A look at USC-California matchup

USC (4-3, 3-2 in the Pac-12) vs. California (4-3, 2-2), at the Coliseum. TV: ESPN, 7:30 p.m.

Most intriguing story line: Fans should get good bang for their buck at this one: They’re likely to see plenty of plays. California set a Football Bowl Subdivision record with 118 plays in a two-overtime win over Oregon last week. The Golden Bears’ average 87 plays a game, the most in the nation, and their games usually devolve into shootouts. Will Thursday’s follow the pattern? The Trojans haven’t given up more than 27 points in a game since the season opener against Alabama. And they haven’t lost to California since 2003.

USC pass offense vs. California pass defense: Since Sam Darnold became the starting quarterback, USC’s offense has blossomed. It averaged only 5.6 yards per pass attempt in its first three games; since then, 9.2. Darnold will be breaking in a new slot receiver. A knee injury ended Steven Mitchell Jr.’s season, meaning Deontay Burnett will get the start. He has caught 23 passes for 229 yards and two touchdowns this season. Eight California defenders have one interception this season, but none has multiple. EDGE: USC.

USC run offense vs. California run defense: With the game on the line, Utah had one play left: third-and-goal from the one-yard line. The Utes hadn’t learned an important lesson: Don’t run it at James Looney, Cal’s defensive tackle. It was Looney who stuffed Zack Moss to preserve the Bears’ win. Running in any other direction has yielded much better results. California is 126th, third-to-last nationally, in rush defense, giving up an average of 271 yards per game. Justin Davis is likely to be out again for USC. The Trojans replaced his production against Arizona with an effective trio: Ronald Jones II (77 yards in 16 carries), Aca’Cedric Ware (103 in 12) and Dominic Davis (89 in seven). EDGE: USC.

California pass offense vs. USC pass defense: With 370 yards a game, California has vaulted to the No. 2 pass offense in the nation largely though volume. The Bears pass 60% of the time — almost 52 times per game. USC actually averages more yards per pass (7.6) than Cal (7.1), which ranks just 76th in that metric. Nevertheless, Davis Webb, who USC Coach Clay Helton said is “definitely going to be a kid who plays on Sunday,” is probably the best quarterback USC has yet seen. He has accumulated 2,581 yards (No. 4 nationally) with 27 touchdowns and seven interceptions, numbers that compare favorably to that of Jared Goff. He releases the ball quickly and is a precise deep passer, which benefits Chad Hansen, who has 59 catches for 770 yards and eight touchdowns. EDGE: California

California run offense vs. USC run defense: The pass-happy approach loosens defenses enough to make California an efficient rushing team. Leading rusher Khalfani Muhammad has 527 yards and averages 6.7 yards per carry. Tre Watson, with the same number of carries, has 457 yards. Webb is the touchdown leader with four. The Bears have only 10 touchdowns on rushes all season. Webb has thrown for half that total in a single game three times. The Trojans have held opponents to less than 100 yards rushing in three of seven games. EDGE: USC.

Special teams: Helton would prefer his field goal unit remain on the sideline during what he expects to be a high-scoring game. “I don’t think field goals are going to be good enough,” he said. That probably means less action for Cal’s Matt Anderson (13 for 15 and perfect inside 40 yards) and USC’s Matt Boermeester (eight of 12). Adoree’ Jackson might not be involved heavily either. Opponents have begun kicking and punting far away from him to keep the ball out of his hands. That at least should give USC good field position. EDGE: USC.

Zach Helfand’s pick: The key for USC will be avoiding turnovers. If the Trojans can pressure Webb, they have enough talent in the secondary to limit Cal to modest offensive numbers. The offense shouldn’t have problems with the Bears — unless it gives the ball away. USC 45, California 35.

zach.helfand@latimes.com

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