bill Buhler said Roseboro “had a knot in the middle of his skull that it would take your whole hand to cover.”

Marichal was suspended for eight games and fined $1,750.

Roseboro missed two games because of his injury. He sued Marichal after the season for $110,000 in damages. The case was settled in 1970, with the financial terms undisclosed. Later in life, they became friends and Roseboro campaigned for Marichal to be inducted into the Hall of Fame.

1982

The Dodgers need to win the final game of the season to force a one-game playoff with the Atlanta Braves. With the score tied, 2-2, and two men on in the bottom of the seventh inning, second baseman Joe Morgan hits a three-run homer against Terry Forster and the Giants win, 5-3.

“I got my A-No. 1 swing at it, and when I hit them that good they usually go out,” Morgan told the Los Angeles Times after the game. “I’ve been in the big leagues 19 years and I’ve learned a lot of humility. It’s tough to be over there with your head down because you needed to win that last game and you couldn’t do it. I have a lot of respect and admiration for the Dodgers. But I wanted this one for the Giants and the fans.”

1991

The Dodgers begin the final weekend tied with Atlanta for first place, but lose two of three to the Giants in San Francisco to finish one game back when the season ends.

1993

In the final season before the wild-card spot is introduced, the Giants need to defeat the Dodgers on the last day of the season to force a one-game playoff with the Braves for the NL West title. Rookie Mike Piazza hits two long home runs and the Dodgers win, 12-1.

“We had a little meeting before the game and Tommy gave us a little pep talk,” outfielder Cory Snyder said. “Tommy came in and started reciting the stats and times that the Giants had knocked the Dodgers out of the pennant, and that seemed to be all the incentive we needed.”

2001

The Giants go into the final weekend of the season two games behind Arizona with three games to play, all against the Dodgers. Needing a sweep, the Giants lose two of three and are eliminated from postseason contention. Barry Bonds sets the single-season home run record during the series, hitting homers 71, 72 and 73.

2004

The Giants are two games behind the Dodgers with two to play, both against L.A. With a chance to cut the lead to one game, the Giants take a 3-0 lead into the bottom of the ninth inning. The Dodgers tie the score on two singles, three walks and an error, bringing Steve Finley to the plate with one out and the bases loaded. Finley hits a grand slam to right field, giving the Dodgers the game and the division title.

Finley dropped his bat and threw his hands in the air the moment he hit the ball. Final score, Dodgers 7, Giants 3. Dodgers win the West. For icing on the cake, the win also prevented the Giants from making the playoffs as a wild-card team, missing out by finishing one game behind the Houston Astros.

Why did Finley react at home plate the way he did?

“I wanted to enjoy the atmosphere. I knew it was out. I pictured myself getting the game-winning hit off Dustin Hermanson, but it wasn’t him when I came to the plate. But still I knew I was going to get it done.”

How incredible was the moment? John Shelby the center fielder for the 1988 Dodgers, the last Dodgers team to win the World Series, summed it up.

“I thought I’d never see it like 1988 again. But this is unbelievable. I can never remember dramatics like this.”

In case you missed it

Dodgers, Giants are ready to take rivalry to another level in the NLDS

Hernández: Dave Roberts and Gabe Kapler’s shared history extends beyond Dodgers-Giants rivalry

Plaschke: The Shot Heard Round the Ravine: Dodgers top Cardinals in epic wild-card walkoff

Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants: Everything you need to know about the NLDS

Is your house divided? Tell us about your family’s Dodgers vs. Giants rivalry

Dodgers vs. Giants is dividing this Sylmar coach’s family

And finally

Vin Scully on the Dodgers-Giants rivalry. Watch and listen here.