Runoff Election Is Viewed as Pivotal : All Eyes on Showdown in 33rd Senate District

Legislators joke that until next Tuesday’s special election is over, the state Senate may find it easier to muster a quorum in Norwalk than in the Capitol.

Lawmakers and their staffs are shuttling to Norwalk for fund-raisers and precinct-walking because it is the heart of the suburban 33rd Senate District, where Republican Wayne Grisham and Democrat Cecil N. Green are squaring off in a runoff election that is generally regarded as a toss-up.

Among other things, the outcome could prompt a change in the state Senate leadership, test the coattails of Gov. George Deukmejian, who has supported Grisham enthusiastically, and foreshadow which party will control the politically charged process of reapportioning legislative and congressional districts in the early 1990s.

Campaigning for Green, U.S. Sen. Alan Cranston (D-Calif.) underscored the high stakes when he recently declared “every legislative race now relates to reapportionment.”

Balance Could Be Tipped

“The national angle is that California has the largest . . . congressional delegation in the country, and if we lost control of reapportionment we could lose 10 seats,” Cranston said. “And that could tip the balance between the parties.”

Grisham, 64, a Norwalk assemblyman, was widely regarded as the favorite in a March 17 primary, but he finished second to Green, 63, a Norwalk city councilman and real estate consultant, in an eight-candidate race. Tuesday’s runoff is necessary because no candidate received an outright majority in the primary. (Green had 48% to Grisham’s 43.6%.) Also on the ballot are Libertarian Lee Connelly, 34, and Ed Evans, 39, of the Peace and Freedom Party.

They are seeking the seat held by former Sen. Paul Carpenter (D-Cypress), who left office in January after he won a seat on the state Board of Equalization.

In 1984, Carpenter held the seat despite a strong GOP challenge, but the district has been increasingly receptive to Republican candidates. About 75% of the district is in southeastern Los Angeles County and the remainder is in northwestern Orange County. Democrats outnumber Republicans 54% to 38%.

By next Tuesday, the total campaign price tag is expected to exceed $2 million, with most of the money spent on reaching voters through the mail with slick, targeted appeals. Despite the heavy spending, a candidates’ forum last week in Downey attracted only about 100 people.

So far, Green’s campaign has reported raising more than $900,000, most of it channeled to him by Senate President Pro Tem David A. Roberti (D-Los Angeles). Grisham, with the help of the California Republican Party and Senate Republican Leader James W. Nielsen, has raised about $600,000.

Angry Republicans

Roberti’s leadership, which was threatened before the primary, was bolstered by Green’s surprising primary strength. Nielsen, meanwhile, was threatened with dismissal by Senate Republicans angry at Grisham’s poor showing.

To shore up Grisham’s campaign, the GOP enlisted political heavyweights Stuart K. Spencer and Kenneth L. Khachigian as part-time volunteer consultants. Lance Tarrance, pollster for Gov. Deukmejian’s reelection effort, was hired as the campaign pollster. They have won an endorsement for Grisham from President Reagan.

One of the new campaign team’s first goals was to counter a mailer sent on the eve of the primary, paid for in part by Carpenter. It repeated charges that the white-haired Grisham had fired a Capitol secretary after she rebuffed his sexual advances.

The Grisham campaign responded with a letter from the candidate’s wife, Millie, printed on cream-colored stationery and sent to 86,000 voters, along with a photo of the couple and their home telephone number. In defending her husband, Millie Grisham told voters that the couple “wouldn’t be scared away by people who put their ambitions ahead of the truth and common decency.”

Green Distances Himself

Green, who was guided into the race by Carpenter, has distanced himself from the accusation and Carpenter’s tactics.

While Grisham has a new campaign team, Green is relying on a staff supplied by Senate Democrats and hundreds of volunteers who walk precincts each weekend. In the primary, Green’s campaign was regarded as better at targeting its voters and getting them to the polls. Larry Sheingold, Green’s campaign consultant, predicted that the outcome will turn on “who does a better job of getting the vote out on May 12.”

So far, few issues have emerged. Both Green and Grisham portray themselves as conservatives who mirror the sentiments of voters in the older, blue-collar neighborhoods.

At the Downey forum, Green accused Grisham of “flip-flopping” on several major Assembly votes. Grisham acknowledged that he has “changed a little bit lately.” For instance, last month he was among four Republicans who joined 43 Democrats in voting against Deukmejian’s proposed $300-million budget cut in the Medi-Cal program. Grisham said he was responding to calls and letters from constituents.

Mark Gladstone reported from Sacramento and Steven R. Churm from Cerritos.