USC vs. Washington: How the teams match up for Saturday’s game

No. 20 USC (6-3, 5-2 in the Pac-12) vs. No. 4 Washington (9-0, 6-0), at Husky Stadium, Seattle. TV: Channel 11, 4:30 p.m.

Times staff writer Zach Helfand analyzes Saturday’s matchup:

Most intriguing story line: Opponents of the College Football Playoff system worried that it would water down the sport’s regular season. So far, such concern has proved unfounded. Saturday is proof that each game is critical. No. 4 Washington sits on the cusp of the playoff, but a loss would be crushing. No. 20 USC isn’t playoff bound but can still attain a Rose Bowl berth if it wins out and catches a break from Colorado and Utah.

USC pass offense vs. Washington pass defense: The Huskies, who have the No. 13 passing defense in the nation, have given up more than 200 passing yards only twice this season. USC quarterback Sam Darnold hasn’t thrown for fewer than 200 yards. He has averaged 290 yards passing per game as the starter, and USC has generated more than 500 yards of offense in five consecutive games. Darnold’s top receiving target, JuJu Smith-Schuster, has been bothered by a back injury for nearly a month. In two games playing with the injury, he hasn’t been his usual self, catching eight passes for 76 yards. Washington’s secondary is formidable. Helton said that cornerbacks Sidney Jones and Kevin King and safety Budda Baker are all future NFL players.

EDGE: Washington

USC run offense vs. Washington run defense: Running back Ronald Jones II has provided both thunder and lightning. Against California, he rushed for 223 yards, the most by a USC running back since Reggie Bush. The next week, he tied a USC single-game record with four rushing touchdowns, the first Trojan to do so since LenDale White. USC’s formula will be more complicated this week. Starter Justin Davis had averaged 9.2 yards per rush against strong competition in his last three games, before he suffered a sprained ankle. He is now set to play for the first time in more than a month. Even Davis expects Jones to take the majority of carries, but the extent of Davis’ workload wasn’t fully known this week. Washington’s run defense is more pedestrian than its passing defense, ranking 43rd at 148 yards per game.

EDGE: USC

Washington pass offense vs. USC pass defense: Last week, Washington receiver John Ross caught a long pass from quarterback Jake Browning, shook his defender, ducked out of another tackle, ran backward, looped around and ran for a touchdown. It was an early warning for USC: Helton said Ross and receiver Dante Pettis are the two most explosive players the Trojans have seen since Alabama receiver Calvin Ridley. Together, they have caught 25 touchdown passes, one reason why Browning has a passer rating of 202.8 and is on pace to break Russell Wilson’s NCAA record. Pass rush will be critical. Recently, USC has blitzed more often and generated a greater push with its defensive line. “They feel like they’re playing in the other team’s backfield,” Helton said.

EDGE: Washington

Washington run offense vs. USC run defense: Last week against USC, Oregon rushed for fewer than 100 yards for just the fifth time since 2009. The Trojans face a stiff challenge this week. Myles Gaskin is the Pac-12’s second-leading rusher, trailing only Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey. He has averaged 6.3 yards per carry. As a team, Washington is sixth in the nation in that metric, at 5.92 yards per carry. In Pac-12 play, the Huskies have averaged 276 yards per game and have failed to reach 200 yards just one time. In that instance, against Utah, they rushed for 199.

EDGE: Washington

Special teams: USC’s Adoree’ Jackson is the best punt returner in the conference, based on average return. Pettis is the third best. Jackson is first in kickoff returns. Ross, if he had enough returns to qualify, would be second. Both teams have similar, sparingly used kickers. Washington’s Cameron Van Winkle is sixth in the Pac-12 in field-goal percentage. USC’s Matt Boermeester is seventh.

EDGE: USC

Zach Helfand’s pick: These are similarly constructed teams riding similar hot streaks. USC owns more talent and has finally harnessed its potential. Were this game at the Coliseum, where USC has thrived, the Trojans might be favored. But this game is in Seattle, in the most raucous atmosphere USC has seen. That gives Washington a slight edge. Turnovers and penalties have been a festering problem for the Trojans, and Husky Stadium could compound it. Washington 24, USC 21.

zach.helfand@latimes.com

Follow Zach Helfand on Twitter @zhelfand