Experts Paint a Grim AIDS Picture for S.F.

By June, 1988, there will be nearly 1,500 AIDS patients living in San Francisco, and as many as 5% of this city’s population may have developed AIDS-related disorders, according to a comprehensive report released Friday by the city’s Public Health Department.

The status report on acquired immune deficiency syndrome detailed how the deadly viral infection continues to spread beyond the city’s large male homosexual community to intravenous drug users, many of whom are heterosexuals.

The report estimated that 20% of the intravenous drug users here are currently infected with the AIDS virus, as contrasted to 10% one year ago. It said that the rapid increase is particularly worrisome to health officials because some drug addicts “have not responded at all to prevention education efforts.”

Drug users are thought to be a major way the AIDS virus spreads to heterosexuals--through sexual contact as well as the sharing of needles.

This report “is meant to hit people over the head with a 2-by-4,” Dr. David Werdegar, director of the city’s Public Health Department, said in an interview.

‘Awesome Illness’

“AIDS is an awesome illness within the city. We needed to refocus interest on it,” he said.

The report calls AIDS virus infections “the most serious health crisis” ever faced by San Francisco, which already has the highest concentration of AIDS patients in the country.

One out of every 15 of the city’s 750,000 residents is currently estimated to be infected with the AIDS virus, according to Werdegar. Most are asymptomatic, he said, but all are potentially infectious to others through blood or sexual contact.

The report provides an overview of all the Health Department’s AIDS activities and control strategies, ranging from public and physician education to acute medical care and mental health services.

Much of the significant new information centered on the patterns of virus transmission and the extent of the epidemic.

Increase Expected

The total number of AIDS cases in San Francisco--including victims alive and dead--is expected to increase from 2,654 as of the end of November, to about 4,500 by June, 1988. The cumulative number of deaths is expected to rise to about 3,000 from 1,500 at present. More cases are also expected to develop among minority group members, women and children.

Cases of AIDS-related disorders are expected to nearly double and total between 7,000 and 38,500 in June, 1988. About 1,200 of these patients are expected to be as severely ill as the AIDS patients, according to Werdegar.

Health officials offered this wide range of estimates because of the difficulty in calculating the number of patients who develop AIDS-related illnesses that have not been reported to authorities. But they believe the higher estimate is more likely to be correct than the lower estimate, according to the report.

Estimate Made

The report also documents concern about the continuing spread of AIDS within the city’s homosexual community, which is estimated to number about 80,000. Already, about 55% of homosexual and bisexual men in San Francisco are believed to be infected with the virus.

It also points out that the city’s rectal gonorrhea rate, which is used to monitor the extent of unsafe sexual practices, has leveled off, after a long-term pattern of fewer cases each month.

Until the increase in AIDS virus infections was noted among drug addicts in San Francisco, infected addicts were thought to be concentrated in New York and New Jersey. The infection rate among drug addicts in Los Angeles is about 3%.