PRO FOOTBALL ’87 : AFC PREVIEW : Field is Clouded, but Sun Should Shine on Seattle at Last

Going into the National Football League’s 68th opening day on Sunday, one thing seems true of most American Conference teams.

They have what it takes to finish second in the conference this year, or at least third.

It isn’t so clear that any of them can win. They all look like runners-up--although the Seattle Seahawks, Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals and one or two others are getting some support as first-place teams.

The Super Bowl will be played in San Diego Jan. 31, and several AFC scouts and coaches have concluded that the Seahawks have the best chance to get there.

They aren’t saying this with a lot of confidence, however, suggesting that the Seahawks could be beaten out by Cleveland, the Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, New England Patriots and no fewer than five others.

There are, in other words, 10 pretty good AFC teams this year, but no real standout.

What’s more, in the next five months, it is doubtful that any of the 10 will improve enough to threaten the best of the NFC’s top 5--the Rams, New York Giants, Chicago Bears, Washington Redskins or San Francisco 49ers--in Super Bowl XXII.

Though the second-level clubs of both conferences seem competitive, the NFC appears to be far stronger at the top.

The thing that unifies the AFC is that its 1987 title contenders all have major, potentially crippling weaknesses that jeopardize otherwise sound football clubs.

In Seattle, for example, the quarterbacking has been erratic with Dave Krieg. Few Super Bowls have been won without consistency at that position.

In Denver and Cleveland, there are quality quarterbacks in John Elway and Bernie Kosar. But the Broncos have an indifferent running game and the Browns an inconsistent defense.

As for the Raiders, Al Davis is breaking in a new quarterback and a new offensive line at the same time, a dangerous parlay.

The AFC’s 1985 champion Patriots are a finesse team like the ’86 champion Broncos, meaning that neither is tough enough--or runs the ball hard enough--to count on beating a tough opponent.

The Bengals and Miami Dolphins have shaky defenses. The Kansas City Chiefs have a shaky offense. The Buffalo Bills have an improving, but still shaky, team. Injuries have cut up the New York Jets.

AFC’S TOP 10

1. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

At just the right time--in a year of extreme parity in the once-dominant AFC--Chuck Knox has come up with the best team he’s had in 15 seasons as an NFL coach.

“Chuck is one of the few coaches with three superstars,” said Norm Pollom, a scout for the Buffalo Bills, identifying running back Curt Warner, wide receiver Steve Largent and safety Kenny Easley.

Still, the Knox question remains unchanged after 15 years: Does he have a Super Bowl quarterback yet? The pressure is on Krieg, who was the second-rated passer in the conference last season but has yet to prove he can be a big winner.

The Seahawks do have a fourth superstar--their stadium. At home, Kingdome fans intimidate opponents--even the NFL champion Giants. It was in Seattle last year that the Giants lost for the only time in their last 18 games.

Last year, however, when the Seahawks won their last five--over the Eagles, Cowboys, Raiders, Chargers and Broncos--they may have proved less than it seemed, since they were out of the race at the time. The Seahawk jury is still out.

2. CLEVELAND BROWNS

In their big moment last January, in the AFC title game, the Browns led Denver with 38 seconds left--until Elway finished a 98-yard drive to tie the game, and the Broncos went on to win in overtime. If that drive wasn’t something of a fluke, why did Elway wait till the last minute to do it?

On the other hand, in an earlier playoff game last winter, a beaten-up Jet team also carried Cleveland into overtime. Conclusion: Neither the Broncos nor Browns really showed very much in the 1986 playoffs. Since then, conceivably, the Browns have improved the most with the return of running backs Earnest Byner and Kevin Mack from injury-plagued seasons.

Kosar is strongest in the one area where an NFL quarterback can continually improve the most--finding the open receiver. But trading Chip Banks to San Diego cost the Browns’ defense a chance to improve. They had to draft a linebacker first, the highly regarded Mike Junkin.

3. CINCINNATI BENGALS

The most erratic team in pro football is led by the most erratic of the NFL’s good quarterbacks, Boomer Esiason. As produced by Paul Brown and coached by Sam Wyche, the Bengals have created the league’s top-rated offense, which they combine with an unstable defense. The result last year was a team that could score 3 points one week and 52 the next. The 1987 Bengals may be the same type of team

Crazily, in 1986, the Bengals won by such scores as 36-33, 34-28, 31-28 and 34-7 over Seattle. They also lost to Houston, 32-28, to Denver, 34-28, and to Pittsburgh, 30-9.

4. DENVER BRONCOS

If they don’t win it, the Broncos will be close. They usually are. Under Coach Dan Reeves, the Broncos have finished the last three regular seasons 13-3, 11-5 and 11-5. Against long odds, their quarterback, Elway, even made it close for more than a half against the Giants in last winter’s Super Bowl. The Broncos’ problem is that their passer is also their ground game.

There is also trouble on defense, where the retirement of Tom Jackson, Louis Wright, Steve Foley, Barney Chavous and Rubin Carter has taken away crucial leadership and experience. Nonetheless, with players such as Karl Mecklenburg, defensive coordinator Joe Collier always manages to make do on a club that seems to prefer to strengthen the other platoon. The Broncos’ No. 1 draft choice in 1987, typically, is sure-handed wide receiver Ricky Nattiel.

5. RAIDERS

The history of the Raiders is that they follow a dull season with a bright one--and last year’s wasn’t as dull as it seemed at the end. After a slow start, the Raiders had put things back together, winning 8 out of 9 at midseason, and were standing 8-4 on Nov. 30 when a fumble in overtime against the Philadelphia Eagles turned an almost certain win into defeat and led to an uncharacteristic Raider collapse.

Coach Tom Flores has some aces in his offense, but his defense might be on a decline--although the return of defensive coordinator Charlie Sumner should be good for a win or two. Jim Plunkett, who is starting the season on injured reserve, might win one or two. Bo Jackson could win one or two. The great problem is the new offensive line. Up there, the gang will have to protect young quarterback Rusty Hilger, or else this team doesn’t have a chance.

6. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

For several years, the Patriots have led the AFC and, at times, the NFL, in quantity of quality players. At the same time, they’ve had a lot of injuries. New England is not a roughneck team like the Bears, Giants or Raiders, so it has trouble running the ball. Its trademark people are quarterback Tony Eason, a smooth passer, and Stanley Morgan, one of the smoothest of the NFL’s receivers. A distinctive asset is backup quarterback Steve Grogan, who calls all the plays for Eason and himself.

7. MIAMI DOLPHINS

This is a team with four aces--quarterback Dan Marino, wide receivers Mark Clayton and Mark Duper, and Coach Don Shula. Four aces will usually win in Las Vegas, but not in football.

8. NEW YORK JETS

The complementary role that defense plays to offense was never better illustrated than by the Jets last year, when their fast start (10-1) was negated by a series of injuries that first disrupted the defense, then knocked the offense off-stride. The Jets are still hurt: defensive stars Joe Klecko and Lance Mehl are still out, and no one knows if Mark Gastineau will ever be the same. Quarterback Ken O’Brien and Coach Joe Walton are now suspect.

9. BUFFALO BILLS

This team, drafting high after low finishes for many years, has picked up some defensive talent, including end Bruce Smith, and some quality in the offensive line, behind which stands a highly paid quarterback, Jim Kelly. Kelly’s reputation was made in the USFL in run ‘n’ shoot football--which tends to make passers look better than they are. This is the year for Kelly to prove that he belongs in the NFL.

10: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Drafts by the last two coaches, Marv Levy and John Mackovic, have built the Chiefs a fine defense and enriched their special teams, offensive line, and pass receiving. But the Chiefs have recently had big troubles in two fairly important areas--throwing and running the ball--and the new coach, Frank Gansz, can do neither. He hopes rookie runners Paul Palmer and Christian Okoye will help out.

THE DIVISIONS

East: Except for the Patriots, this group is in some disarray. Injuries and defensive problems have brought down the Dolphins and Jets--and the Bills have won only 8 of their last 48 games. It will be an upset if the Indianapolis Colts are heard from despite the three-game winning streak that brought them to the end of 1986, a streak that cost them the draft rights to Vinny Testaverde.

Central: The Browns are steadier, the Bengals more spectacular. The Houston Oilers have drafted enough talent in recent years to make a run for the divisional title. Quarterback Warren Moon, unsigned Alonzo Highsmith, fast receivers, good blockers and an improving defense could move them in that direction. The Pittsburgh Steelers seem to have the right machinery but the parts they’ve bought don’t fit the machine.

West: The Seahawks and Broncos are at the top. The Raiders, Chiefs and San Diego Chargers are racing for third place. The Chargers’ new front office chief is former Raider Steve Ortmayer, who has fine skills with personnel decisions. The San Diego defense is better with Banks, the offense is better with ex-Ram running back Barry Redden. The indispensable Charger is quarterback Dan Fouts.