OSCAR FORECAST: CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF REIGN

The 1985 Oscar ballots go in the mail Saturday to the more than 4,200 voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, and for the first time in a long time, there is very little consensus among Oscar observers what the results will be.

“I truly think this is one of the most interesting years for the Oscars because it’s unpredictable,” says Robert Osborne, a columnist for the trade paper the Hollywood Reporter and a confessed Oscar junkie. “There could be a sweep for ‘Color Purple’ or ‘Out of Africa’ or ‘Prizzi’s Honor.’ You can make the argument for any one of them.”

You could also make an argument for “Witness,” the one 1985 movie that did not seem to divide people along love-hate lines. Everybody loved it. The question, nearly a year after its release, is how well do they remember it?

A sweep for “The Color Purple” would come up at least one major award short. It won’t win for best director because Steven Spielberg was not nominated by the directors branch of the academy, a fact that many people think actually improves the movie’s chances of winning as best picture.

The non-nomination of Spielberg was perceived by many “Color Purple” fans as a collective squeezing of sour grapes by Spielberg’s colleagues. The opportunity to draw him to the stage for a best picture Oscar (he is one of the film’s four producers) may be an irresistible way to make a point.

It would not be a stunning surprise to see “Color Purple” win as best picture, and not much else.

For his part, Spielberg has chosen the high road. His only public statement about the Oscars, reported in Sunday’s Calendar, bore no sign of bitterness, even while acknowledging that he had turned down an invitation to be a presenter on the March 24 show.

“I wouldn’t miss the ceremonies for anything,” Spielberg said, adding in a prepared statement that if he were asked to participate in future Oscar shows, “I would readily accept.”

That must have been music (Quincy Jones’ score to “Color Purple?”) to academy members’ ears.

Would that we could read minds. What will those Oscar voters disposed toward a “Color Purple” sweep do when they come to the best director slate? Skip it? Not likely. There are some great stories working there too.

The category includes Sydney Pollack, one of the industry’s most respected and consistently commercial film makers. He’s never won before, despite several award-worthy efforts (“Tootsie” and “Jeremiah Johnson” leap to mind), and his “Out of Africa” is just the kind of serious, big-look picture the academy likes to reward.

The director’s category also includes two grand and gray masters of the game in 76-year-old Akira Kurosawa (“Ran”) and 79-year-old John Huston (“Prizzi’s Honor”), both of whom are ill and not likely to give the academy many more opportunities to honor them.

On either occasion, the award would be untainted. To many people, “Ran” and “Prizzi’s Honor” are the class of the 1985 field.

For anyone with a sense of history and a taste for a good Hollywood yarn, there is additional incentive to vote for Huston. If both he and his daughter Anjelica win Oscars for “Prizzi’s Honor” (she is favored in the best supporting actress category), it will be the Academy Awards’ first family sequel. Huston, as director, and his father, Walter, as a supporting actor, both won in 1948 for “Treasure of the Sierra Madre.”

The director picture may clear up a little Saturday night when the Directors Guild of America presents its own awards. Only twice in the last four decades has the Academy Award and the DGA award gone to different directors.

But a third disagreement will be unavoidable if Spielberg, who did receive a nomination from the DGA, wins Saturday.

Only a small percentage of the Directors Guild’s 7,800 members represents feature films (the guild includes directors of TV news, sports and drama, assistant directors from TV and film, plus unit production and stage managers). If enough of those voters were upset over the nominations made by the 231 members of the academy’s directors branch, they had an irresistible chance to make a statement too.

Here, based on the buzz about town, is one handicapper’s look at the major Oscar races:

Best picture:

“Out of Africa.” An Oscar thoroughbred--big, serious and commercial.

“The Color Purple.” Give ‘em hell, Steven.

“Prizzi’s Honor.” Not everyone knew it was a comedy.

“Witness.” A later release would have improved its chances.

“Kiss of the Spider Woman.” La Cage Aux Jail.

Best director:

John Huston, “Prizzi’s Honor.” As fate would have it.

Sydney Pollack, “Out of Africa.” They still owe him for “Tootsie.”

Akira Kurosawa, “Ran.” The best at his best.

Peter Weir, “Witness.” He’ll be back.

Hector Babenco, “Kiss of the Spider Woman.” Yeah, but it was an actor’s movie.

Best actor:

William Hurt, “Kiss of the Spider Woman.” A career performance.

Jack Nicholson, “Prizzi’s Honor.” Brilliant job of playing dumb.

James Garner, “Murphy’s Romance.” Would win if it were a popularity test, and it often is.

Harrison Ford, “Witness.” The year’s most improved player.

Jon Voight, “Runaway Train.” The train deserved the nomination.

Best actress:

Geraldine Page, “Trip to Bountiful.” Eighth time is a charm.

Meryl Streep, “Out of Africa.” So good, she’s starting to get on people’s nerves.

Whoopi Goldberg, “The Color Purple.” A fine debut, but she’s in tough company.

Jessica Lange, “Sweet Dreams.” Good work in a mostly unseen movie.

Anne Bancroft, “Agnes of God.” With a lesser name, the role would have been considered supporting.

Best supporting actor:

Don Ameche, “Cocoon.” The best work of his second career.

Klaus Maria Brandauer, “Out of Africa.” A sweep for “Africa” would include him.

William Hickey, “Prizzi’s Honor.” A great comic don, but not everyone knew he was in a comedy.

Robert Loggia, “Jagged Edge.” A surprise as a nominee.

Eric Roberts, “Runaway Train.” A shock as a nominee.

Best supporting actress:

Anjelica Huston, “Prizzi’s Honor.” The year’s most memorable performance, from any category.

Meg Tilley, “Agnes of God.” The best work in a flawed movie.

Oprah Winfrey, “The Color Purple.” Sofia was the most popular character in a popular movie.

Margaret Avery, “The Color Purple.” The Winfrey votes will cut her chances.

Amy Madigan, “Twice in a Lifetime.” One of several good performances in an overlooked movie.