The Times Poll : Bush, Dukakis Take Big Leads in N. H. Races

Vice President George Bush and Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis are running well ahead in their New Hampshire primary races, with Democrat Gary Hart fading fast in a state where four years ago he burst into strong presidential contention, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

Republican Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas, however, is the only presidential candidate the state’s voters right now say they would be likely to support in the November general election, the survey showed. None of the other 12 major candidates showed a similar ability to attract votes from outside their respective parties. For each candidate, except Dole, more voters said they were “not inclined” to support him if nominated than were “inclined” to do so.

Focus on Iowa, New Hampshire

But November is a political millennium away for these candidates, who currently are focusing most of their time and resources on the Iowa precinct caucuses Feb. 8 and New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary on Feb. 16.

In many respects, New Hampshire and Iowa are mirror opposites politically: President Reagan is highly regarded in New Hampshire, and his popularity rubs off favorably on Bush. By contrast, Iowa voters are upset with Reagan, and this has hurt his vice president, according to a Times poll published Thursday. Also, since New Hampshire is much more urbanized, there is no farm vote to boost Dole and Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt to the front of the packs, as there is in Iowa.

In The Times’ survey of New Hampshire Republicans, Bush led Dole by 13 points, 35% to 22%, followed closely by New York Rep. Jack Kemp at 18%. Then far back came former Delaware Gov. Pierre S. (Pete) du Pont IV, 8%; former television evangelist Pat Robertson, 8%, and former Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr., 2%. There were 7% undecided.

The Democratic race was more lopsided, with Dukakis holding an 18-point lead over Illinois Sen. Paul Simon, 37% to 19%. Trailing were former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt, 13%; Gephardt, 8%; Hart, 6%; the Rev. Jesse Jackson, 6%, and Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr., 5%. The undecideds totaled 6%.

The Times poll, directed by I. A. Lewis, telephoned a random sample of 2,377 New Hampshire adults for five days ending Thursday night. Lengthy interviews were conducted with the 1,410 people considered likely to vote on Feb. 16. Of these, 675 said they would vote in the Republican contest, 487 planned to participate in the Democratic race and 248 were not sure in which party’s primary to cast a ballot. In New Hampshire, independents can vote in the primary of their choice.

The margin of error for all those interviewed was 3%. For Republicans it was 4% and for Democrats 5%.

This was the first substantive survey of New Hampshire by the Times poll in the 1988 presidential campaign. But polls by other organizations last month, after Hart’s re-entry into the race after angrily bowing out in May amid a sex scandal, showed the former senator in second place with significantly higher support than in this survey, where he was running a distant fifth.

Gallup Finds Hart Second

A New Hampshire survey by the Gallup Organization taken roughly 10 days before the Times poll found Hart in second place with 19%, seven points in front of Simon.

New Hampshire was where Hart in 1984 established himself as the principal challenger to Walter F. Mondale, upsetting the eventual Democratic nominee by nine points. But now, according to The Times survey, nearly two-thirds of the Democrats say they would “not be inclined” to vote for Hart even if he were the Democratic nominee in November.

And of Hart’s supporters, two-thirds said they would vote for him on Feb. 16 “just for the heck of it,” an indication of a weak commitment.

Hart has been critical of the news media’s coverage of his candidacy. And New Hampshire’s voters are about evenly divided between those who believe he has been treated fairly and those who think the media have “made him look worse than he is.” But even among Democrats who think Hart has gotten a raw deal from news coverage, Dukakis is favored over him by 20 points.

Hart has been trying to sell himself as the candidate with “the power of ideas.” But New Hampshire voters apparently are not buying the message. When Hart’s supporters were asked to pick a phrase that “best describes” their candidate, “new ideas” rated a distant fourth, far behind the top selection: “He stands up for his convictions.”

Young Voters Prefer Dukakis

Also, although Hart became the candidate of the younger generation in 1984, New Hampshire’s young voters this time greatly prefer Dukakis. Among voters under age 45, Dukakis leads Hart by 34 points.

Dukakis, a three-term governor from a neighboring New England state, is a familiar figure to New Hampshire voters and always has been heavily favored to win the primary there. Anything short of a comfortable victory would be regarded as a setback, and a loss could be fatal to his presidential prospects.

But assuming another candidate wins Iowa--where Dukakis currently is running in the middle of the pack--the New Hampshire front-runner still must be tested by the momentum certain to be generated by the victor of the Hawkeye state. Gephardt and Simon are the current Iowa leaders, running virtually neck-and-neck, according to The Times’ survey of the state.

When asked to describe Dukakis, the phrase his New Hampshire supporters chose mostly was “leadership.” For Simon, his partisans thought mainly of “honesty.” Babbitt was seen especially as a man of “convictions.”

On the Republican side, the Bush faithful overwhelmingly cited his “experience.” Dole’s strength was “leadership.” Kemp’s was “honesty” and “he speaks to the issues.”

Bush is in a position somewhat similar to Dukakis: Given his New England roots--he was born, reared and educated in Connecticut as the son of a wealthy U.S. senator--anything short of a convincing New Hampshire victory would be regarded as a political stumble. Unlike Dukakis, however, the vice president is in a better position because of his years of national standing to sustain a loss and recoup elsewhere.

Reagan Best Bush Asset

Besides familiarity, what Bush has going for him in New Hampshire is Reagan. Voters approve of the way Reagan “is handling his job as President” by a ratio of 3 to 2. And New Hampshire, a boom state, also approves of the President’s “handling of the nation’s economy,” by 5 to 4.

Republicans who approve of Reagan’s job performance--and nearly 8 in 10 do--support Bush over Dole by 24 points. But Republicans disenchanted with the President back Dole by 11 points over Bush.

But, as in Iowa, Bush is being hurt in New Hampshire by accusations--fanned by opponents--that his role in the Iran-Contra scandal was more prominent than he has admitted. One-fifth of New Hampshire’s Republicans believe he “is telling the whole truth.” About a third theorize he is telling some truth, though not all of it. But more than a quarter think he is lying, and they vote for Dole by 18 points over Bush.

Kemp also is facing a political crossroads in New Hampshire. Because he is a congressman from Upstate New York, this is regarded as his territory--and his conservative constituency. A loss here would be difficult to overcome in future primaries. But Kemp in this survey was not receiving a significant boost from fellow conservatives.