Economic Issue Is Focus of Bradley’s Political Dilemma : Analysis

The political dilemma facing Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley as he prepares to run against Gov. George Deukmejian is how to outshine the incumbent in a year when California’s economic growth is expected to outshine the nation’s.

Bradley borrowed a notion from Rudyard Kipling’s old line about the tail wagging the dog as he grappled with the issue Tuesday in his State of the City message.

“The city of the Olympics has become the powerful engine that is pulling California forward to prosperity,” the mayor told an audience on a produce market loading dock. Later in the speech, he said, “More than any other people, we in Los Angeles hold in our hands the shape and spirit of the future. We have already carried California to economic prosperity. Now we are prepared to lead California forth into the future.”

The local business and government leaders loved it. They stood and applauded. But when word of the speech filters south to San Diego or north to the San Francisco Bay Area and Sacramento and Fresno, the reception might not be as great.

The San Francisco Bay Area, in particular, has never seemed to enjoy being portrayed as being wagged, or led, by Los Angeles. Neither does San Diego.

Although Bradley afterward said he did not know Republican Deukmejian, his expected rival in the governor’s race, was making his own State of the State speech Thursday, the mayor’s State of the City talk had many overtones of the forthcoming race.

Credit for Surplus

The mayor claimed credit for projects he said had made Los Angeles “a dynamic economic giant.” He even gave his region credit for building the Deukmejian Administration’s budget surplus, saying “thanks to the revenues we generate, the coffers of state government in Sacramento are bursting at the seams with over a $1-billion surplus.”

With his formal announcement of candidacy expected in the next several weeks, the mayor, usually a stumbling speech reader, read from a TelePrompTer, gestured and looked at his audience, preparing for the race ahead.

Even as he spoke, movers were installing furniture at his gubernatorial campaign headquarters in Hollywood, several miles from the produce market.

In many respects, the mayor was trying to make the best out of a political situation that might not be good news for a Democrat challenging a Republican incumbent. The economic issue has been a good one for Democrats in past years, especially when times were bad. Bradley, judging from Tuesday’s speech, is seeking to portray himself as the man who can bring California economic prosperity, just as he says he has done in Los Angeles.

His problem is that economic forecasters have predicted California’s 1986 growth will exceed the nation’s. UCLA forecasters predicted personal income will rise 7.1%, slightly ahead of the national rate.

Citing statistics and examples from around the Southland, mixing information from Los Angeles with that gathered from the broader Los Angeles metropolitan area, Bradley credits the area for statewide prosperity.

But, as he campaigns around the state, he may be confronted with statistical arguments, as well as choleric replies from regional chauvinists. For other major areas are doing well, too, and their business and government leaders no doubt will boast of their own regional prosperity.

The San Diego economy, for example, will exceed the state’s this year, Bank of America has predicted.

And in the San Francisco Bay Area, the Security Pacific Bank forecasts a slight growth in retail sales, despite the slump in high technology industries in Santa Clara County and a late-1985 business slowdown.

Political leaders of those regions will also claim credit for boosting the state toward prosperity.