McGUIRE: : North Carolina Will Make It an ACC Hat Trick in the Final Four

We’re down to the chalk horses in the NCAA tournament. It’s like a heavyweight championship fight: To win the title, you’ve got to score the knockout.

I see this as a round of limited upsets, with one Cinderella bracket where we have Anchors Aweigh vs. the Amboy Dukes.

Unlike a lot of people, Cleveland State--the Amboy Dukes--isn’t my biggest surprise. The Vikings are the team nobody wants to play, but whoever wanted them home-and-home got them.

Cleveland State is just the kind of team you avoid, and that’s no secret to anyone deeply involved in college basketball. It’s like there’s an unspoken agreement among the coaches of the top 50 or so programs--there’s nothing to be gained by playing Cleveland State, not when there’s a Manhattan or Maryland Eastern Shore around.

The real surprise, to me, is Navy, a team the jury is still out on. They have that Ivy League environment, and most so-called basketball experts look down on the Middies’ schedule.

Then you have the No. 1 resident of Elvis Presley’s Heartbreak Hotel, St. John’s. The Redmen, although they were the No. 1 seed in the West Regional, really were the surprise of the country, despite losing four of their top six players from last year.

I didn’t see a team like Michigan, that I said last week didn’t have the intensity to stand up through a six-game stretch like the NCAA tournament, as a big disappointment. St. John’s, though, didn’t have the talent. It was just Looie and The Truth and all that.

Since my good friend, Billy Packer, was a big Michigan backer, you can expect him to start getting Michigan and Michigan State confused a lot. That also will give him a chance to push Scott Skiles for All-Universe.

Here’s a look at the Sweet 16 teams left in the four regionals and the four teams that will reach Dallas:

WEST--A tough regional, as tough as the traffic coming in from the Houston Intercontinental Airport. Auburn has the super All-American in Chuck Person, and if Sonny Smith would threaten to leave again, this team would reach the Final Four. UNLV, though, is a little too quick for the Tigers.

In the other half of the draw, this is the prime-time game of any of the regionals, a real Monday Night-type affair. Look for North Carolina to be mentally strong now that the M*A*S*H unit has left. The Tar Heels will make it a half-court game, pushing the ball inside, and that will force Louisville into a zone. When that happens, Jeff Lebo and Steve Hale will open up with the bombs.

Denny Crum, the Louisville coach, doesn’t have the number of athletes to shotgun the number of fouls he’ll need to contain North Carolina’s four centers.

This could have been a Wristwatch Game--you know, as in the NCAA champions are given wristwatches. I’m picking North Carolina to continue the momentum and become part of the ACC’s hat trick of teams in the Final Four.

SOUTHEAST--I would have thought it would be impossible to beat Alabama three times, which Kentucky has done, and I think the Wildcats will make it a grand slam. Actually, Kentucky has no business being here. They haven’t had a center for two years, but, then again, they do have a Sky Walker.

Dale Brown, the LSU coach, has been dreaming of the Final Four, but Georgia Tech, with the best starting five in the country, will wake him up. Georgia Tech won ugly, but now that the Yellow Jackets are back home at the Omni, they’ll iron out the wrinkles.

In the regional final, Tech has too much power for Kentucky. The Wildcats have nobody to contain John Salley, who will have a field day, and Mark Price will return to his All-American level.

MIDWEST--In the meeting of the nation’s two most popular coaches, Jimmy Valvano of N.C. State and Johnny Orr of Iowa State, everything is Orr-right for the Cyclones. The Wolfpack baseline will get too many put-backs, as in shots put back in the Cyclones’ faces. The key, though, is how Nate McMillan plays the point. If he’s on, the Wolfpack is in the Elite Eight.

N.C. State will play Kansas in the regional final because Larry Brown will shut down Michigan State guard Scott Skiles with some Mickey Mouse defenses, and Danny Manning will show why we’ll win the gold in Seoul in ’88.

The Jayhawks have better chemistry than N.C. State, and they’ll be playing a chip shot from home. Kansas center Greg Dreiling is 7-1, he has been around for five years and his body is hard. He’ll neutralize Chris Washburn, who if the NBA draft were held today and everybody were eligible would be the No. 1 pick.

EAST--The Big Blue over the Little Blue. Duke is back on track, playing together better, and the best guard tandem in the country--Johnny Dawkins and Tommy Amaker--will be too much for the inexperienced DePaul guards.

Cleveland State-Navy? Get the dartboard out. I look for Navy to sink Cleveland State.

Duke, though, will pull a Pearl Harbor on the Middies. Dawkins is unstoppable, a true All-American. Teams that win the NCAA tournament by and large are senior-oriented, and that the Blue Devils are.

One more thing: Watching the first two rounds on television was too confusing, like trying to stuff 10 pounds of groceries into a five-pound sack. All baloney aside, though, Billy Packer is the best analyst in the business. He’s just not an entertainer.