A Poll of the Experts : It’s Almost Unanimous: the Fight Belongs to Hagler

Odds favoring Marvin Hagler over Sugar Ray Leonard in their fight on a Caesars Palace tennis court tonight hovered at 3-1 all last week.

However, if a poll of boxing people and accredited journalists by The Times means anything, something like 15-1 would be more like it. Either that, or a lot of cowards are wearing press badges in Las Vegas this week.

Of 50 people polled, only four picked Leonard. Sugar Ray, most seem to believe, can’t possibly have retained sufficient sharpness after having only one fight in 62 months. The second-most-often cited reason for favoring Hagler is that Leonard is not a natural middleweight while Hagler is.

As Jerry Lisker of the New York Post put it: “Natural weight wins, always.”

Hagler himself passed that tip along at a news conference this week when he said: “I’ve weighed 158 pounds since 1973. Leonard’s a welterweight.”

One thing’s for sure. If Tunney-Dempsey II became the Long Count Fight, and Ali-Frazier II the Thrilla in Manila, this one might go down as the Media Monster.

Press officials here issued approximately 1,100 media credentials and denied them to 250 others. The previous high for a boxing show is believed to be 780, for Hagler-Hearns in 1985.

The Washington Post and Boston Globe each have seven reporters here. Only the Las Vegas Review-Journal (9) and the Las Vegas Sun (8) have more. About 300 reporters won’t even be in the stadium tonight--they’ll watch the bout on a big screen in the Caesars tennis pavilion.

There are reporters from 32 countries, including nine from England.

Irving Rudd, 69, a boxing publicist since the 1930s, put the media crunch in another perspective.

“When I was doing New York and New Jersey fight shows in the 1930s, 1,500 bucks was a huge gate,” he said. “For this fight, for the eight weeks I spent in Hilton Head (at Sugar Ray Leonard’s South Carolina training camp) and the last two weeks here--just returning writers’ phone calls--my phone bill alone will be 1,500 bucks.”

The Times poll:

MARIO BRUNO, Tuttosport Newspaper, Turin, Italy: Hagler, very, very easily. It is not possible for a man to lay off five years and come back and defeat a man like Hagler.

AL BERNSTEIN, ESPN boxing commentator: Hagler, in 6 or 8. He’ll get inside, where Sugar Ray won’t be able to handle him.

DAVE KINDRED, Atlanta Constitution: Hagler by decision. I’d like to see Ray win, but Hagler’s too strong.

DICK YOUNG, New York Post: Hagler, quickly. It’s a mismatch. One guy hasn’t fought for years and has what I consider to be a physical impairment . . . and if it isn’t a physical impairment, it’s a mental impairment.

LACY BANKS, Chicago Sun-Times: Hagler in 5, with wit and grit. He’ll grind Leonard down. You can’t fool with Mother Nature.

JACK FISKE, San Francisco Chronicle: Hagler, inside 8. The other guy just hasn’t fought.

GIULIANO BEVILACQUA, Guerin Sportivo magazine, Bologna, Italy: Hagler. He’s been training and boxing the last five years, Leonard has done nothing. And he wasn’t that sharp when he quit.

GIL CLANCY, CBS boxing commentator: Hagler will win. We’ll see a different Leonard from what we remember. He won’t move like the Leonard of old.

EDDIE FUTCH, boxing trainer: I favor Hagler. Marvin’s a legitimate middleweight, Leonard is not. I can’t see Ray winning, after that layoff and against a guy of Marvin’s ability. There has to be some erosion.

ELMER SMITH, Philadelphia Daily News: The weight of time and the layoff is too much for Ray. There are too many things going against him. He hasn’t fought in five years and he’s never been hit by a strong middleweight.

SALLY JENKINS, Washington Post: Hagler, mainly because I don’t believe anyone can come back from that long of a layoff without losing something.

JON SARACENO, USA Today: Hagler, KO 6. He’ll overpower Leonard.

TIM DAHLBERG, Associated Press: Hagler, by a decision. The inactivity has taken away some of Leonard’s skills and the added weight will slow him down. But he’s still smart enough to go the distance.

BILL CENTER, San Diego Union: I thought Leonard would win until two days ago . . . now I think Hagler will cut off the ring on Ray and catch him.

DAVE ANDERSON, New York Times: Hagler in 8. Leonard has been out five years and he expects to beat Marvin Hagler the first time out? Maybe on a cut, but that’s the only way.

CARLOS LOSAURO, La Nacion, Buenos Aires: Hagler, because he has more technique, more punch.

NEIL ALLEN, London Evening Standard: Hagler. The other guy is fooling himself.

GENE FULLMER, former middleweight champion: When I beat Carmen Basilio, I was much stronger than he was, because he was a welterweight. Sugar Ray will find that out, too.

GENNA TANAKA, Channel 12, Tokyo: Hagler by a decision. Sugar Ray will be able to go the distance at long range, but he will lose.

LEIGH MONTVILLE, Boston Globe: Hagler in 8. Too big, too strong.

JOE GERGEN, Newsday: Hagler in 8. He’s stronger, more fit. The only edge I give Leonard is his ego.

ED SCHUYLER, JR., Associated Press: Hagler. People don’t beat good fighters after fighting one club fighter in 62 months.

RICHIE SANDOVAL, former bantamweight champion: The most active guy should win, and that’s Hagler.

GEORGE KIMBALL, Boston Globe: Hagler in 10, because the fight is only scheduled for 12. If it was for 15, I’d pick him in 13. He’ll wear Leonard down.

ALAN GREENBERG, Hartford Courant: Hagler will win. He’s been in the ring in the last five years.

TOMMY HEARNS, WBC light-heavyweight champion (and loser to both Leonard and Hagler): I’m going with Leonard, and I think it’ll go the distance. But the layoff will take its toll in the later rounds.

SVEN HOLMBERG, Boxning Magacine, Stockholm: Hagler. Sugar Ray has been away too long and Hagler is too strong. I give Sugar Ray a chance if he’s still around by the fifth and boxing well.

TONY KORNHEISER, Washington Post: Leonard in 2. Hagler has a good chin, he’ll last a round.

LOWELL COHN, San Francisco Chronicle: Hagler, inside 8. He’s bigger, stronger, takes a better punch and hits harder. Sugar Ray is a special athlete, but you can’t come back and be sharp--look at John McEnroe.

MIKE LITTWIN, Baltimore Sun: Hagler. Leonard hasn’t fought in five years and that stiff Hagler is bigger.

HAL BOCK, Associated Press: Hagler in 8. I don’t think you can lay off as long as he (Leonard) has and win.

STEVE SNEDDON, Reno Gazette-Journal: I don’t think Leonard has a chance.

JERRY IZENBERG, Newark Star-Ledger: Hagler, KO 3. There are no secret grottos and what Ray Leonard lost in Worcester, Mass., (where he defeated Kevin Howard in his only bout in the last 62 months), I don’t expect him to find in Las Vegas.

MIKE KATZ, New York Daily News: Leonard in 9. He knows how to beat this guy, and I think he’s tough enough to do it. Hagler has regressed.

EMANUEL STEWARD, boxing trainer: Hagler. Until three weeks ago, I was picking Leonard, but I’ve heard Leonard in training was laying on the ropes a lot, doing cute stuff. That tells me his legs aren’t in shape, and he’ll need his legs against Hagler. It’ll drift into a physical fight by the third or fourth round, and it should be close to over by the fifth.

OSMO KANERVA, Hymy Lehti Magazine, Helsinki, Finland: Hagler in 5. Leonard is at best a junior middleweight. And he’s been away too long.

LARRY MERCHANT, HBO commentator: Hagler in 9. Because I wouldn’t let a surgeon operate on me who hadn’t operated regularly for five years.

MICHAEL O’REGAN, News Limited Newspaper Group, Australia: Hagler. No one can come back and do well after that long of a layoff.

ROYCE FEOUR, Las Vegas Review-Journal: Hagler, simply because he’s tougher, better fighter. How can Leonard be sharp?

RON RAPOPORT, Chicago Sun-Times: Hagler in 3. It’s a fight that should never have been made and one that will be mercifully brief.

WALLACE MATTHEWS, Newsday: Hagler, KO 7. I don’t think Ray can overcome the effects of the layoff and the psychological effects of the eye injury. Also, Hagler is stronger at the weight.

GOICHI ODA, Nippon Sports Magazine, Tokyo: Hagler. Leonard has been gone too long.

BILL NACK, Sports Illustrated: Leonard will stop Hagler in 10, maybe on a cut. I have no evidence to back this up, but there are indications Hagler has slipped a lot. Ray is a young 30, Hagler an old 32.

HENRIK FAEREVAAG, Bergens Tidende newspaper, Bergen, Norway: Hagler will win. Five years away is too much for Leonard. If Leonard wins, it would be the surprise of the decade.

MIKE MARLEY, New York Post: Hagler in 6. Leonard is coming back too late with too little.

NESTOR LOPEZ, Radio commentator, Caracas, Venezuela: Hagler. He’s a better fighter, stronger, more fit.

DAVE NIGHTINGALE, The Sporting News: Hagler in 8. Eventually, Hagler catches him. If he doesn’t, if it goes the distance, Leonard wins. No question.

MORT SHARNIK, CBS boxing consultant: Hagler in 8, but I can justify it both ways. Leonard is unpunched, true, but he’s also fresh. Remember, Hagler was wobbled by Hearns and Mugabi. I can also see Leonard going rat-tat-tat on that scar tissue on Marvin’s brows and cutting him.

JERRY LISKER, New York Post: Hagler. Natural weight wins, always. Marvin’s a natural middleweight and Sugar Ray isn’t.

GERARD MARCOUT, Agence France Presse: Hagler, in 3. He’s stronger and more experienced at the weight. Leonard wins only on a cut or bad decision.