Bush Puts Prestige on Line : Michigan GOP Primary Becomes Test of Strength

Several hundred thousand Michigan voters have been getting computer-written letters signed by Vice President George Bush asking for “a personal favor.” The favor is to vote for Bush supporters in Tuesday’s Republican primary here, which marks the unnaturally early start of the 1988 GOP presidential nominating process.

The computerized letters, along with automated phone calls from Bush, are part of a high-tech, high-powered campaign that represents a calculated and portentous gamble by the vice president.

He is investing up to $750,000 in campaign funds and, just as important, a substantial measure of his prestige to demonstrate his early domination of the incipient Republican presidential campaign. But if Bush turns in an underwhelming performance in the competition for the thousands of precinct delegates who ultimately will help shape Michigan’s contingent to the 1988 convention, he runs the risk of having his cherished front-runner status severely shaken.

To someone unfamiliar with the way American presidents are made, this might seem preposterous. Neither Bush nor anyone else has yet officially declared for the presidency. Moreover, a recent poll by Detroit’s WDIV-TV indicated that only 3.5% of likely primary voters said they knew which candidate for precinct delegate favored which 1988 presidential possibility. And a Michigan strategist for one presidential contender said: “Even those people probably weren’t telling the truth.”

Nevertheless, by expending time and money in Michigan for many months, Bush and two potential presidential rivals, television evangelist Pat Robertson and New York Rep. Jack Kemp, have transformed Tuesday’s vote into a test of strength that can help or hurt their chances of raising funds and winning support elsewhere in the country.

Indeed, some Republican professionals believe that Bush and Kemp already have been damaged in Michigan while Robertson has benefited. That is because surveys of candidates for precinct delegate positions indicate that Robertson has nearly as many as Bush and substantially more than Kemp.

Simply determining the winner in Tuesday’s voting may be next to impossible. The ballot will not show which presidential contender each delegate candidate supports, and some of the delegate candidates remain uncommitted.

Results May Take Week

All told, there will be 14,500 delegates from the state’s 6,000 election precincts. But only about 10,000 candidates will have their names on the ballots, with several thousand others likely to file as write-in candidates. State party officials say that tabulating all the results could take as long as a week but the competing presidential campaign organizations are expected to make their own claims sooner than that of how many of their supporters were elected.

If Bush, who is on a trip to the Middle East, appears to have raised the stakes for Tuesday’s vote, Robertson seems perfectly willing to call his bet.

Even as Bush’s high command in Lansing last week poured letters on behalf of the vice president into the precincts with contested races, Robertson personally stumped through the state on a three-day, nine-city swing. In a press conference here, he called Tuesday’s vote “a major primary in one of the most important states in the United States.”

‘Do Something for God’

At rallies for his delegate candidates, the ebullient preacher urged: “Go out into your neighborhoods and knock on doors. Tell them you want to do something for God and country.”

Robertson said his backers would spend no more than $65,000 on Tuesday’s vote, while Bush’s forces, he claimed, would spend more than 10 times that. “But,” he added,” we’ve got the enthusiasm of all these people.”

Most of Bush’s supporters are long-time party workers who in the past have won election as party delegates without worrying about competition. John Long, state director of Bush’s operation, noted that “it’s not been necessary in the past” for them to have to hustle for votes.

Seem Energized by Fervor

By contrast, Robertson’s backers seem to be energized by the fervor aroused by the candidate’s appeal to traditional family and religious values. “They are used to proselytizing for the things they believe in,” Long said.

While Robertson has a gift for firing up his followers, however, he appears to have a negative impact on other voters, who are bothered by his stern beliefs about personal behavior or troubled by the idea of a clergyman seeking the presidency. In a recent Detroit News poll of registered voters, 57% said that they disapproved of Robertson’s running for President.

And Robertson’s rhetoric has the potential for intensifying such reactions. “THE CHRISTIANS HAVE WON,” he claimed in a letter to his supporters around the country after the strong showing by his followers who filed for precinct delegate positions last May. And at a press conference last week, Robertson said that conservative Christians “feel more strongly” than others about God, country and close family ties.

The Third Man

Bush’s expensive organization and Robertson’s provocative personality have made Kemp the third man in the Michigan primary, a perception that has been heightened by Kemp’s own recent tactics. Kemp and his aides seem to be trying to play down the significance of Tuesday’s election.

“Rube Goldberg may have designed it,” Kemp said in describing the Michigan delegate selection process at a local news conference. He added that 1986 “is too early” to think seriously about 1988.

John Maxwell, political director of Campaign for America, Kemp’s political action committee, said that the New York congressman plans to build support over the next 18 months among the state’s uncommitted precinct delegates. He added that “the significance of Michigan will be in terms of what happens in January, 1988,” when the delegation to the Republican National Convention will be selected.

Will Make It Harder

Nevertheless, Kemp’s efforts pose a problem for Bush, if only because the delegates elected Tuesday who are favorable to Kemp will make it harder for Bush to get half of the delegate total. And if the vice president’s showing is much below a majority, his rivals will be able to point to that as a sign of weakness.

Kemp’s backers in the state are spending about $200,000 on Tuesday’s’ vote, according to Clark Durant, Kemp’s top Michigan strategist. Most of the money went into a mailing of 400,000 post cards to voters in about 1,500 locations where Kemp supporters are on the ballot.

But a voter getting such a card would have a hard time knowing Kemp had any connection with it. His name does not appear on the card, which instead bears a picture of President Reagan and the slogan: “President Reagan Needs You to Keep the Cause Alive.”

Might Be Violation

Kemp’s name was left off the card, Durant said, because the congressman is not well known in the state and because it was feared that using his name directly might be considered a violation of federal election laws.

In fact, all three potential presidential candidates active in the state--none of whom is a declared candidate--have managed to avoid having to live within federal limits on spending by declared presidential candidates.

Kemp, contending that his efforts in Michigan are intended to benefit the local GOP rather than his own presidential ambitions, set up a state political action committee, beyond the reach of federal campaign spending laws, to finance most of his organizational work here. His federal political action committee, Campaign for Prosperity, paid for some of his travel into the state.

Party Aims First

At first Bush, like Kemp, claimed that all his time and money in Michigan were aimed only at building the local party and helping other GOP candidates. He charged his costs to his federal political action committee, the Fund for America’s Future, without regard to limits on presidential campaign spending.

But when the Michigan campaign heated up, Bush established a special presidential campaign “exploratory account” to support pro-Bush candidates who are in contested races Tuesday. Under federal election laws, Bush can use the exploratory account to test support for his prospective presidential candidacy. After Bush officially becomes a candidate, all expenditures by the committee will count against the federal ceilings on presidential campaign spending.

As for Robertson, most of the initial organizing in Michigan on his behalf was conducted by the Freedom Council, a tax-exempt foundation he established to encourage Christians to get involved in grass-roots politics. After the Freedom Council recruited its delegate candidates, Robertson created the Michigan Committee for Freedom, a state political action committee, to help these delegates get elected.