Six teams are on an open date, so we’ll only have 13 games to pick from in Week 9. The other big story going into this week is that scoring finally picked up, at least in the early games last week. The late slate left us with a lot of unders, but the 1 p.m. PST window had points galore, which was really nice to see. Teams always make adjustments and perhaps we’re starting to see the fruits of that labor.
We’ve got a lot of games that look competitive based on the spreads, so we should have an exciting week to look forward to and hopefully some good betting opportunities.
Here are three early lines I like for Week 9:
As one door opened, another door closed for the Chargers two weeks ago. Keenan Allen returned on a pitch count, but Mike Williams was lost to a high ankle sprain. It was Williams who really took over in the absence of Allen with three 100-yard games and a whole lot of targets. Though Allen should be back to close to full strength this week, the Chargers are missing the guy who can create explosive plays and take the top off of the defense. And we already know that the Chargers can’t run the ball.
The Falcons, however, can and that is the biggest feather in their caps for this game. Atlanta had another effective day on the ground with 4.5 yards per carry against the Carolina Panthers and also got a bit more through the air from Marcus Mariota. Going into Week 8, the Falcons were in the top 10 in total offense DVOA and had a top-five rushing attack. The Chargers went into their open date 31st in yards per carry allowed and 25th in rush defense DVOA.
Atlanta is absolutely getting better under Arthur Smith and they have the chance to show it again here against a bad rush defense.
Pick: Falcons +3
Christian McCaffrey has been with the 49ers a little over a week but has learned fast, throwing, running and catching for touchdowns in blowout of Rams.
Another offense that is way better than expected belongs to the Seahawks. Seattle heads to Arizona for a key NFC West battle against one of the weaker pass defenses in the league. The Cardinals had been good against the run up until last week but gave up six yards per carry to the Vikings. The pass defense was a little better, but failing to hold up against the run on extra rest is a bad sign with Kenneth Walker III coming to town.
Seattle ’s offense has rarely struggled this season, but did so in the 27-13 win over the Giants. However, the defense took a big step forward and heads into this game against Kyler Murray with a lot more confidence. The Seahawks still had a better defense across the board in the DVOA metrics and held the Giants to 3.5 yards per play. Add in a Seattle offense that has a balanced approach with some big threats at wideout and this is actually a game where the Seahawks defense should have a higher projection than the opposition’s unit. Give me the better team getting points in this game.
Pick: Seahawks +2.5
Matthew Stafford and the Rams were no match for Christian McCaffrey, Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers in a 31-14 loss Sunday at SoFi Stadium.
The production of Derrick Henry is going to really cover up a lot of questions for the Titans coming out of last week’s game. Namely, what are they going to do if they actually have to throw a forward pass? Malik Willis was six of 10 for 55 yards and an interception. It was Henry who shouldered the offensive burden with 32 carries for 219 yards and two touchdowns.
The Texans managed just 3.2 yards per play on their 12 drives, but this was a Titans defense that came into the game giving up six yards per play and Tennessee has played an extremely weak set of offenses apart from the Bills, who hung 41 in a revenge spot in Week 2. Kansas City is not a weak offense. In fact, quite the opposite. The Chiefs are off an open date and Henry is off of a million carries. Kansas City seems to have all sorts of advantages here, including the league’s best offense and head coach Andy Reid is very good with extra time.
It’s a big number, but it’s hard to see how the Titans keep pace. Henry had a monster game against Houston and they scored 17 points. It’s hard to see 17 points being enough to hang with the Chiefs.
Pick: Chiefs -11
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