In-Depth Study Sees ‘Very Close’ Vote : Parties Nearly Even in 1988 Presidential Race

America’s two major political parties are heading into the 1988 presidential race “almost dead even,” with the Democrats’ edge in voter numbers being offset by Republican patterns of higher turnout and loyalty to GOP candidates, according to an in-depth study of the electorate taken for Times Mirror Co.

The end result likely will be a November election “that is very close,” analysts predicted.

Leaving aside the question of who might be the presidential nominees, there is both good news and bad news for each party in the massive public opinion survey conducted by The Gallup Organization. For example:

--President Reagan has put together a coalition of voter groups as diverse as Franklin D. Roosevelt’s old New Deal alliance and attracted young people who “could become a GOP bedrock into the next century,” the researchers said. But, while Reagan is the good news for Republicans, he also is the bad news.

“The Iran- contra affair has tarnished the Republican image as the party of competent management” and eroded the voters’ good feelings about the state of the nation, the survey found.

--Also, the analysts continued, although white evangelicals have moved into the GOP and strengthened it, they also have split the party. “Religion itself divides the solidly Republican ranks more than any other political value,” they observed.

--For Democrats, the good news is that they possess “a strong, unifying value--social justice--that seems to strike the right chord with the public today” and “probably will be the most important single issue in 1988.”

Gallup, which defines social justice as “whether you believe government should help the disadvantaged and guarantee equality,” said it is the one value that distinguishes the Democrats from the Republicans. Other good news for the Democrats is that the public views them “as better able to bring about the changes the country needs most.” And the party “has substantially improved its image since 1984,” in part because of Reagan’s Iran- contra mess and “the fading memory of Jimmy Carter.”

--But the bad news is that “Democrats have an age problem. . . . (They) can no longer claim to be the party of youth,” the analysts reported. The party’s biggest constituency, deeply rooted in F.D.R.’s New Deal, “is dying and not being replaced.”

Beyond that, the party is “still hurt by good times and Americans’ optimism”; it “continues to be perceived as having a problem selecting good candidates,” and its voters are divided about whether tax dollars should be spent for the poor or for the middle class.

Commissioned by Times Mirror, which publishes the Los Angeles Times and owns several other newspapers, broadcasting stations and magazines, The Gallup Organization conducted face-to-face, hourlong interviews with 4,244 adults in more than 300 locales last April 25-May 10. Follow-up interviews were conducted Sept. 1-15 with 1,903 of those initially surveyed. The margin of error is 2%.

‘Most Exhaustive’

In analyzing the results, Gallup called it “the most exhaustive study of the American electorate ever undertaken.”

The survey was directed by Gallup President Andrew Kohut in consultation with Norman Ornstein, a political analyst with the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. The results were released Wednesday at the National Press Club here by Robert F. Erburu, chairman and chief executive officer of Times Mirror.

“What is most important about this study,” Erburu told a Press Club luncheon, “is the unprecedented sweep and intimacy it brings to its portrayal of the American electorate. If you liken past surveys to black-and-white snapshots of the electorate, think of this study as not only being in color, but also in three dimensions.”

Erburu announced that Times Mirror “will continue this study right up through Election Day, 1988,” with several regional surveys plus another nationwide poll early next year. It is a very expensive undertaking, he noted, costing approximately $500,000 for the “base survey” and probably “double that” for the entire project.

Gallup ran the data through a computer almost every way imaginable and dissected the electorate into 11 distinct groups. Then it invented a new vocabulary to label the groups.

Republicans became not just Republicans, but “Enterprisers” and “Moralists,” totaling 16% and 14%, respectively, of all likely voters in the population. Democrats were even more anatomized, splitting into “ ‘60s Democrats” (11%), “New Dealers” (15%), “The Passive Poor” (6%) and “The Partisan Poor” (9%). Independents were subdivided into people who lean toward the Republican Party, “Upbeats” (9%) and “Disaffecteds” (7%); people who lean Democratic, “Followers” (4%) and “Seculars” (9%), and people who do not care who the President is and do not vote, “Bystanders” (0%).

“The conventional way of defining our politics--in terms such as liberal and conservative, Republican, Democrat and independent--bears little relation to the true, diverse nature of the electorate,” Kohut and Ornstein wrote in their survey report.

While the analysts acknowledged that party affiliation--whether people regard themselves as Democrats or Republicans--remains “the single best indicator” of voter attitudes, they noted that “the American political landscape is a mine field of contradictions.”

In fitting voters into 11 groups, the researchers catalogued them not only by political affiliation, but also by “basic values and orientations”--their attitudes relating to religion, tolerance, social justice, anti-communism, nationalism, government, big business, alienation from “the system” and personal financial pressures.

But they advised people to forget about “yuppies,” the young urban professionals who in 1984 were thought to be a vital part of Colorado Sen. Gary Hart’s constituency in the Democratic primaries. “There is no separate, single political type that describes the stereotypical yuppie,” Kohut and Ornstein reported. “The presumed existence of a yuppie vote is shattered by our findings.”

People who fit the yuppie description, they said, basically are spread among four very different groups: ‘60s Democrats and Democrat-leaning Seculars, and Republican Enterprisers and GOP-leaning Upbeats.

54% Democrat

What all 11 groups add up to in the Gallup computer is 54% Democrat, 46% Republican.

“However, this (Democratic) advantage virtually disappears when the Republicans’ higher voter turnout and greater loyalty (to GOP candidates) is taken into account,” the analysts wrote. “Another apparent Republican advantage that (the survey) cannot measure is the Electoral College. It gives an edge in presidential contests to the less-populated states, which are often GOP strongholds. . . .

“(So) in national politics, it is a virtual tossup between the Republicans and the Democrats.”

And regardless of the 1984 Reagan landslide and the so-called “Reagan Revolution,” there is “no evidence of a Republican realignment or an emerging Republican majority,” the analysts said. In fact, they emphasized, the Reagan coalition “could easily crumble.”

The Reagan coalition, the survey showed, consists of the Republican Enterprisers and Moralists--the former drawn by the President’s fiscal conservatism, the latter by his conservative stand on social issues--plus the independent Upbeats, attracted by his “Morning in America” optimism, and the Disaffected pessimists, responding to his anti-elitist appeal.

“Reagan surely earned his ‘Great Communicator’ fame by conveying four distinct appeals to four distinct groups without turning one against the other,” the analysts observed. Any potential GOP majority, they added, will depend on holding this coalition and it “may be very difficult without a Ronald Reagan at the top of the ticket.”

Indeed, there already are signs of erosion within the coalition. Disaffecteds--skeptical by nature, middle-aged, middle income--voted for Reagan by 4 to 1 over Walter F. Mondale. But the sales of U.S. arms to Iran severely damaged the President’s image among this group and many now disapprove of his performance in office, the analysts said. These people also have been highly critical of Reagan’s Central America policy.

On the plus side for Republicans, Reagan’s famous question to voters in 1980--”Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”--continues to benefit the GOP. Almost half the people in this poll said they personally are better off financially than they were five years ago. Only one in five said they were worse off.

However, the ability of Republicans to run on Reagan’s record is weakened by the fact that more than half the people, based on this poll, also think the United States is “less respected by other countries” than it was five years ago. Fewer than one in five said it was more respected.

Unlike some past Republican nominating fights, the 1988 race does not appear to be shaping up as a bloody battle between conservatives and moderates for control of the party. But the GOP is being split somewhat by religion. And the party’s “identification with the social agenda of the Christian right,” the pollsters concluded, may hurt the GOP with such key swing voters as Upbeats and non-religious Seculars.

The cleavage within the GOP over social issues was clearly illustrated by this survey. For example, 77% of Moralists agreed that “books containing dangerous ideas should be banned from public school libraries.” Only 28% of Enterprisers felt that way; 51% of everybody interviewed did.

Other examples of this GOP division:

--”AIDS might be God’s punishment for immoral sexual behavior.” Agreeing were 61% of Moralists, 36% of Enterprisers and 44% of all groups.

--”Women should return to their traditional role in society.” Agreeing were 47% of Moralists, 16% of Enterprisers and 30% of all.

--”Changing laws to make it more difficult to get an abortion.” In favor were 60% of Moralists, 40% of Enterprisers and 41% of all. Interestingly, more women (44%) than men (38%) favored tightening abortion laws.

On the other hand, Enterprisers are more conservative than Moralists when it comes to spending tax dollars for social justice programs. For example, 55% of Moralists agreed that “government should guarantee every citizen enough to eat and a place to sleep.” Only 24% of Enterprisers thought that way, and 62% of everybody did.

“Moralists are not opposed to social spending provided it is not targeted at minorities,” Gallup said. “Enterprisers are much more tolerant in their views, but their fiscal conservatism drives them to oppose nearly all forms of social spending.”

What makes these GOP fractures so significant, the pollsters said, is that because of the Christian evangelical movement, the non-Establishment Moralists are “likely to be equal in strength to the traditional Republican wing, the Enterprisers,” in the 1988 primaries.

“Moralists will clearly dominate the Republican primaries in the South (on Super Tuesday, March 8,) with a commanding 11-percentage-point advantage over the Enterprisers,” the analysts predicted. But in all the primaries outside the South, they said, Enterprisers hold a net 6-point advantage over Moralists among likely GOP voters.

‘Sleeping Giant’

As for white, Protestant evangelicals specifically, they compose only 18% of the total population but make up 25% of all Republicans and GOP leaners, Gallup said.

“Religion plays an important, but surprising, role in American politics, both in its presence and absence in crucial voting blocs,” the analysts said. “But contrary to conventional wisdom, deep religious faith is not simply a phenomenon of the political right. . . . Three solidly Democratic groups --the New Dealers, ‘60s Democrats and Partisan Poor--express deep religious beliefs equal to those of the Moralists. The large number of black evangelicals is a major reason for the depth of religious feeling among these Democratic groups.

“Just as significant,” they continued, “one of the most important voting groups is defined by its lack of religion. Seculars tend to be white, well-educated and middle-aged and are concentrated on both coasts. The greatest failure of the Democratic Party has been its inability to attract the Seculars--a large bloc of voters who look like Democrats, think like Democrats, but remain outside the party. The Seculars have the resources and political sophistication to energize the party and make the difference in a close election. . . . (They) could be an electoral sleeping giant.”

While “the jury is still out on realignment,” the pollsters said, “there is some evidence of a trend in public sentiment toward the GOP.” The biggest bloc of Democratic voters, the New Dealers, is “an aging group that is not being replenished by younger segments of the population.” At the same time, the youngest bloc of voters, the Upbeats, is leaning Republican.

GOP Success

“While the Democratic Party has an advantage among the older generation and baby boomers, the Republican Party has disproportionately captured the political imagination of the younger generation,” the analysts said. The Democrats’ numerical advantage grows with age, tripling from 6 percentage points (including party leaners) for people under 30 to 18 points for those over 60.

“Younger and older generations differ significantly in their political beliefs,” Gallup pointed out. “Americans under 30 years of age are more tolerant, less anti-communist, less religious and more likely to feel financial pressure from older citizens. . . . The young are much less likely to hold negative views toward government or big business. (They) more closely resemble the Republicans on pro-business sentiments but resemble the Democrats on tolerance and a lack of anti-government sentiment.”

Among whites under age 30, men tilt heavily toward the GOP, by 15 percentage points, and women divide about evenly between the two parties.

But black voters of all ages remain overwhelmingly Democratic, Gallup noted, adding: “No amount of economic progress turns black Americans into Republicans. . . . (They) do not desert the Democratic Party as they move up the socioeconomic ladder.”

The one glimmer of hope for Republicans among blacks is that the young are less lopsidedly Democratic than their elders. The ratio of blacks under age 30 who are aligned with the GOP is small, less than one in five, but it nevertheless is 2 1/2 times larger than the ratio for those over 30.

Another conventional wisdom that Gallup said it refuted in this survey was the assumption that a low voter turnout automatically helps Republican candidates and hurts their Democratic opponents. “The issue of turnout is no longer that simple,” the analysts said. While noting that Democrats have a more serious turnout problem, Gallup said: “Republicans have broadened their constituency to include younger and less well-educated groups (and) it will be especially important for the GOP to turn out votes from these groups.”

OPINIONS ON ISSUES

BANNING BOOKS

Agree that books containing dangerous ideas should be banned from public school libraries

51% SCHOOL PRAYER Favor constitutional amendment to permit prayer in public schools

71% AIDS

Agree that AIDS might be God’s punishment for immoral sexual behavior

44% DRUG TESTING

Favor mandatory drug tests for government employees

65% ABORTION

Favor changing laws to make it harder to get abortions

41% RACE

Agree that it’s all right for whites and blacks to date each other

48% NICARAGUA

Favor U.S. assistance to the Contras

26% IMPORTS

Favor an import tax to protect American jobs

75% DEFENSE

Favor “Star Wars”

44% Favor reductions in defense spending

49% ENVIRONMENT

Favor relaxing environmental controls to encourage growth and development

38% FAVOR INCREASED SPENDING ON Programs that assist minorities

36% Programs for the elderly

75% Programs for the homeless

68% Improving nation’s health care

71% Research on AIDS

68% What do you regard as the nation’s most important problem?

Unemployment/recession/depression 13% Federal budget deficit/failure to balance budget 12% Threat of nuclear war 7% Economy 7% Poverty/hunger 6% Drug abuse 6% Arms race 4% Foreign affairs/international problems 3% Crime 3% Trade deficit/trade problems 3% The remaining 36% were divided among other problems. Which political party do you think is better able to handle the nation’s most important problem?

Republican Democrat No difference Don’t know Current 28% 38% 24% 10% July, 1986 33% 36% 21% 10% January, 1985 39% 29% 24% 8%

THE 11 VOTER GROUPS

THE REPUBLICAN CORE Enterprisers

Who they are:

--10% of adult population, 16% of likely electorate.

--An affluent, highly educated group, 99% white, 60% male, mostly married and concentrated in the suburbs.

Life style and attitudes: --Strongly pro-business and anti-government, but remarkably tolerant and moderate on questions of personal freedom. Opposed to further limits on abortion.

--Very likely to belong to a civic or fraternal organization; enjoy classical music.

Moralists Who they are: --11% of adult population, 14% of likely electorate.

--Middle-aged and middle income, with a heavy concentration of Southerners; 94% white, regular church-goers with a high number of “born-again” Christians.

Life style and attitudes: --Hold firm and very conservative views on social and foreign policy; strongly anti-abortion, pro-school prayer, anti-communist; in favor, however, of social spending programs except when targeted to minorities.

--TV watching includes religious programming; low interest in rock music.

THE MIDDLE GROUND Upbeats

Who they are:

--9% of adult population, 9% of likely electorate.

--A young, optimistic group whose members believe strongly in America; middle-income, 94% white; most have little or no college education.

Life style and attitudes: --Generally lean Republican, but are markedly uncritical of government’s role in society.

--Enjoy rock music, romance novels.

Disaffecteds Who they are: --9% of adult population, 7% of likely electorate.

--A middle-aged, middle-income group distinguished by its alienation and pessimism; many members feel significant financial pressure. Many live in Midwest.

Life style and attitudes: --Strongly anti-government and anti-business, but pro-military; lean Republican; strongly opposed to gun control, split on abortion.

--Favor country and Western music; a high percentage are hunters.

Followers Who they are: --7% of adult population, 4% of likely electorate.

--Young, poorly educated, blue-collar; 18% Hispanic, 25% black; concentrated in East and South; little religious commitment.

Life style and attitudes: --Limited political involvement; little faith in United States but surprisingly uncritical of government and business; lean Democratic, but very persuadable and unpredictable.

--Of all the groups, Followers are the least likely to read for pleasure or exercise regularly.

Seculars Who they are: --8% of adult population, 9% of likely electorate.

--This group professes little religious belief; mostly white, well-educated, heavily concentrated on East and West coasts; professional; 11% identify as Jewish.

Life style and attitudes: --Strong commitment to personal freedom; opposed to school prayer, pro-choice on abortion, favor cuts in military spending; Democratic-leaning, but political participation does not match high level of knowledge.

--Nearly one-half regularly attend theater, ballet or classical music concerts. Bystanders Who they are: --11% of adult population, 0% of likely electorate.

--Young, poorly educated and distinguished by an almost total lack of interest in current affairs; a high proportion are unmarried; 82% white, 13% black.

Life style and attitudes: --Non-participants in the democratic process--57% say they do not care who is elected President in 1988; when views are expressed, they tend to be fairly conventional.

--Going to clubs and discos is a favorite activity for many in this group.

THE DEMOCRATIC CORE ‘60s Democrats

Who they are: --8% of adult population, 11% of likely electorate.

--Upper-middle income, 60% female, well-educated, many married and with children; 16% black (most of whom are college-educated).

Life style and attitudes: --Strong commitment to social justice, but a very low militancy level; strong identification with peace, civil rights and environmental movements; high tolerance for views and life styles they do not share.

--Heavy readers, exercise regularly, work with youth groups.

New Dealers Who they are: --11% of adult population, 15% of likely electorate.

--Older (two-thirds over 50), generally blue-collar, with higher than average union membership; moderate income, but feeling little financial pressure.

Life style and attitudes: --Religious; not tolerant of differing views and life styles; in favor of most social spending programs, except when targeted to minorities.

--Heavy TV viewers; prefer country and Western music.

The Passive Poor Who they are: --7% of adult population, 6% of likely electorate.

--An older group, concentrated in South, 31% black; poor, but feeling only moderate financial pressure.

Life style and attitudes: --A solidly Democratic group characterized by a strong faith in America, very supportive of its institutions and leadership. Favors all forms of increased social spending; more supportive of tax increases than any other group.

--Heavy TV viewers.

The Partisan Poor Who they are: --9% of adult population, 9% of likely electorate.

--Very low income and feeling high financial pressure; heavily concentrated in cities and the South; 37% black.

Life style and attitudes: --The most loyal Democratic group, intensely concerned with social justice issues; strongly in favor of increased social spending, but opposed to tax increases; in favor of school prayer, divided on abortion.

--Heavy TV viewers.