Liberals Aided by Structure of Super Tuesday

The massive structure of the Super Tuesday contests here in the South is working to the advantage of the two Democrats considered the most liberal of the party’s major presidential candidates and thus least likely to carry Dixie in the November election--Gov. Michael S. Dukakis and the Rev. Jesse Jackson.

This paradoxical conclusion emerges from an assessment of the strategic blueprints of the candidates and interviews with party leaders gathered here, many of whom had counted on Super Tuesday to boost the chances of moderate to conservative candidates for the Democratic nomination.

Dramatic Spectacle

As Super Tuesday’s sponsors had envisaged it, the dramatic spectacle of 14 Southern and Border states’ balloting for President on the same day would generate a wave of political enthusiasm in the region. This would draw to the polls a broader spectrum of citizens more representative of those who vote in November than the relatively liberal electorate that has dominated most Southern Democratic presidential contests in the past.

But as it is turning out, the size of Super Tuesday, combined with the limited window of time allowed for campaigning, seems to be working the other way. It is making it harder for the centrist candidates--Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt and Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr.--to reach middle-of-the-road voters and get them to the polls on Tuesday. They are not only competing against each other for this support, but also against the Republican candidates, since in eight Southern states voters can participate in either party primary.

By contrast, Dukakis from liberal Massachusetts, with his substantial financial and organizational resources, is better able to cope with the magnitude of the Super Tuesday challenge. And on the eve of the vote, he seems well-positioned to carry both Texas and Florida, the two biggest prizes in the Southern delegate bag.

This would mean “a giant step” toward the nomination, says Mark Siegel, a member of the Democratic Party’s executive committee from Maryland who is neutral in the current campaign. But this accomplishment would still leave many misgivings among Southern Democrats about Dukakis’ ability to appeal to middle-of-the road Southerners in November.

As for Jackson, because Super Tuesday conditions accentuate the importance of his built-in base among black Democrats, who make up nearly 25% of the Southern Democratic electorate, it is generally assumed that he will win enough votes and delegates on Tuesday to assure that he will be a formidable and potentially divisive presence throughout the remainder of the Democratic competition for the nomination.

Pleasing Southern Tastes

To be sure, given the volatility of the electorate, many party professionals believe it is possible for the two candidates considered more likely to please Southern tastes in the fall--Gephardt, with his aggressive message on trade, and Gore, the only white Southerner in the race--to achieve a measure of success here.

Meanwhile, though, these two seem handicapped by the makeup of the Super Tuesday mega-contest, which was designed to boost the prospects of candidates like themselves.

“It’s a disaster,” said William Carrick, Gephardt campaign manager, of the design of Super Tuesday.

An arc roughly encompassing the Super Tuesday battlefield, anchored on the south at Key West, would stretch north to Baltimore, swing west to Kansas City and then southwest to El Paso. This sprawling heterogeneous area encompasses 140 congressional districts and nearly 70 million Americans, roughly 30% of the national population. (In addition to those in the South, contests are also taking place in six Northern and Western states.)

“They created a monster, which no candidate can control,” says Larry Sabato, University of Virginia political scientist.

Former Virginia Gov. Charles S. Robb, one of the driving forces behind Super Tuesday, last week summed up the critical importance of the contest for the party’s chances in November in an address here to a meeting of Democratic leaders convened to help stir up interest in Tuesday’s vote.

“Why is Super Tuesday so important?” Robb asked. “Because Democrats can’t win the White House without winning the South--it’s that simple.”

Apathy and Confusion

But later, Robb tacitly acknowledged the cloud of apathy and confusion hanging over the Super Tuesday enterprise. Asked by a reporter to guess which candidate would come out ahead Tuesday in Robb’s own state, he responded: “Unenthusiastic.”

In their desperation to get through to the voters, all three major white candidates have turned to attacking each other with television commercials at a level of intensity exceeding any presidential campaign in memory. “They realize they have to move people in a hurry and this is the quickest way to do it,” Sabato said.

But the likely result of this negativism, many analysts believe, will be to further discourage overall voter turnout, which Sabato predicts will be “abysmal.” Here is a glimpse at the strategies and prospects of the four major Democratic candidates: (Of the two other candidates, Illinois Sen. Paul Simon has not actively campaigned in the South and former Colorado Sen. Gary Hart has had little impact since his return to the race in December.)

--Dukakis. For the Massachusetts governor, money represents the underlying advantage of his candidacy, one that has worked in his favor throughout the campaign. It has allowed Dukakis to organize and plan his advertising budgets while his chief rival Gephardt has had to operate from hand to mouth.

Dukakis’ Fund Raising

Dukakis’ campaign raised $13 million through the end of February, about twice as much as Gephardt, and according to party sources will spend more than twice as much as Gephardt on Super Tuesday television advertising. This has permitted him not only to promote his own merits but to unleash a fierce media attack on Gephardt, which the Missourian’s aides complain is hurting their candidate’s prospects.

Dukakis has two objectives on Super Tuesday. The first is to win more of the 1,307 pledged delegates at stake in the Super Tuesday contests.

The second goal is to win the two biggest states in the South--Florida and Texas. Florida, with its sizable population of former Yankees, is a relatively easy mark. Texas is considered much tougher because Gephardt is a serious threat there, but Gephardt aides conceded Sunday that Dukakis was leading in that state.

Dukakis’ hopes rest with the state’s Mexican-American citizens, whom he has diligently wooed with speeches in their mother tongue, recalling the so-called economic miracle he achieved in Massachusetts and warning about Gephardt’s tough trade policies. “Trade wars are like nuclear wars,” Dukakis says. “They have no victors.”

Could Encounter Trouble

But Dukakis could run into trouble if he fails to win Texas or any other Southern state but Florida, with its quasi-Northern character. He would then have a hard time convincing some Democrats that he can fulfill Robb’s injunction that a Democratic nominee must carry the South in order to win the White House in November.

Sabato of the University of Virginia believes Dukakis would have serious trouble in the South in the general election because of his image as “a Northern liberal ethnic” and “because of all the liberal measures he had to support in that People’s Republic of Massachusetts.”

And last week, the Republican front-runner, Vice President George Bush, expecting that Dukakis will be the likely Democratic standard-bearer, began zeroing in on Dukakis for not being tough enough on defense. Saying that Dukakis had advocated the elimination of two Navy aircraft carrier battle groups, Bush called it “a dumb idea.”

--Jackson. It is already clear that Jackson will do much better on Super Tuesday in the South than he did in 1984 when he had to compete against Walter F. Mondale for black votes. But the question is how much better.

Campaign manager Jerry Austin says all Jackson hopes for is to be among the three surviving candidates--Austin expects that Dukakis and Gore will be the other two--on Wednesday. But privately, aides acknowledge that a third-place finish would be “very disappointing.” They say that if Jackson gets about 10% of the white vote, he might emerge with a plurality of Southern delegates on Super Tuesday, enough to make him the front-runner or at least Dukakis’ chief rival.

Says He Can Win

Jackson himself tells audiences he can win on Super Tuesday--but bristles when he is asked how much white support he expects to get. Like his white rivals, Jackson is focusing on congressional districts--mostly in Texas, Georgia, North Carolina and Florida--where delegates are elected rather than on overall state battlegrounds. He has targeted at least three-fourths of the 140 districts in the South and, according to Steve Cobble, his chief delegate hunter, has high hopes in about two-thirds of these.

With a lower ad budget than any of his rivals--about $100,000 for television--Jackson is targeting only small markets (the biggest is Birmingham, Ala.), most in the Deep South and Texas. In the South, as elsewhere, Jackson appeals to the dispossessed and those sympathetic to them, striking a populist chord as he claims to stand for “we the people” and against the multinational corporations he says are depriving them of economic justice.

But some conservative Democrats, such as Ben Wattenberg, founder of the Coalition for a Democratic Majority, argue that it is Jackson’s liberal message on domestic and foreign policy, rather than his race, that could hurt his party with moderate voters in the South and elsewhere in November, if Jackson appears to be a major player at the nominating convention. Wattenberg is particularly critical of Jackson’s past favorable comments about Fidel Castro and Cuban revolutionary Che Guevara, and other critics cite Jackson’s advocacy of cuts in defense spending.

--Gephardt. As has happened before in this campaign, Gephardt appears to have his back against the wall. With his demand for an oil import fee and for retaliation against unfair trade practices, Gephardt seems to be running strongest in the economically stricken “oil patch” states, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Louisiana.

Being Pressed by Gore

But he is being pressed hard in these states by Gore and gaining delegates in these contests may not be enough to sustain his candidacy for very long after Super Tuesday if he cannot show strength elsewhere. Florida, Alabama and Georgia are considered possibilities by his strategists but the most critical battleground for Gephardt appears to be Texas, where polls show him trailing Dukakis.

In the Lone Star state, Gephardt can count on help from 10 Democratic congressmen, among 35 who have endorsed him in Super Tuesday Southern states.

No one doubts that the potential for Gephardt is there in Texas, as it is elsewhere in the South, particularly on the trade issue. In a recent Dallas Morning News-Houston Chronicle poll, more than 60% of those interviewed said they favored tougher trade laws by the United States--even if it meant raising prices on consumer goods. But the problem for Gephardt is attracting the support of blue-collar and middle-class voters who don’t often participate in Democratic presidential primaries, a task made tougher in the face of the blizzard of negative commercials that Dukakis and Gore are trying to bury him with.

Gephardt was the target of heavy negative advertising in New Hampshire unleashed by Illinois Sen. Simon and withstood it, finishing second to Dukakis and ahead of Simon there. But this attack could be more damaging, his advisers worry.

‘A Negative Cross-Fire’

“We’re caught in a negative cross-fire,” said one aide who is also concerned that “there hasn’t been the time for voters to form a positive impression of Gephardt.”

The response of the Gephardt campaign has been negative commercials of its own--aimed both at front-runner Dukakis and Gore, who is considered Gephardt’s chief rival for conservative blue-collar Southerners. “We want to create a new four-syllable word--’Gore-Dukakis,’ ” ad writer Robert Shrum argued at a strategy meeting. The idea is to sharpen the definition of Gephardt by separating him from both of his two white rivals.

--Gore. Evidently seduced by the prospective windfall of delegates in his native region, the Tennessee senator withdrew from Iowa and made only a half-hearted effort in New Hampshire.

But by the time Gore got ready to make his move in the Super Tuesday contests, some professionals concluded that he had waited too long to make a first impression on the Southern electorate. And for him, as for Gephardt, the sprawling battleground of Super Tuesday in the South has made it hard to establish a clear identity among his potential supporters.

At first Gore’s message was bland, stressing his Southernness, and his commercials “sounded like he was running for governor,” gibed Southern pollster Claibourne Darden. Debating his rivals, Gore “looked plastic” to Darden, who said: “You might buy a new car from him, but not a used car.”

Sharpened His Message

In the closing days of the campaign, though, Gore sharpened his message and pointed it directly at Gephardt, his chief competitor for middle-of-the-road votes. “What we’re trying to do is make sure only one of the ‘G candidates’ goes North,” one Gore adviser said. “And it’s going to be us, not him.”

Toward that end, Gore has been running commercials depicting himself as a far better friend to working people than Gephardt, and attacking Gephardt’s alleged “flip-flops” on issues. The anti-Gephardt drive is focusing in the districts in Texas that Gephardt is counting on to carry the state against Dukakis.

Meanwhile, private polls indicate that Gore seems to be gaining on Gephardt in Oklahoma and Arkansas, and could finish first in both states. He is of course expected to carry his home state, and probably neighboring Kentucky. And Gore is being helped by endorsements in North Carolina and Virginia, where Robb is backing him.

But it still remains questionable whether he can do well enough among the middle- to lower-income voters to finish ahead of Gephardt.

Staff writers Bob Drogin, Douglas Jehl, Keith Love and James Risen contributed to this story.

SUPER TUESDAY: Delegates at stake March 8

Democrats Republicans Delegates at stake March 8 1,307 712 Total convention delegates 4,162 2,277 Needed to nominate 2,082 1,139

CALCULATING THE DELEGATES Here is a state-by-state breakdown of how the delegates will be calculated from Super Tuesday’s primaries and caucuses. Alabama. Democrats: 37 delegates will be elected by congressional district, listed on the ballot along with the presidential candidate they support; 19 at-large delegates will be allocated in proportion to the statewide primary results. Republicans: winning candidate in each of the seven congressional districts gets three delegates; 17 at-large delegates go to the statewide winner. Delegates at stake Tuesday: 56 Democrats, 38 Republicans. American Samoa. Democrats caucus to pick six people who will each cast one-half vote at the national convention. The Republicans do not provide for a delegation from American Samoa. Tuesday total: 3 Democrats, 0 Republicans. Arkansas. For both parties, delegates will be awarded in proportion to the primary vote. Tuesday total: 38 Democrats, 27 Republicans. Florida. Democrats: In each congressional district, the candidate with the most votes in the primary gets one delegate as a bonus, while the remaining delegates are divided in proportion to the vote. An additional 47 at-large delegates will be awarded in proportion to the statewide vote. Republicans: Winner in each congressional district gets all of the delegates from that district, and the winner statewide receives all 18 at-large delegates. Tuesday total: 136 Democrats, 82 Republicans. Georgia. Similar to Florida procedures for both parties. Tuesday total: 77 Democrats, 48 Republicans. Hawaii. Democrats: Precinct caucuses elect delegates to the state convention. National convention delegates will eventually be allocated in proportion to preference of caucus participants. (Republicans held precinct caucuses last month.) Tuesday total: 20 Democrats, 0 Republicans. Idaho. Democrats: Precinct caucuses, similar to Hawaiian system. (Republicans hold a primary May 24.) Tuesday total: 18 Democrats, 0 Republicans. Kentucky. Both parties: Delegates awarded in proportion to the results of the primary. Tuesday total: 55 Democrats, 38 Republicans. Louisiana. Democrats: Proportional allocation. Republicans: 24 delegates awarded winner-take-all in each of eight congressional districts; 17 additional delegates awarded in proportion to primary results. Tuesday total: 63 Democrats, 41 Republicans. Maryland. Democrats: Select 44 delegates, listed on the ballot along with presidential preference, by congressional districts; 23 additional delegates awarded in proportion to the statewide primary results. Republicans: Winner-take-all system similar to Florida GOP’s. Tuesday total: 67Democrats, 41 Republicans. Massachusetts. Democrats: Similar to Florida system. Republicans: Proportional allocation. Tuesday total: 98 Democrats, 52 Republicans. Mississippi. Democrats: Proportional allocation. Republicans: 16 at-large delegates awarded in proportion to statewide vote; 3 delegates from each congressional districts awarded to winner in that district. Tuesday total: 40 Democrats, 31 Republicans. Missouri. Democrats follow the Florida system. GOP delegates awarded in proportion to the results of the primary. Tuesday total: 77 Democrats, 47 Republicans. Nevada. Democrats: Precinct caucuses begin a three-tier process to pick national convention delegates. Participants at each level of the process are required to declare whom they support for president, and this will govern how the national convention delegates are allocated. (Republican caucuses were held last month.) Tuesday total: 16 Democrats, 0 Republicans. North Carolina. Democrats follow the Florida system. Republican delegates awarded in proportion to the primary vote. Tuesday total: 82 Democrats, 54 Republicans. Oklahoma. Democrats: Proportional allocation. Republicans: Winner-take-all system similar to Florida’s. Tuesday total: 46 Democrats, 36 Republicans. Rhode Island. Both parties: Proportional allocation. Tuesday total: 22 Democrats, 21 Republicans. Tennessee. Democrats: Proportional allocation. Republicans: Elect 33 delegates directly from the ballot by congressional district and award 12 others in proportion to statewide vote. Tuesday total: 70 Democrats, 45 Republicans. Texas. Democrats: 119 delegates allocated in proportion to primary results in each congressional district; 64 additional statewide delegates will be picked the same day in precinct caucuses after polls close, and awarded to proportionally based on the preferences of caucus participants. Republicans: Winner-take-all system similar to Florida GOP. Tuesday total: 183 Democrats, 111 Republicans. Virginia. Democrats: Proportional allocation. Republicans: “Beauty contest” has no bearing on delegate allocation; delegates will be chosen later through a system of caucuses and conventions. Tuesday total: 75 Democrats, 0 Republicans. Washington. Democrats: Precinct caucuses follow procedures similar to Nevada’s. Republican caucuses will hold a non-binding straw poll with no direct bearing on delegate allocation. Tuesday total: 65 Democrats, 0 Republicans.