The always popular 12 over 5 upset pick could be this one between Drake and Miami. This Friday game in Albany will be one of the more analyzed games of the first round, especially because there is a narrative out there that Miami isn’t a good road team, but the offense has been just fine outside of Coral Gables.
Drake is a great story and a quality team, but the Missouri Valley Conference was a really mediocre league this season. The Bulldogs haven’t seen an offense as good as Miami’s, as the Hurricanes rank 21st in 2P% and 41st in 3P% this season. Drake did a good job keeping MVC teams to the outside, but Miami is a much quicker, faster and efficient team than the Bulldogs’ conference brethren.
That being said, Miami was a shaky defensive team this season. The Hurricanes rank 256th in 2P% defense and just a little bit above the national average in 3P% defense. Drake is a team that performed really well on mid-range jumpers, which is usually a hallmark of MVC teams. That was the weakest area defensively for the Hurricanes.
Miami speeds games up a bit and I think Drake could get caught up in that tempo. The Bulldogs defense faces a stiff test here, but Miami’s defense will give up its share of points as well.
🏀 Pick: Over 147.5