A Small Loss Would Suit McCarthy

When Lt. Gov. Leo T. McCarthy talks about winning votes in Orange County for the 1988 U.S. Senate race, he says he would be “overjoyed” to get the same margin he got here in his reelection last year.

He would have good reason to be overjoyed. He might even have reason to be shocked, as would incumbent U.S. Sen. Pete Wilson (R-Calif.), whom McCarthy plans to challenge.

In the 1986 lieutenant governor’s race, the San Francisco Democrat received 40.4% of the vote. That’s nearly five percentage points more than the Democratic Party’s share of registered voters in the county.

And it meant that Republican candidate Mike Curb won in Orange County by less than a 102,000-vote margin--something less than a landslide in a county where registration favors Republicans by 54.5% to 35.6%, with the remaining voters divided among other parties and independent registration.

Pausing at the dedication of a new addition to Western Medical Center-Bartlett in Santa Ana last week, McCarthy said he was setting his sights on a goodly share of the 80,000 or so registered independents in the county and dares to think he can attract the votes of one out of five Republicans in 1988.

Political observers point out, however, that the 1986 election may not be much of a gauge of what might happen in the Senate race. Last fall, McCarthy was the incumbent and Curb had, as they say in political circles, “a lot of negatives.”

Wilson is another matter. While McCarthy is attempting to portray him as a lackluster, do-nothing senator, Wilson has incumbency on his side as well as solid Republican backing. He can expect to draw heavy financial and voter support here.

“He is a Republican that Republicans will be comfortable with and stay with in Orange County,” political consultant Harvey Englander predicted. “Leo will be able to bring money out of Orange County, but I wouldn’t count on his being able to make a dent on the plurality that Wilson’s going to get in this county.”

Orange County Republican Party Chairman Tom Fuentes also believes Wilson will have little trouble with McCarthy here on election day. “The momentum of his incumbency will be a very sustaining and enthusiastic source of support, which will launch his reelection, giving it time to blossom as a campaign without the challenge of a primary race,” Fuentes said.

The first thing McCarthy has to do is secure his party’s nomination in the Senate primary a year from now. Other Democrats talking of running are Secretary of State March Fong Eu, ABC-TV commentator Bill Press and Rep. Robert T. Matsui of Sacramento. Many political observers believe Eu could pose a problem for McCarthy.

“I’m worried about it,” said Richard J. O’Neill, former Orange County Democratic Party chairman. “He should win, but I’m not 100% positive.”

McCarthy, a 56-year-old New Zealand native who moved with his family to San Francisco at the age of 4 and has remained there since, was a San Francisco supervisor before his election to the Assembly in 1968. There, he quickly rose in the leadership ranks. He held the powerful Speaker’s job for five years before being deposed after a bitter intramural fight among Democrats that resulted in the election of fellow San Franciscan Willie Brown to the post.

As a legislator, McCarthy was known for his strong support of environmental issues as well as legislation involving the elderly.

Though he lost the Speaker’s post, McCarthy has never lost an election. But to reach the U.S. Senate, he will have to do well enough in Orange County so that the vote here does not, as one Democratic activist put it, “sink his campaign” in the rest of the state.

Kurt Haunfelner, McCarthy’s assistant chief of staff in Southern California, said that while the campaign concedes Orange County to Wilson, the “pivotal question” is the same one that faces any statewide Democratic candidate: How much can one lose Orange County by and still have a statewide victory?

The old rule of thumb, developed during the mid-1970s, was that a Democratic candidate in a statewide race could lose the county by no more than 100,000 votes. But voter registration figures have gone up, and no one seems to be sure just what the magic number is now.

U.S. Sen. Alan Cranston (D-Calif.), in last fall’s contest with Ed Zschau, won statewide despite losing the county by 176,000 votes. When former Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr. lost the U.S. Senate seat to Wilson in 1982, he fell about 235,000 short of Wilson in Orange County.

Hard at Work

In an attempt to reduce the margin of Wilson’s victory in Orange County, McCarthy continues to work very hard to cultivate support, both financial and otherwise. As O’Neill put it, McCarthy goes “wherever they’re cutting ribbons. He takes things that an ordinary lieutenant governor wouldn’t take.”

At the dedication last week in Santa Ana, McCarthy paused for a few minutes to talk about his campaign.

He said he expects his first major fund-raiser in Orange County, a June 17 $1,000-per-person dinner, to net him $100,000 and is planning other fund-raising events later in the year. Orange County residents contributed about $150,000 to his most recent campaign for lieutenant governor, according to Haunfelner.

But O’Neill warned that the “next $100,000 is what is going to be impossible.” He added, “You get it all or most of it first time around. Where does he get the rest of it?”

Because federal election laws prohibit individuals from contributing more than $1,000 for the primary and $1,000 for the general election, raising money for a U.S. Senate campaign has forced McCarthy to develop many new supporters.

“It’s a new learning experience for me,” he said. His goal is to raise a total of $9 million.

August Fund-Raisers

Wilson, for his part, has major fund-raisers tentatively planned for August in Orange County. Scott Hart, special assistant to Wilson, said the senator expects to raise more than $1 million from Orange County before the end of the year. State Sen. John Seymour (R-Anaheim) is chairman of his reelection steering committee.

McCarthy has good support in Orange County among business and professional Democrats. He is particularly appreciated for his untiring encouragement and support for the party in a county where it is not unusual for Democrats to jokingly introduce themselves as “the only Democrat in the county.”

McCarthy was credited as the “founding father” of the five-year-old Democratic Foundation, whose $1,000-a-year members have given Democrats a place to focus their efforts, develop new candidates and socialize.

“He was calling everyone he could think of and saying, ‘Don’t give up. Don’t give up. Don’t give up,’ ” said Michael Ray, chairman of the Democratic Foundation. McCarthy also was the group’s first speaker. McCarthy said he believes he will be “fortunate enough to have almost all of the foundation members involved in my Senate campaign.”

Affiliated with the foundation, which has 98 members, are the Democratic Associates, whose more than 500 members pay $50 a year each to support the party and attend political and social events. McCarthy also is banking on them for support.

But, as Democratic activist Bill Shane, president and chief operating officer of Mercury Savings, put it, “That he’s a nice guy and lieutenant governor is not enough. He needs to carve out some issues.”

McCarthy has chosen initially to attack Wilson for what he contends is his unquestioning support of every request for defense spending without regard to the growing federal deficit.

‘Setting National Directions’

“You can’t vote for every Defense Department request and vote for massive subsidies of industries across the country and expect to balance the budget,” McCarthy said.

He added, in a theme that is likely to dominate his campaign: “I think people want a U.S. senator from California to be setting national directions in the economy and in other policy areas, and that requires you to say ‘no’ as well as say ‘yes,’ to make tough choices. And the incumbent goes with the flow.”

John Hanna, the county’s Democratic Party chairman, said McCarthy has “got to convince people that Pete Wilson is not tough enough.”

“Whether Leo can do that, I don’t know,” Hanna said. “I think he can. But a lot depends on his campaign. I’ve seen great candidates--I think Leo is a great candidate--but I’ve seen great candidates flounder. He’ll have a very tough opponent. Whether Leo can beat him is a very tough question.”

As for McCarthy, he has it firmly in mind what he would like from Orange County.

“I would be happy to get the same vote I got last year,” McCarthy said, referring to his 258,941 showing against Curb’s 360,829 votes. “I’d be overjoyed.”