After Michigan’s 49-0 evisceration of in-state rival Michigan State on Saturday night, the Wolverines find themselves in an unprecedented situation — within the annals of their storied program and college football history.
Michigan is now the betting favorite to win the College Football Playoff national title, jumping ahead of two-time defending champ Georgia. Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy is now the betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. And yet, in the midst of what should be glorious anticipation in Ann Arbor, Mich., more smoke continues to billow in regard to the NCAA’s investigation into allegations the Wolverines have been going too far in their efforts to steal opponents’ signs.
It is not against NCAA rules to steal signs. The NCAA is looking into whether Michigan staff members or people acting on behalf of a staff member attended future opponents’ games and used prohibited technology in an attempt to steal signs. In-person scouting has not been allowed by the NCAA since 1994.
Year 2 of the Lincoln Riley era at USC has been marred by back-to-back losses that have destroyed their national title chances. Why is Riley failing?
ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported Monday that Connor Stalions — the low-level staffer Michigan suspended with pay on Friday — purchased tickets in his name to more than 30 games during the past three years at 10 different Big Ten schools.
Thamel reported Stalions is accused of distributing the tickets he purchased to at least three people across the country. The NCAA is expected to receive video evidence that at least one of the people in the seat Stalions purchased was using electronics to capture the opposite sideline.
The NCAA committee on infractions has an arduous and lengthy process it must go through before levying sanctions against a program for past misdeeds. That Stalions has allegedly purchased tickets for games in 2023 will add to the urgency, but the NCAA can only move so fast.
As if the Wolverines weren’t already going to have their hands full with a road game at Penn State and the regular-season finale against rival Ohio State in Ann Arbor, they now have to deal with a distraction the likes of which no team has ever experienced.
Game one of playing as the villain went well against the downtrodden Spartans. But is this Michigan team good enough to keep it going? We’ll address that and much more in our analysis of the 10 teams left with a legitimate shot at the crown. (Teams are ordered using the current AP poll).
Record: 7-0
Games left: Florida, at No. 16 Missouri, No. 12 Mississippi, at No. 21 Tennessee, at Georgia Tech
Total offense: 3rd (509.4)
Total defense: 6th (262.6)
Contender or pretender: The Bulldogs’ three-peat attempt is going pretty well, as they’re the only team in the country with a top-10 offense and defense. That’s a pretty good place to start. Georgia expects to win every game it plays and backs it up with timely execution in crunch-time moments, which we saw in surprisingly tight games against South Carolina and Auburn. Quarterback Carson Beck has been stellar in his first season as the starter, but the big question now is how much will he be affected by the loss of All-American tight end Brock Bowers? You could make an argument Bowers is the most valuable player in the country for his team, and he’ll likely be out through the regular season after undergoing surgery for a high ankle sprain. Georgia’s finishing stretch will be much tougher than originally thought, but you have to like its chances to win what appears to be a down SEC. Contender.
Record: 8-0
Games left: Purdue, at No. 10 Penn State, at Maryland, No. 3 Ohio State
Total offense: 47th (421.6 yards per game)
Total defense: 3rd (226.8)
Contender or pretender: Thus far, Michigan is mauling opponents and leaving no doubt that the difference has not been any alleged stolen signals. The Wolverines have only allowed double digits once — 10 at Minnesota — and have scored more than 45 points in each of their past four games. With the return of star running back Blake Corum, offensive linemen Trevor Keegan and Zak Zinter and several key defensive cogs, this was supposed to be Michigan’s best team since its 1997 national championship squad, and the Wolverines have backed up that expectation. But the growth of McCarthy into a premier passer and playmaker has given Michigan explosiveness to go along with the brawn. The concern is that this group hasn’t been tested due to a soft schedule, so how will the Wolverines respond if they find themselves in a fourth-quarter battle in Happy Valley or against Ohio State? Contender.
USC coach Lincoln Riley said it’s ‘fair to say [expectations] got to this team’ after the Trojans struggled to hold off Utah at the Coliseum Saturday.
Record: 7-0
Games left: at Wisconsin, at Rutgers, Michigan State, Minnesota, at No. 2 Michigan
Total offense: 39th (431.9)
Total defense: 4th (260.1)
Contender or pretender: No team in the country has two better victories than the Buckeyes, who won at No. 14 Notre Dame and last Saturday against No. 10 Penn State. This is not the Ohio State of past Ryan Day teams, as it only put up 17 and 20 points, respectively, in those games, relying on a stalwart defense to protect an offense that is still figuring itself out late in the season. Quarterback Kyle McCord is not CJ Stroud or Justin Fields, but he does not have to be. He’s thrown just one interception, not putting his defense in bad situations, and he’s developing a consistent chemistry with standout wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Ohio State has coped with injuries to Harrison’s partner on the outside, Emeka Egbuka, and talented running back TreVeyon Henderson. The Buckeyes’ offense can take it to another gear and will expect to do so against Michigan. Contender.
Record: 7-0
Games left: at Wake Forest, at Pittsburgh, Miami, North Alabama, at Florida
Total offense: 24th (445.1)
Total defense: 51st (350.0)
Contender or pretender: After the first month, it seemed the Seminoles had the two best wins of the season, but LSU now has two losses (and no defense) and Clemson just lost its third game. Last Saturday, Florida State trailed Duke 20-17 in Tallahassee when Blue Devils quarterback Riley Leonard exited with an injury. The Seminoles took advantage and pulled away in the fourth quarter for a 38-20 win. Florida State, while flawed, has the schedule to win out and make the playoff semifinals, and the talent to compete once it gets there. It will be a massive collapse if the Seminoles trip. Contender.
Record: 7-0
Games left: at Stanford, at No. 24 USC, No. 13 Utah, at No. 11 Oregon State, Washington State
Total offense: 4th (507.1)
Total defense: 83rd (386.7)
Contender or pretender: Arizona State did the Huskies a huge favor on Saturday night in Seattle, putting a scare into them but ultimately relenting and keeping Washington in this mix. While it was humbling to nearly lose to a 1-5 team, the Huskies clearly needed it, because they need to continue to get better in the coming weeks to have a shot at winning a championship. There is now tape that shows how to frustrate Heisman Trophy candidate Michael Penix Jr., who may throw a gorgeous back shoulder fade but does not have the dual-threat capability that keeps defensive coordinators sleepless. Washington’s defense barely survived Arizona State’s blunted pitchfork of an offense and will be facing much better units down the stretch. The Huskies will likely need to go unbeaten to make the playoff. With road games at USC and Oregon State and a potential rematch with Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game, that’s too big of an ask. Pretender.
Ethan Garbers showcased his ability to pass and run in a win over Stanford, but coach Chip Kelly isn’t about to dub him UCLA’s starting quarterback.
Record: 7-0
Games left: at Kansas, at Oklahoma State, West Virginia, at Brigham Young, Texas Christian
Total offense: 7th (496.9)
Total defense: 53rd (359.1)
Contender or pretender: Brent Venables deserves credit for executing a full recovery from last season’s 6-7 campaign that had many USC fans cackling with delight. Their assumption was that Oklahoma was hurting from the loss of Lincoln Riley. But it seems Venables just needed a little more time to import his hard-nosed culture. Predictably, Oklahoma has improved its defense since Riley and defensive coordinator Alex Grinch left town, but the unit still hasn’t proven much. The offense, steered by emerging Heisman candidate Dillon Gabriel, will have to lead the way as it did during the last-second drive that put the Sooners over Texas. Oklahoma could win the Big 12 and sneak into the playoff, but the result should look a lot like Riley’s three previous trips to the semifinals. Pretender.
Record: 6-1
Games left: BYU, Kansas State, at TCU, at Iowa State, Texas Tech
Total offense: 15th (468.4)
Total defense: 38th (333.1)
Contender or pretender: After the gut-wrenching loss to Oklahoma, the Longhorns have no more margin for error. And, for the foreseeable future, they’ll have to find a way without quarterback Quinn Ewers, who suffered a shoulder sprain in Texas’ 31-24 win over Houston Saturday. Ewers is considered “week to week,” so it’s possible Texas will have to beat a capable Kansas State team without him Nov. 4. The Longhorns needed some help late from the referees to escape Houston, which was a foreboding sign for life without Ewers. Pretender.
Record: 7-1
Games left: California, No. 24 USC, at Arizona State, No. 11 Oregon State
Total offense: 2nd (551.6)
Total defense: 20th (312.6)
Contender or pretender: The Ducks should be 8-0 right now. Any unbiased observer who watched the way the Washington game unfolded knows that. Dan Lanning’s aggressiveness going for fourth downs got the best of them, but that attitude is a big part of why Oregon is to be feared coming down the stretch. Oregon has a balanced offense that can create explosive plays whenever it wants, and Lanning has the defense rounding into form. The Ducks are one of the most complete teams in the country and have the schedule to get to Las Vegas for the Pac-12 title game, where they will be a favorite against whomever they meet. Contender.
Like a lot of teams, Michigan has benefited from stolen signs, but will the NCAA find the program went beyond the accepted methods of decoding signs?
Record: 7-1
Games left: No. 15 Louisiana State, at Kentucky, Chattanooga, at Auburn
Total offense: 79th (366.6)
Total defense: 15th (305.6)
Contender or pretender: At halftime of Alabama’s game against Tennessee Saturday, it seemed like the Volunteers were about to win back-to-back games over the Crimson Tide and knock them out of the playoff chase. Well, 27 consecutive points later, Alabama came out of a 34-20 victory with renewed resolve. With Jalen Milroe at quarterback, this team will need to resemble Nick Saban’s early teams at Alabama to have a shot at winning the SEC and returning to the playoff. For the Tide, it has to be all about running the ball, hitting teams over the top with the play-action pass and protecting a defense that isn’t as star-studded as years past. Despite Milroe’s running ability, Alabama has been hesitant to unleash him — he had just three carries against the Vols — but they also can’t afford for him to get hurt. We saw what they have behind him in the South Florida game. Yikes. But expect Alabama to utilize Milroe’s legs against LSU when needed and in a theoretical matchup with Georgia in the SEC title game. This team has the chance to find a groove the next month. Contender.
Record: 6-1
Games left: Indiana, at Maryland, No. 2 Michigan, Rutgers, at Michigan State
Total offense: 60th (400.0)
Total defense: 1st (218.1)
Contender or pretender: Penn State’s defense is for real. Are they the best in the country like the total yardage stats show? They’ll need to be in order to knock off Michigan and stay in the hunt for the Big Ten title and a CFP bid. The Nittany Lions’ offense could not have been more disappointing Saturday in Columbus. It was forgivable being Drew Allar’s first big road start against a top defense, but it’s hard to see the Nittany Lions as national championship contenders at this point. Allar is a talent, and Penn State has two great running backs to lean on, plus that ferocious defense. But this team feels like it’s a year away. Pretender.
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