The Times Poll : Herschensohn, Zschau Leap Ahead of Field

Former Los Angeles television commentator Bruce Herschensohn and Rep. Ed Zschau of Los Altos, two candidates with distinctly different ideological and geographical bases, have emerged as the front-runners for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination, The Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

Los Angeles County Supervisor Mike Antonovich still appears to be within striking distance of the nomination, but he has fallen behind the pace of the leaders in recent weeks.

Likewise, state Sen. Ed Davis of Valencia and Rep. Bobbi Fiedler of Northridge also lately have failed to gain ground. In fact, Antonovich, Davis and Fiedler, if anything, have lost support--apparently to Herschensohn.

The latest standings, based on a Times poll survey that ended Monday night, are Herschensohn 16%, Zschau 14%, Antonovich 8%, Davis 6% and Fiedler 5%. Then come Assemblyman Robert Naylor of Menlo Park 1%, economist Arthur Laffer of Palos Verdes 1% and “others” 2%.

But among the Republican voters interviewed, 43% still had no opinion about who should be the party’s candidate to face Democratic Sen. Alan Cranston in November--a clear sign that the GOP nomination still is very much up for grabs with less than two weeks remaining before the June 3 primary election. Four percent of those surveyed said they would not vote for anybody in the primary.

Zschau, considered a distant long shot when he first entered the race last fall, seemed to have the most momentum as the crowded field entered its stretch run. He has picked up nine points since a similar Times survey March 22-27, when the standings were Herschensohn 12%, Antonovich 9%, Davis 9%, Fiedler 7% and Zschau 5%.

Looking toward to the November general election, the potential GOP nominees now running the strongest races against Cranston are Zschau and Antonovich, according to a Times survey of all registered voters. But the three-term Democratic incumbent still leads all his Republican challengers by substantial margins--including Zschau by 17 points and Antonovich by 18. Then come Herschensohn, trailing by 23 points, Davis by 24, and Fiedler by 29.

When Republican voters were asked which potential nominee they thought would have the best chance of defeating Cranston, the winner was Zschau with 20%, followed by Herschensohn at 15% and Antonovich 12%.

Telephone Interviews

The Times poll, directed by I. A. Lewis, interviewed 1,652 registered voters by telephone for six days starting May 14. Included were 639 Republicans and 760 Democrats. The margin of error for all registered voters was 3% in either direction. For Republicans and Democrats it was 5%.

Evidence was found that Herschensohn, a highly visible conservative commentator on Los Angeles television for several years, has been siphoning away potential supporters from three other Southern Californians with strong conservative bases: Antonovich, Fiedler and Davis. But Herschensohn remains essentially a regional candidate with little backing in Northern California.

In the north, Zschau was the runaway leader with 20%, trailed by Antonovich with 7%, Davis 6%, Fiedler 5%, and Herschensohn, Laffer and Naylor each with only 1%. But more than half of the Northern California Republican voters, 53%, still were undecided, meaning this region will be a crucial battleground leading up to the election.

In Southern California, where roughly 60% of the state’s Republican voters reside, Herschensohn was running far ahead with 28%, followed by Zschau with 10%, Antonovich 9%, Fiedler 6%, Davis 5%, and Laffer and Naylor 1% each. There were 35% undecided.

Political Base

Zschau, whose base is the politically moderate so-called Silicon Valley on the San Francisco Peninsula, has been significantly broadening his geographical and ideological support by pouring $1.38 million into TV commercials--by far the most of any candidate--and personally campaigning from one end of the state to the other. Aides say he intends to spend another $325,000 on television before Election Day.

Zschau has improved his position in Southern California by eight points, from a minuscule 2%, since The Times survey in late March.

Beyond that, the congressman has enhanced his stock substantially among GOP conservatives, despite being attacked by campaign rivals for being “too liberal” and not sufficiently supportive of President Reagan.

Since late March, Zschau’s support has risen from 6% to 16% among Republicans who describe themselves as “somewhat” conservative, and from 11% to 17% among the “very” conservative. In the latest survey, only Herschensohn outpolled Zschau among conservatives--by four points among the “somewhat” group and 11 points among the right-wingers.

Zschau had a slim edge over Herschensohn among moderates, and Fiedler was slightly favored over Zschau among liberals.

Antonovich, who has been trying to broaden his conservative base and intends to spend roughly $250,000 on television during the closing days of the campaign, finished basically third among each of the conservative, moderate and liberal groupings.

Self-Characterizations

In this poll, 42% of the Republican voters characterized themselves as “somewhat” conservative, 14% as “very” conservative, 29% as moderate and 10% as liberal.

Herschensohn’s success in drawing support away from the natural constituencies of Antonovich, Fiedler and Davis was illustrated by an examination of the Republican voters who reported being favorably impressed with each of these trailing contenders. Among people holding favorable impressions of Antonovich, there were 4% more who planned to vote for Herschensohn than for Antonovich. The same was true for Davis. For Fiedler, the figures were even more dramatic: She was losing to Herschensohn by nine points among people who were impressed with her.

By contrast, people impressed with Herschensohn and Zschau generally were planning to vote for these candidates. Among those impressed with Herschensohn, he was the favorite by 36 points over his nearest rival, Zschau. And those impressed with Zschau intended to support him by 16 points over Herschensohn.

Clearly, Herschensohn has the most committed supporters. And he therefore would benefit the most by a low turnout on Election Day, because voters who are the most committed traditionally make more effort to go to the polls.

Among Herschensohn’s backers, 52% said they favor him “strongly.” Put another way, of the 29% of the Republican voters who “strongly” favor any candidate, 47% favor Herschensohn. No other candidate comes close to him on this measure of dedication.

Hypothetical Situation

When The Times poll recalculated its findings based on the hypothesis of an unusually low turnout, Herschensohn increased his margin over Zschau by four points, from two to six. Looked at another way, Herschensohn led Zschau by 2 to 1 among people who declared they were certain to vote, he was tied among those who said they probably would vote, and he was rejected 7 to 1 by the possible voters.

Ironically, the least well-known candidates were leading the pack: 57% of those interviewed did not have any impression of Herschensohn, favorable or unfavorable, primarily because they had not heard enough about him. The same was true with 56% of the people concerning Antonovich and 51% for Zschau. For Zschau, however, this represented a significant increase in statewide name identification over the 72% unawareness found by the Times poll in late March and 85% in early February.

Among Republican voters who did have an impression of these three candidates, it was 5 to 1 favorable for Zschau and Antonovich and 4 to 1 for Herschensohn.

It was a different story, however, for Fiedler and Davis. They continue to be dogged by their messy legal squabble of last January and February, when Davis brought charges against Fiedler for allegedly offering to help pay off his $100,000 campaign debt in order to entice him out of the race. She denied the charge. A grand jury indicted Fiedler, but a Superior Court and Los Angeles County Dist. Atty. Ira Reiner ultimately agreed there was not enough evidence to try her.

Name Recognition

The controversy clearly brought Fiedler statewide name recognition, but not the kind any politician would want. Only 30% of the people did not have an impression of her. But among those who did, it was unfavorable by a 38%-32% margin.

Davis, a former Los Angeles police chief, fared little better than Fiedler. People with an impression of him were almost evenly divided between favorable and unfavorable. The “no opinions” totaled 43%.

Furthermore, 37% of the Republican voters said they would be “less likely” to vote for Fiedler because of the controversy, and only 4% would be “more likely”--meaning a potential net drop-off in support of 33%. For Davis, if anything, it was even worse--a net drop-off of 36%.

Additionally, when GOP voters were asked which candidate would be the “most difficult” for them to support, heading the list was Fiedler with 22%, followed by Davis at 14% and Herschensohn 10%.

The Times poll found somewhat of a “gender gap” in the GOP race, with men tending to favor Herschensohn and women leaning toward Zschau.

The impression of Cranston among all registered voters was favorable by a 2-1 margin.