Predicting When Big One Will Hit : Quakes: Scientists, Animals Rated Same

There are some Californians so naive about earthquakes that they believe unusual animal behavior will warn them of an imminent quake and that they can somehow escape “the big one,” a researcher said. A UCLA study of 3,500 adults from throughout the state showed that some people are unable to conceptualize the danger of a devastating temblor and overestimate the ability of government to provide for victims in a quake’s aftermath.

“Nearly everybody surveyed believes that we’re going to have a relatively large earthquake,” said sociologist Ralph Turner, who also found that people give equal weight to folklore and scientific information regarding earthquakes.

“When we asked, ‘How seriously would you take a prediction of an earthquake by a reputable scientist?’ and ‘How seriously would you take a report of unusual animal behavior?’ . . . the scientists and animals tied for first place,” Turner said.

The three-year study showed 75% of the respondents trusting the word of a scientist and 75% saying they would believe word-of-mouth earthquake predictions based on animal behavior.

Jumping Pigs Reported

The link between animal behavior and earthquakes stems in part from events in China in the 1970s, the result of a few successful calls from “peasant observations of unusual animal behavior,” Turner said.

He described such actions as pigs jumping over fences, chickens flying to rooftops, hibernating snakes leaving their holes and “dogs and horses running around very disturbed,” as the behavior most often observed before a quake.

“There was a period when we heard a great deal about the Chinese earthquake prediction successes. Scientists here tried to investigate this and say it is partly folklore with some support.

“But the great Tangshan earthquake of 1976 sort of burst the bubble of confidence in animal behavior and earthquake prediction,” Turner said. “That was the biggest earthquake of the century there and it went unpredicted.”

When questioned about premonitions and earthquakes, 50% of the respondents said they would strongly trust their own feelings about an imminent earthquake. One-third said they would seriously consider hearsay of earthquake weather, Turner said.

Tornado Weather

“These same observations were made back during the Long Beach, Calif., earthquake of 1933,” the researcher said. “The basic population of Southern California was transplanted from the Midwest, where there are tornadoes.

“They brought with them the idea that since there was tornado weather, there might also be earthquake weather.”

A majority of the group surveyed acknowledged that they do not always take seriously warnings that a big quake will strike one day, and many said that even if one did occur, they believe their neighborhoods would be spared, Turner said.

The study also found, with the exception of black respondents, that most people believe government officials can take quick and appropriate action in a quake aftermath.

In response to a question on government spending priorities, however, people “chose public education, police protection and hospital services ahead of earthquake preparedness.

“Incredibly few people,” he added, “spontaneously thought of earthquakes when asked about community problems and hazards of living in California.”