In open Senate primary, state GOP is probably DOA

California’s primary election Tuesday is shaping up to make history. It’s likely to be the first time that voters send two candidates from the same party to the November runoff for a U.S. Senate seat.

Or for any partisan statewide office in California, for that matter.

If several polls are correct, all Republican Senate candidates will be eliminated Tuesday. And in the fall, the voters’ only choice will be between two Democrats for one of the most potent elective offices a state can offer.

The other powerful office is governor. And get ready for a potential Democrats-only runoff for that post in 2018 when Gov. Jerry Brown is termed out.

The two probable Senate finalists are state Atty. Gen. Kamala Harris, 51, a former San Francisco district attorney, and 10-term U.S. Rep. Loretta Sanchez, 56, of Orange.

They’ve been running first and second, respectively, in a far-flung field of 34 mostly unknown candidates.

In a USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll last week, Harris held a comfortable 34%-14% lead over Sanchez among likely voters. No Republican had more than 7%.

But in a low-profile race submerged by the presidential primary, it is still theoretically possible for a longshot Republican to finish second.

In a recent Field poll of likely voters, Harris led Sanchez by 30%-14%, with no Republican above 4%. But 27% were undecided.

An all-Democratic runoff is probable because of California’s relatively new open primary system. No longer are there party nominations. All voters, regardless of party registration, get one ballot that lists every candidate. The top two finishers advance to the general election.

Voters authorized that system in 2010. But this is the first election when its impact likely will be felt in a statewide contest.

Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer’s pending retirement provided a rare opening for ambitious politicians. And the California GOP has fallen on such bad times it no longer seems able to compete statewide.

Democrats account for 44.8% of registered voters, and Republicans only 27.3%. Unaffiliated independent voters — registered as “no party preference” — are 23.3%, and they lean strongly Democratic.

Republicans are badly outnumbered in the state’s congressional delegation and both legislative houses. But they’re still strong in some regions.

In fact, there were seven congressional and legislative races in 2014 — out of 153 total — where both general election finalists were Republicans. In 17 races, however, both runoff contestants were Democrats.

So how do voters feel about a system in which they sometimes are stuck with just one party — usually Democratic — to choose from in November? Not surprisingly, Democrats and independents like it much better than Republicans.

In the USC/Times poll, the top-two primary was favored 51%-41% among all voters. But among Democrats and independents, 56% supported it, while only 37% of Republicans did.

The goal of the open primary was to elect more pragmatic centrists who are less inclined to gridlock.

To win, candidates need to appeal to a wide range of voters. In the primary, that means not just pandering to party ideologues. And in the general, the more moderate candidate — Sanchez in the Senate race — can seek support from the other party. Once elected, those candidates are more apt to compromise.

That was the theory. And it seems to be gradually working in the Legislature, combined with honest redistricting. Gerrymandering to protect incumbents has been eliminated, and there are more competitive races.

“We’ve definitely seen positive benefits,” says Marty Wilson, political strategist for the state Chamber of Commerce.

He gives an example: Four Assembly Democrats emerged from the 2010-11 legislative session with at least a 40% pro-business rating. That is, they voted with business 40% of the time. During the 2014-15 session, the pro-business group had grown to 20 Democrats.

“We’re also beginning to see the effects in the Senate,” Wilson says.

Democratic consultant David Townsend, who advises moderates, says, “It’s like night and day. There now are 23 Democrats who are willing to listen to anyone on issues about jobs and the economy.”

Democratic strategist Garry South argues that California has become such a blue state that a Democrat is guaranteed victory in most races. Better to have two to choose from, he says, than one strong Democratic and a weak Republican.

But conservative Jon Fleischman, an influential blogger and former state Republican official, detests the top-two system.

“It reduces voter choice in November when most voters turn out,” he argues. “It creates an election with two candidates who are ideologically similar. Explain to me how Sanchez and Harris are different. I won’t vote for either. Both want Hillary Clinton to be president.

“What’s missing for my party is a mechanism to consolidate behind one candidate.”

The GOP had better figure out a way, says research fellow Bill Whalen of Stanford’s Hoover Institution, a former speechwriter for Republican Gov. Pete Wilson.

He’s not ready to judge the top-two system yet.

“But it does force your party to do a better job of organizing, to get better candidates and limit the field,” Whalen says.

“The Republican Party needs to step up its game. Democrats seem to have their act together. Republicans have to adopt their message to changing times in California [and] not be running on bitterness and anger.

“It’s political Darwinism,” he adds. “Adapt or die.”

In California, the party is dying. And on Tuesday, its weak Senate pulse is likely to flatline.

george.skelton@latimes.com

Follow @LATimesSkelton on Twitter

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