The Times Poll : Cuomo, Hart Favored by State Democrat Delegates

The California Democratic activists who could play a major role in selecting the party’s presidential nominee next year currently are torn between New York Gov. Mario M. Cuomo and former Colorado Sen. Gary Hart, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

Although they tend to think that Hart would be the strongest Democratic candidate for their particular communities, Cuomo is the personal first choice of delegates to the party’s annual state convention here this weekend, interviews showed.

To recapture the clout that California once wielded in the presidential nominating process, however, the delegates overwhelmingly--by 6 to 1--favor moving up the date of the primary election. Traditionally, the primary has been held the first week in June. And that has been too late in recent elections to have any substantive influence on whom the party nominates at its national convention.

“We have roughly 10% of the country’s population and one of the largest economies in the world. Yet, as it stands now, presidential candidates--even those from California--treat us as an afterthought because the races are all but over by June,” commented Democratic Lt. Gov. Leo T. McCarthy.

There was ample evidence at this state convention that California no longer is regarded as a vital battleground for candidates seeking a presidential nomination. Of a half dozen or more potential contenders for the 1988 Democratic prize, only two plan to show up here this weekend: Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware and black leader Jesse Jackson.

By contrast, all of the leading presidential hopefuls attended state conventions leading up to the elections of 1984 and 1976, when--like today--there was no Democrat in the White House.

The Times Poll, directed by I.A. Lewis, interviewed by telephone 1,545 of the 1,760 delegates to the convention. Unlike normal polls, there was virtually no sampling error in this one. That is because normally only a relatively small sample of an entire adult population is interviewed. But in this case, 88% of those eligible to be interviewed actually were.

Committed Core

Those interviewed represent the committed core of the Democratic Party in California, the professionals, the pragmatists and the zealots who would give up a weekend to travel to damp, chilly Sacramento in midwinter to immerse themselves in politics. And they are the activists--once they choose sides--who will be in the first ranks of campaign volunteers, local advisers and money-raisers for the various presidential aspirants.

In one of the first straw polls in the nation for the 1988 campaign, these movers and shakers were asked to name the potential Democratic presidential candidate who would run “the strongest” in their areas. The activists volunteered more than a score of names in all, but Hart was the most frequently mentioned by far, being cited by 39%. Cuomo came in second at 18%. Jackson and Chrysler Corp. Chairman Lee Iacocca were a distant third with 3% each.

Hart, who won the California Democratic primary in 1984 by a margin of three percentage points over ultimate nominee Walter F. Mondale, was thought to be especially strong in regions outside the Los Angeles and San Francisco metropolitan areas. Cuomo was considered to be almost as strong as Hart in the San Francisco Bay Area.

When delegates were asked their “personal preference” for the nomination, the results were substantially different. Cuomo edged out Hart by 23% to 21%. Next came Biden, 6%; Jackson, 5%, and Iacocca, 3%.

Bay Area Stronghold

Again, Cuomo’s strongest base of support was the Bay Area, where delegates favored him over Hart by nearly 2 to 1. Hart was preferred by delegates from the remainder of Northern California. But in Los Angeles County, Cuomo got the nod over Hart by 3 to 2.

Cuomo’s political appeal to the liberal constituencies of city dwellers, Catholics and union members soared nationwide after his rousing keynote speech to the 1984 Democratic National Convention in San Francisco. Indeed, based on the Times survey, he now is the preferred candidate of California’s liberal activists.

Basically, among these delegates, Cuomo and Jackson rely on liberals for their main bases of support. Hart’s base leans toward the right and Biden’s is in the middle.

When the delegates were asked if there was any potential nominee they “could not support,” the most frequently mentioned candidate by far was Jackson, cited by 10%.

The delegates’ general impressions of Cuomo and Hart were extremely high--90% and 84% favorable, respectively. Jackson registered 76%; Iacocca 60% and Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey 59%. Biden was at 57%, but a third of the delegates had “not heard enough” about him to form any opinion.

In fact, more than a third of the delegates said they were unfamiliar with several of the potential candidates: Former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt; Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis; Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt; Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn and former Virginia Gov. Charles S. Robb.

Change in Primary

By contrast, the delegates had a very strong opinion about the date of the California primary--78% of them asserting that it should be moved up “so that our state could have more influence in the choice of the Democratic candidate for President.”

The last presidential election in which California flexed any noticeable muscle in selecting a Democratic nominee was 1972. That year, Sen. George S. McGovern won the state’s primary and--largely because of his hard-fought victory here--ultimately the nomination. In the elections since then, however, several states have developed primaries and held them early in the campaign seasons. And the nominations virtually had been sewed up by the time California’s June primary rolled around.

While Republicans are cool to the idea of an earlier primary, California’s Democratic leaders are pushing a March or April date for next year.

“California neuters itself by being so far at the end of all these primaries,” said state Atty. Gen. John Van de Kamp. “California has become irrelevant--and we should not be in that position.”

Democratic state Controller Gray Davis, an expert political fund-raiser himself, said that in presidential politics “we have become, at best, a financial watering hole for thirsty politicians.”

Traditional Ideology

While many political professionals and academicians contend that the Democratic Party must adopt a new agenda for the post-Reagan years if it is to recapture the allegiance of rank-and-file voters, this poll found activists in California still subscribing to traditional liberal ideology. For example, more than 90% favored less defense spending and more money for education and health care. Two-thirds advocated higher spending for welfare. Only 6% thought the economy was in “good” shape.

On the other hand, these activists seemed to be mirroring the growing concern of Americans about the exploding trade deficit. More than half--57%--favored protectionist measures to restrict imports. Only a fourth favored a strict free-trade policy.

Of the delegates, 25% are union members, 20% belong to consumer groups, 31% regard themselves as feminists and 34% are members of environmental organizations. Also, nearly 60% earn more than $40,000 a year--far more than the national average. By race, 70% are Anglos, 13% Latinos and 11% blacks.

LEADING DEMOCRATS

How they rate among delegates to the California Democratic Convention. Percent who:

Regarded Could Not Favorably Support Mario Cuomo 90% 1% Gary Hart 84 4 Jesse Jackson 76 10 Bill Bradley 59 0 Joseph Biden 57 0 Bruce Babbitt 46 2 Richard Gephardt 46 1 Michael Dukakis 44 0 Sam Nunn 44 4 Dale Bumpers 43 1 Jay Rockefeller 42 0 Charles Robb 41 1