Lame-duck role may not suit Schwarzenegger

Reporting from Sacramento — 

No self-respecting politician wants to be one. The phrase itself is utterly demeaning. But with a year left in office, there are signs that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has begun his transformation into a lame duck.

This status, defined by the weakness of a politician whose term will soon expire, may be difficult to swallow for a former Mr. Universe known to legions of moviegoers for vanquishing opponents as Hercules, Conan and the Terminator. Even as a pregnant man in “Junior,” Schwarzenegger reflected a particular kind of strength.

But legislators have already begun sensing that as a lame duck he is easy prey and openly disregard some of his wishes. Members of his staff have steadily been quitting, and replacements are hard to come by.

Schwarzenegger himself has stopped curtailing his famous mischievous streak. More of all this seems inevitable in the year ahead.

The question for Schwarzenegger is whether he will focus his energy on resolving the state’s renewed budget crisis or take a more passive approach and spend his time on a publicity tour around the state or the globe to burnish his legacy, said Bill Whalen, a former speechwriter for Gov. Pete Wilson.

“He is by definition a lame duck, but being a lame duck does not mean that you have to sit back and let the situation overwhelm you,” Whalen said.

Schwarzenegger took a jaunt through the Middle East and Europe in November and flew to a climate conference in Copenhagen last month while aides were dealing with a $20-billion deficit. If that pattern continues, Schwarzenegger will have to fit it into a busy schedule.

Besides the budget, he is expected to campaign for a system of open political primaries on the ballot in June and an $11-billion water bond measure slated for November.

“Gov. Schwarzenegger is going to approach this year no different than any other, with an aggressive agenda to fix what’s broken in the state,” said his spokesman, Matt David. “He’s proven time and again that he can get stuff done even during difficult times.”

That Schwarzenegger’s power is waning was evident last month, however, in the decision by state Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg (D-Sacramento) to kill the governor’s reappointment of Rachelle Chong to a six-year term on the Public Utilities Commission without a confirmation hearing.

Steinberg cited Chong’s record as the problem but also indicated that he is likely to reject more of Schwarzenegger’s appointees whose terms would last well into the next governor’s tenure.

“There have been pro tems who have made the decision to simply not confirm any long-term nominee in the last year of an administration,” Steinberg said. He said he would consider other appointees on “a case-by-case basis.”

The politics are straightforward. The power to give a governor anything he might want is a bargaining chit for lawmakers. But these chits may hold more value with a governor who will have up to eight years to serve. Schwarzenegger, by contrast, has fewer chances to punish lawmakers who defy him and fewer issues he can use as leverage to negotiate.

With a deal on the state’s water system completed with lawmakers in November, the only main issue around that he can still negotiate is the ongoing state budget crisis. Lawmakers cannot wait for another governor to resolve the problem.

Schwarzenegger may try during those talks to obtain changes to the state’s costly pension system, which he has been seeking for several years, as a last major accomplishment.

Schwarzenegger will lay out his agenda for the year during his State of the State address Wednesday.

The governor’s initial strategy for the budget appears to be an attempt to pressure the federal government for more funding that he says California needs to comply with federal laws.

Schwarzenegger is expected in his budget proposal, due to come out on Friday, to demand that the state get back more of the taxes it sends to Washington and to threaten large new cuts to social services, mass transit and other programs if U.S. officials do not provide extra money

Other proof that his administration is on a downward trajectory comes from his own high-ranking aides, who have been streaming out the door.

In 2009, Schwarzenegger lost his legislative affairs secretary, the directors of the Departments of Finance, Transportation, General Services, Employment Development, Forestry and Fire Protection, and the head of the California National Guard. Another cluster of top advisors departed at the end of 2008.

Most of those positions have been filled internally with lower-level managers, given the near impossibility of attracting outside talent to jobs they would be probably lose when the next governor takes the helm. (Schwarzenegger had trouble finding a finance director willing to replace the outgoing Mike Genest in a tough budget year, eventually pressing a deputy, Ana Matosantos, into service.)

For months, some departments have had “acting” directors or vacancies at the top; the California Housing Finance Agency, for instance, has been without an executive director for a year.

Other jobs have become revolving doors. The governor has had three Cabinet secretaries in a year. He brought back Fred Aguiar, a trusted aide from the beginning of his administration, as secretary of the State and Consumer Services Agency after the agency’s previous leader resigned under fire in March.

In early November, he moved Aguiar into the governor’s office, leaving the consumer agency’s Cabinet-level post empty.

Some politicians find new freedom in being a lame duck, feeling unconstrained in their words and actions without an election on the horizon. Schwarzenegger for a time held his tendency for politically incorrect comments in check.

But he recently scolded his wife publicly for driving and talking on a cellphone without a hands-free device, sent a legislator an obscene coded message in a veto letter and wielded a knife in a video while endorsing cuts in social services and education in the budget.

Before he leaves, the governor is also sure to look to take care of those who have taken care of him, with judgeships or other perks.

Matthew Cate, a former prosecutor and the governor’s corrections chief, said he has discussed with friends, including Schwarzenegger’s top legal aide, whether a judgeship might be possible.

But he has also thought about continuing to try to turn around the state’s troubled prison system under another governor.

“If the situation were right and the circumstances were right on both sides, I’d actually be interested to stay,” Cate said. “I haven’t talked to anybody about that, but there’s so much going on, I’d love to be a part of it.”

michael.rothfeld@latimes.com