San Gabriel Valley Communities Among Pretest Group : Census Targets High-Minority Areas

The U.S. Census Bureau is coming a few years early to Monterey Park, South El Monte and South San Gabriel.

The three San Gabriel Valley communities are among 21 in Los Angeles County that have been tough to poll in the last two censuses because of high minority populations and housing densities. All 21 communities will be included in the special survey.

Although census takers will not set up shop until October and won’t begin mailing questionnaires until March, 1986, bureau officials already have met with local officials to coordinate the census.

Dubbed the Central Los Angeles County Pretest, the experimental census will try to determine the best ways of counting not only Los Angeles County residents but urban dwellers and members of minority groups in general.

Accuracy Is Imperative

Making an accurate count is important because census data determines representation in Congress, and federal, state and county government agencies use the data as one basis for distributing aid.

It is more difficult for the Census Bureau to count minorities than it is to count the general population, bureau officials said, and the problem is compounded in urban areas.

Bureau officials chose Los Angeles County as a test area for 1986 because it has a high minority population and is urban and densely populated, said Peter Bounpane, assistant director for demographic censuses at the bureau’s headquarters in Maryland.

This year the bureau is conducting similar tests in counties in New Jersey and Florida. A bureau spokesman said that each year various counties around the country are chosen as test sites. In 1986, in addition to Los Angeles County, the tests will include several rural counties in Mississippi.

Despite difficulties in locating some people, undercounting is not widespread. The Bureau of the Census estimates that it misses only 0.5% of the total American population in its count every 10 years.

‘Minority Population’

“The problem is that even though it’s a small total of the population, it represents the minority population,” said Mike Flanagan, Census coordinator at the bureau’s Los Angeles office.

In fact, the bureau estimates that in the 1980 census, it missed 2% to 4% of the minority population alone. For Latinos, the estimated “miss rate” is 4.5%; for blacks, it is 5.5%. Yet those figures are lower than the miss rates in the 1970 census.

“The guess is that there are people in the minority population who for one reason or another fear putting their name on the census form,” Bounpane said.

He said some members of minority groups may fear losing welfare benefits, or, especially among Latinos, may fear that the information will be turned over to the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service in its search for illegal aliens.

People Fear It

“All these are unfounded, but people do fear that,” he said.

Even legal or naturalized residents sometimes refuse to return the census form, said John Huerta, associate counsel for the Mexican-American Legal Defense and Education Fund.

“They have so much at stake in staying in this country, they just don’t want to rock the boat,” he said, adding that legal residents may be fearful because, although they are in the country legally, they still can be deported.

Housing conditions in densely populated urban areas also make polling difficult. Families who are packed several to a dwelling often try to conceal themselves because they fear they are violating zoning or health codes.

But these people, as well as illegal aliens, have nothing to fear, bureau officials said, because the bureau does not release information on individuals, only on averages for each census tract.

One Goal Is Trust

The fears exist, though, and the bureau, one official said, is “constantly trying to overcome them.” One of the purposes of the pretest is to persuade people to trust the census.

The actual nationwide census will not be conducted until 1990. A census is held every 10 years, as mandated by the Constitution.

Censuses are done first by determining an area’s addresses, which are plotted into census tracts. Questionnaires are mailed to the occupant of each address and are returned to the bureau office. The bureau then sends pollsters to the addresses from which no response was received.

The experimental census will test polling procedures. To establish itself in the test communities, the bureau will open three offices in the area. Instead of trying to get the word out themselves, and to build more trust between the bureau and the community, census takers will ask community groups and leaders to encourage residents to respond to the census.

Work Force Local

“Almost the entire work force will be local people,” Flanagan said.

To cover part of the cost of the pretest, the bureau will spend about $1 million on salaries, services and supplies for the local offices, and expects to hire more than 1,000 workers, census officials said. No census official could estimat the full cost of the pretest.

There is more at stake in the census than just successfully gathering information. For example, the federal government uses census data in its revenue-sharing program with the states. Federal agencies distribute the money based on a state’s population. States, in turn, distribute money to counties and cities based on their populations.

In California, counties rely on state bail-out money and cities rely on state gasoline tax and vehicle in-lieu funds for revenue. Many of these funds are distributed according to population.

Under-Counting Uncertain

While local officials and political observers were uncertain about the degree of under-counting, there is a consensus that if the it has been significant, local areas have lost money they should have received.

“They don’t receive the benefits but they do put into the tax system,” said Geneva Vega, administrative assistant to Assemblywoman Gloria Molina (D-Los Angeles). Molina’s 56th District includes some of the areas to be polled.

Monterey Park City Manager Lloyd de Llamas said, “We feel we may have 6,000 or 7,000 more people than the 54,338 counted in the 1980 census. We could be entitled to a significant amount of money from the state in sales tax, motor vehicle in lieu tax and from the federal government in revenue sharing.”

South El Monte has fewer residents than the 1980 census showed, said assistant City Manager Audrey Czarny. The census showed 16,623 but when the city did its own census, the count was 15,950, she said.

Disputes over population figures can become emotional. After the 1980 census, New York City claimed the census had missed nearly 700,000 residents and successfully sued the bureau to have the figures upgraded. An appeals court reversed the decision, and both parties are awaiting the outcome of a second trial.

Vital to Planning

Good numbers are vital to planning. A city’s water and sewer systems are designed to accommodate a certain number of people. Before a city can add housing, it must have an accurate census to determine how much more housing it needs and if its facilities can handle the increase.

Just as political observers are uncertain about the amount of funds lost because of under-counting, they are unsure about whether an accurate count would increase the political representation of minorities in Sacramento and Washington.

William Lammers, professor of political science at USC, said that if the census found more people living in the test area than it had previously thought were there, it would make a difference only if legislators were to suddenly draw new districts that did not protect incumbents. He said he does not think that sort of reapportionment is likely.

Nevertheless, because congressional districts can have a maximum of about 500,000 people, if the census finds more people in the target areas, the districts might have to be rearranged, causing a ripple effect that could throw out incumbents or a party in districts in other parts of the county, he said.

The Ripple Possibility

“There is a possibility that if you had one or two ripples, that the Democrats might gain, say, (Congresswoman) Bobbi Fiedler’s seat in the (San Fernando) Valley,” he said. “But to get that effect you’d have to have a couple of ripples.”

Leroy Hardy, professor of political science at California State University, Long Beach, said that even if districts are drawn that do not protect incumbents, representation of minorities probably would not increase. Though the population has increased in the Southeast area and the San Gabriel Valley, Los Angeles County as a whole has not grown and is not entitled to additional representation.

Hardy said it is more likely that areas of the state outside of Los Angeles County, such as Riverside and San Bernardino counties, would gain if there are increases in representation to the state or national governments.

Huerta, the associate counsel for the Mexican-American legal defense fund, disputes the accuracy of the Census Bureau’s 4.5% miss rate for Latinos. It “could be quite a bit higher” because the bureau has not taken into account increased immigration from Central America. While growth overall in Los Angeles County is stable, he said, the minority population has increased while the white population has declined.

Redrew District Lines

In 1981, Hardy helped a legislative committee redraw district lines in Los Angeles County. The reapportionment created three new congressional districts with populations that were predominantly Latino, and the result increased Latino political power, Hardy said.

“Even if we find an additional 100,000 people, or even 200,000,” Hardy said, “there’s only going to be enough population for three Hispanic congressional districts.”

An increase in the sheer number of minority residents might not make a difference “unless the minority groups participate (in politics) at a higher level than they do right now,” he said.

Huerta said that “part of the problem is that elected officials aren’t even aware of what is going on in their districts.”

Vega, the assistant to Molina, said that “regardless of whether they’re legal or voting,” if minorities are counted in greater numbers, politicians would realize they are “another constituency group that has to be dealt with.”