World Bank: Ebola could be ‘catastrophic’ for West Africa economies

The Ebola outbreak in West Africa could have a “catastrophic” economic effect on the region unless there is a swift response, the World Bank said Wednesday.

An analysis by the bank says the Ebola crisis is already wreaking havoc on the economies of the hardest-hit countries, making the nations of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone $359 million poorer in 2014 than they would have been without the disease’s spread.

The epidemic could cause economic growth in Guinea to shrink by as much as 46%, and as much as 57% in Liberia this year. In Sierra Leone, growth this year could be slashed by nearly 30%.

The picture worsens substantially if the outbreak is allowed to grow unchecked into 2015, says Dave Evans, a senior economist with the World Bank.

In a “high Ebola” scenario, Evans says the economic growth in Liberia, the hardest hit of the countries, could be cut from an estimated 6.8% in 2015 to negative 4.9%, a decline of about $228 million. In that situation, Sierra Leone and Guinea could also see staggering economic losses of $439 million and $142 million, respectively.

In the worst case scenario over two years, the World Bank estimates the three countries could experience an economic blow of as much as $1.17 billion collectively.

“The primary cost of this tragic outbreak is in human lives and suffering, which has already been terribly difficult to bear,” said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim. “But our findings make clear that the sooner we get an adequate containment response and decrease the level of fear and uncertainty, the faster we can blunt Ebola’s economic impact.”

Evans says preliminary estimates from the World Bank suggest that by the time Ebola is completely contained, the entire West African region could be “several billions of dollars” poorer than it would have been otherwise.

However, if an aggressive global response can be mounted to contain the disease by year’s end or early 2015, the organization says Guinea, which has seen the growth of Ebola slow, could even bounce back and see growth of $43 million by the end of next year.

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