Calif. Emergency Council OKs Quake Response Plan

Anticipating that scientists will eventually be able to predict major temblors within weeks or even hours, the California Emergency Council on Wednesday approved a plan spelling out how the state will respond when earthquakes are expected.

“We believe this is the most comprehensive emergency earthquake response plan for an area the complexity of California anywhere in the world,” said Richard Andrews, assistant director of the state Office of Emergency Services.

Under the plan, OES will notify local and state agencies first by telephone and radio of all earthquake predictions deemed valid by the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, an appointed scientific advisory panel. Next, the media will be informed.

Three-Tier System

The agency will use a three-tier warning system based on a combination of the quake’s likelihood and its anticipated impact. A temblor given a less than 10% chance of occurring and expected to do minimal damage will receive a first-level alert; one given prospects of 50% or greater with loss of life and widespread destruction probably will prompt a third-level advisory.

In addition to public notification, a first-level warning would cause the state to urge that power generators be checked, rumor-control hot lines set up and local agencies’ emergency plans reviewed. A third-level advisory would also call for closing potentially unsafe buildings, mobilizing emergency fire and rescue personnel and possibly declaring a state of emergency, among other things.

Scientists currently are able to make only long-term predictions--such as that “the Big One” will hit Southern California in the next 30 years. But Andrews said the response plan will position the state “to deal with a rapidly emerging scientific technology.”

He pointed to state-supported research being done by the U.S. Geological Survey to monitor the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield in Central California in an attempt to pinpoint early earthquake warning signs.

Once Every 22 Years

For more than a century, the fault has ruptured in lightly populated Parkfield with an earthquake of 5.5 to 6 magnitude on the Richter scale once about every 22 years. The most recent quake was in 1966, so another is expected.

Also, Andrews said, it already is possible that an initial tremor anywhere in the state could act as a “foreshock,” signaling a more powerful quake in its aftermath.

The California Emergency Council advises the governor on emergency preparedness statewide and helps OES determine the state’s disaster response policy. The 10-member panel includes the governor, lieutenant governor, state legislators and representatives from local fire and sheriff’s departments and city and county government and the Red Cross.

A 1985 bill directed the state to support the Parkfield study and OES to complete a short-term earthquake prediction response plan.