USC Must Beat Cal to Stay in Contention : Trojan Hopes Are Also Riding on Victories by Bruins, Huskies

Call it the Pacific 10 lottery if you will--five teams spinning the big wheel this month with the conference championship and a Rose Bowl appearance as the grand prize.

The contestants, or contenders, are UCLA, USC, Washington, Arizona and Arizona State, all with one league loss.

The Rose Bowl race will have a different look, though, after this weekend, since four of the five contenders are playing one another in a big shoot-out in Arizona.

UCLA will play at Arizona tonight, and Washington will play at Arizona State today. USC, meanwhile, will play California here today at Memorial Stadium, and the Trojans will be obliged to root for the Bruins and Huskies.

“Since we lost to Arizona State and don’t play Arizona, it’s to our advantage to have the teams win that we still play,” USC Coach Ted Tollner said. “If you want to control your own destiny, you want Washington and UCLA to win. But, of course, we have to play good football and beat Cal.”

Arizona really is the only team that can control its own destiny. All the others need some help, especially USC.

If either Arizona school ties USC for the conference championship, the Trojans will be eliminated from the Rose Bowl through tie-breaking procedures.

The Trojans lost to Arizona State, the first consideration in the tiebreaking formula.

The second procedure is a point system--four points for a conference win, three for a nonconference win--and Arizona would prevail over USC on that, 33 points to 31.

But there may be some other wrinkles in the close race before the month ends, such as non-contending teams upsetting the contenders, or tie games.

Here’s the remaining schedule for the contending teams, with overall and conference records in parentheses:

USC (4-3, 3-1)--California today; at Washington next Saturday; UCLA Nov. 23; Oregon at Tokyo Nov. 30.

UCLA (6-1-1, 4-l)--At Arizona tonight; Oregon State next Saturday; at USC Nov. 23. UCLA beat Arizona State but lost to Washington.

WASHINGTON (5-3, 4-1)--At Arizona State today; USC next Saturday; Washington State Nov. 23. Washington beat UCLA but will not play Arizona. In the event of a tie with Arizona, Washington would lose out on the point system.

ARIZONA STATE (6-2, 3-1)--Washington today; Stanford next Saturday; Arizona Nov. 23. Arizona State beat USC but lost to UCLA.

ARIZONA (6-2, 3-1)--UCLA tonight; Oregon next Saturday; at Arizona State Nov. 23. Arizona does not play Washington or USC.

The Big Ten race is also snarled, with five teams still in contention for a Rose Bowl bid: Ohio State, 4-1; Iowa, 4-1; Michigan, 3-1-1; Illinois, 3-1-1, and Minnesota, 3-2.

Ohio State is the only contending team that controls its own destiny. If the Buckeyes beat Northwestern, Wisconsin and Michigan, they’ll represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl for the second year in a row.

Although the pressure games are in Arizona today, that doesn’t alleviate the pressure on USC.

The Trojans have to beat Cal to stay in the race, but the Bears, 3-6 and 1-6, have nothing to lose while trying to wind up their losing season in a positive fashion.

Cal has been competitive in most of its games. But mistakes, such as fumbles and interceptions, have turned possible wins into losses.

Dwight Garner and Marc Hicks are expected to be paired in the Cal backfield today along with fullback Ed Barbero. Hicks, a big-play freshman from Davis, usually relieves Garner, who will be remembered for his part in the five-lateral touchdown on a kickoff return against Stanford in 1982.

Kevin Brown is likely to get the starting call at quarterback over Brian Bedford, an option-type quarterback.

Cal has a solid fullback in Barbero, who is averaging 4.8 yards, and a defensive star in linebacker Hardy Nickerson, who leads the Pac-10 in tackles with 133.

USC will attack Cal with the two-tailback tandem, Fred Crutcher and Ryan Knight, that opened the season against Illinois. Freshman Aaron Emanuel, who has been sharing playing time with Crutcher in recent games, didn’t make the trip. He has a severely sprained left ankle.

Knight, who was fourth on the depth chart at tailback for a while, made a big comeback last Saturday in a 31-13 win over Washington State. He contributed some key runs in late touchdown and field goal drives.

Last year, as a freshman, Knight gained a career-high 122 yards against Cal as the Trojans won at the Coliseum, 31-7.

USC hasn’t lost to Cal since 1977 and has outscored the Bears, 173-26, since 1980. But Cal has been more competitive at Berkeley, having won two of the last five games played here.

The Trojans figure to pound Cal on the ground. USC is averaging 203.3 yards a game rushing. The Bears are eighth in the conference in rushing defense, yielding 187 yards a game.

Trojan Notes Kickoff for today’s game is 1 p.m., and a crowd of 60,000 is anticipated. . . . Injury update: Flanker Gene Arrington hurt his knee in practice and will be replaced by Al Washington. Nose guard Tony Colorito, linebackers Rex Moore and Greg Coauette, offensive tackle Tom Hallock and tight end Paul Green are sidelined with assorted injuries. . . . USC has a depth problem in both lines and at inside linebacker. . . . Zeph Lee is now listed as the No. 3 tailback, the No. 2 fullback behind Kennedy Pola and is a backup tight end in motion. Todd Steele, the No. 2 fullback, is banged up and may not play. Nine USC starters have missed at least one game because of injuries.

Cal’s Dwight Garner, the brother of USC freshman cornerback Dwayne Garner, has rushed for 300 yards and has caught 24 passes for 250 yards. . . . USC ranks sixth nationally in total defense, allowing an average of 271.5 yards a game. . . . USC split end Hank Norman has 100 catches and needs seven more to pass Jeff Simmons, the school’s all-time leading receiver. . . . USC has won 22 of the last 26 games with Cal and leads the all-time series, 45-23-4. . . . It will be homecoming for several USC players who grew up in the Bay Area. Among them is defensive tackle Brent Moore, who said his father is renting a double-decker bus to bring 40 friends and members of the family to the game.