Official Sees Contra Win in 2-4 Years : Congress Told That Victory Would Be Political, Not Military

Nicaragua’s contra rebels can achieve a political victory against their country’s leftist Sandinista government within two to four years if military aid from the United States continues uninterrupted, a high Reagan Administration official told Congress today.

The comment came as the Senate Foreign Relations Committee considered legislation to end all U.S. aid to the Nicaraguan rebels and to block $40 million still in the aid pipeline.

The official, Elliott Abrams, assistant secretary of state for inter-American affairs, outlined the Administration’s case for continued support for the contras and said diplomatic efforts alone will prove insufficient to force the Sandinistas to accept democratic change.

Another witness, special Reagan Administration envoy Philip C. Habib, agreed with Abrams and added that in any case the negotiating process has been blocked by the Sandinistas.

‘Committed Revolutionaries’

“The Sandinistas are committed Marxist-Leninist revolutionaries who will only negotiate in earnest when under pressure,” Habib said.

Under questioning by senators, Abrams reiterated that it is not U.S. policy to seek an outright military victory in which “contra tanks would roll into Managua.”

“Outright military victory has never been part of U.S. policy,” Abrams said. Rather, he said, the United States seeks a “political victory” that is driven by military pressure.

“How long will it take to win?” asked Sen. Joseph R. Biden (D-Del.).

“I hate to be pinned down in time but I’ll give you an answer,” Abrams said. “We think it will take two to four years.”

‘Down the Wrong Road’

Biden replied: “I just think that it is not at all realistic, absent a significant change in military aid and what we are willing to back that aid up with. I believe the military operation is closing out the possibility of a negotiated solution and sending us down the wrong road.”

But Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-Ind.) said it is important that the United States demonstrate “staying power” in Central America.

To walk away from the contras, he said, is to guarantee “a communist government of Nicaragua with a big army that is a threat to its neighbors and, I think, a general mess.”

Congress, after a long struggle last year, approved $100 million in military and logistical aid for the contras. The Reagan Administration is seeking a comparable amount for the next fiscal year.