Stat Electricity Provides No Buzz

Give me old-time baseball and up-tempo basketball, which is why I’m enjoying this Dodgers season and the NBA playoffs so much.

I’ve never embraced the stats-happy view of baseball championed in “Moneyball.” I’m not down with OPS. I’m still enrolled in the old school, an approach that starts with pitching, continues with defense up the middle and believes in the concept of clutch hitting.

Statistics should be utilized but not revered. They’re a reflection and an indication, not a definition.

People turn to stats because they have a need to control the uncontrollable, to find certainty in a chaotic world. Of course, that goes against the essence of sports. We watch the games precisely because we don’t know what will happen next. If we really wanted an assured outcome, we’d spend all our time watching ESPN Classic instead of ESPN.

One of my favorite baseball moments came a couple of years ago, when Hideo Nomo was on the Dodgers and Randy Johnson pitched for the Diamondbacks (and pitched like Randy Johnson). Nomo whacked a double to the wall over the drawn-in outfielders. The sheer improbability of it made me laugh. And that’s what makes baseball great. Things that shouldn’t happen can happen.

Four of the last five World Series champions were teams that didn’t make the playoffs the previous season: the White Sox, Marlins, Angels and Diamondbacks. I didn’t see any algorithms that predicted those results.

Sometimes people become so obsessed with the formulas they forget what works on the field. The Dodgers’ acquisition of Nomar Garciaparra and dismissal of Hee-Seop Choi didn’t fit into the stats perspective, but it’s working pretty well right now. When Garciaparra is healthy, he can hit.

The story of the Dodgers’ success is the starting pitchers, who collectively have the lowest earned-run average in the National League. On the other side, for those who worship the walk, the Dodgers are second in the NL in that category and first in on-base percentage. Call it a hybrid.

The Phoenix Suns are the opposite. They do one thing. They do it despite all of the historical evidence that said they couldn’t do it this way. They go fast and they score.

It’s fun to watch, but ultimately it’s usually about as substantial as a puff of cotton candy. Phoenix’s offensive DNA contains genes from Doug Moe’s Denver Nuggets and the Run TMC Golden State Warriors, two teams that lit up the scoreboard and didn’t get close to touching the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

The game isn’t as simple as filling the basket. Since 1959 (an arbitrary starting point), only nine teams have led the league in scoring and won a championship the same year. You say the answer is to get tough on defense? That doesn’t guarantee success either. In that same time span, only 10 defensive leaders (in points allowed) have won the championship.

The best indicator is point differential. Since 1959, 25 leaders in that category have won the championship, a sign that proficiency at both ends of the court is most valuable. (This year’s scoring differential leader, San Antonio, is already back at the crib. But Nos. 2-5 are in their respective conference finals.)

If the Suns can win seven more games it will represent an NBA revolution. Sure, the Lakers ran in the 1980s. They had the best fastbreak leader in Magic Johnson and great finishers such as James Worthy, Byron Scott and Michael Cooper. But the Lakers also had the best half-court offense option ever, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and his skyhook, for when the game slowed down.

Ever since the Suns brought in Steve Nash, put the top down and headed for the fast lane last year, people have said that style won’t work in the playoffs. All they’ve done is win four out of five playoff series, and after splitting the first two games of the Western Conference finals in Dallas, the Suns are three home victories from winning a fifth.

We’re already seeing a transition. In 2004, the Detroit Pistons broke the dual-superstar template that dominated the NBA since 1980.

If any team besides the Miami Heat wins the championship this year it will do so without a true low-post threat. Elton Brand couldn’t get past the Suns. Yao Ming didn’t make the playoffs.

What in the name of Wilt Chamberlain is going on here? Zone defenses make it easier to surround the big men, and with defenders prohibited from forearm shoves or handchecks, it’s easier for guards to get into the lane. Inside-out offense these days comes from driving to the basket and throwing the ball outside instead of dumping the ball into a big man and waiting for the defense to collapse. That’s how Dallas and Detroit run their offenses as well.

I always valued points in the paint as a statistic because it indicates a team is taking high-percentage shots in the lane. But Detroit is in the championship mix despite finishing last in that category this season. Dallas was 17th and Phoenix 19th. In other words, three of the final four teams came from the bottom half of this category.

The lesson: Don’t focus on the spreadsheets. Just watch the games.

J.A. Adande can be reached at j.a.adande@latimes.com. To read previous columns by Adande, go to latimes.com/adandeblog.