USC vs. Oregon: How the teams match up for Saturday’s game

USC (5-3, 4-2 in the Pac-12) vs. Oregon (3-5, 1-4), at the Coliseum. TV: ESPN, 4 p.m.

Times staff writer Zach Helfand analyzes Saturday’s matchup:

Most intriguing story line: USC’s path to the Pac-12 Conference championship game is straightforward but narrow. It must win all four remaining games, and it needs Colorado and Utah to each lose at least one more game. The Trojans’ pursuit starts here, and they are heavily favored. But Oregon is dangerous. The Ducks have defeated USC in four of the last five meetings. “We need to take this game serious as a heart attack,” USC Coach Clay Helton said.

USC pass offense vs. Oregon pass defense: Oregon’s numbers on pass defense are deceptive. The Ducks are ranked a lowly 121st (of 128 teams) in yards allowed per game, but that’s largely because few teams are passed against more often. Its per-pass average, 7.13 yards, is more middle-of-the-pack — 54th in the nation. That still leaves plenty for quarterback Sam Darnold to carve up. By his standards, Darnold did not play particularly well against California last week. He still finished with 231 yards and five touchdowns, with one pass intercepted. One surprise has been the emergence of USC’s tight ends. Freshman Daniel Imatorbhebhe has three straight games with a touchdown reception.

EDGE: USC

USC run offense vs. Oregon run defense: Oregon Coach Mark Helfrich watched USC’s victory over Arizona three weeks ago and was impressed. “That game went from 7-7 and it was just … gone,” he said. “That’s how they are right now.” The latest development is depth in the running game. It may be needed. Starter Justin Davis is doubtful because of a sprained ankle, as is third option Aca’Cedric Ware. But Ronald Jones II is coming off a 223-yard performance. Dominic Davis, who rushed for 89 yards against Arizona, would be his backup, if necessary. Oregon, which is 116th nationally in rush defense, has been decimated by injuries. Freshman linebacker Troy Dye has been a bright spot. He is one of only five true freshmen nationwide to lead his team in tackles.

EDGE: USC

Oregon pass offense vs. USC pass defense: Over Oregon’s last three games, Helton said, 11 opposing conference coaches reached the same realization. “I think the whole Pac-12 went, ‘Oh God, they found their guy,’” Helton said. That guy is freshman Justin Herbert, a Eugene, Ore., product who has been excellent in three starts. Last week against a very poor Arizona State defense, he completed 31 of 42 passes for 489 yards and four touchdowns. He has a balanced unit of receivers to throw to. Darren Carrington II, Charles Nelson and Pharaoh Brown each have more than 300 yards receiving and at least three touchdowns. This game is a matchup between the conference’s best two freshman passers.

EDGE: Oregon

Oregon run offense vs. USC run defense: How poor has Oregon’s defense been? Well, its offense leads the Pac-12 in rushing, at 248 yards per game, and is second in total offense. Yet the Ducks have won only one of five conference games. They have a pair of explosive runners in Royce Freeman (561 yards, eight touchdowns) and Tony Brooks-James (572, eight). Freeman gets the bulk of the carries, but Brooks-James is “ultra-dangerous,” Helton said, and averages 8.1 yards per carry. “Every time he touches the ball you hold your breath,” Helton said. Herbert, too, is a capable runner in Oregon’s read-option scheme.

EDGE: Oregon

Special teams: This game will include three of the best returners in the Pac-12. USC’s Adoree’ Jackson keeps finding ways to get to kicks, despite opponents’ best efforts to keep the ball away from him. For Oregon, Charles Nelson is second in the conference in kick return average, behind Jackson. Brooks-James joins Nelson on kickoffs. USC has been adept at limiting opponents’ return yardage. Field goals, from USC’s Matt Boermeester and Oregon’s Aidan Schneider, aren’t common for either efficient offense.

EDGE: USC

Zach Helfand’s pick: The Ducks haven’t won on the road this season, which is what usually happens when a team allows more than 42 points per game. USC hasn’t lost at home. Oregon’s offense is strong, but not strong enough to outscore the Trojans. USC 42, Oregon 31.

zach.helfand@latimes.com

Follow Zach Helfand on Twitter @zhelfand