ORANGE COUNTY ELECTIONS : Green-Knabe Fight in 33rd District Likely to Be Most Costly State Race

Democrat Cecil N. Green’s bid to retain his 33rd District seat in the state Senate is expected to be the most costly and competitive legislative race in Orange County this year, political analysts said Friday as the filing deadline for legislative races passed.

Green, of Norwalk, is expected to spend as much as $1 million to retain his seat. His Republican opponent, Cerritos City Councilman Don Knabe, says he needs $750,000 for his campaign.

Last May, $2.99 million was spent in the special election in which Green defeated Assemblyman Wayne Grisham (R-Norwalk) for the seat in the 33rd District which straddles both Orange and Los Angeles counties. That was a record amount for a California legislative race.

Intraparty Race

The most bitter intraparty legislative race in Orange County this year pits Newport Beach Mayor Pro Tem Evelyn R. Hart against incumbent Assemblyman Gil Ferguson (R-Newport Beach) in the June Republican primary for the 70th District.

And political analysts expect Democrat Christian F. (Rick) Thierbach to run a spirited campaign to unseat incumbent Assemblyman Richard E. Longshore (R-Santa Ana) in the 72nd District, the Orange County legislative district with the most registered Democratic voters.

The four other state Senate incumbents in the county are not expected to face serious challenges, veteran political consultants Eileen Padberg and Harvey Englander said. The same holds true for the county’s six other state Assembly districts, they said.

In the 33rd Senate District, Knabe, 44, chief deputy to Los Angeles County Supervisor Deane Dana, said Friday that he feels “very good” about his chances of winning.

$1 Million Estimate

But he acknowledged that he has raised “just a small portion” of the $750,000 he says will be needed to run a successful race.

Spokesmen for Green would not say how much he plans to spend. But Englander said he believes that, if Knabe spends $750,000, Green will have to spend about $1 million to retain his seat.

Englander said the district is considered a “swing” district because in recent years it has tended to support Republican candidates, although voter registration is 54% Democratic and 38% Republican.

Although the filing deadline was Friday, the contest between Assembly incumbent Ferguson and challenger Hart for the Republican nomination in the June primary has actually been going on for about a month.

Denies Threats Made

Hart is bucking Orange County’s Republican leadership to challenge Ferguson. There have been charges, which Ferguson denied Friday, that his supporters threatened Hart with a recall effort.

Hart said she stands a good chance of unseating Ferguson but acknowledged that she has raised just $10,000 of the $125,000 she says she will need to run a successful race.

Ferguson said he will spend $200,000, and he insisted that Hart would have to raise $500,000 just to win “name identification” in the district.

Orange County Republican Party Chairman Thomas A. Fuentes, who is opposed to Hart’s candidacy, discounted her prospects, saying, “At this time, it doesn’t look like she will be a major contender. From all that I can detect, she has an unfunded campaign.”

Republicans Outnumbered

In the central Orange County Assembly district represented by Longshore, the Democrats have an edge in voter registration, outnumbering Republicans 50% to 40%.

Democratic challenger Thierbach, a 38-year-old Riverside County senior deputy district attorney who lives in Anaheim, said: “This district traditionally has been represented by Democrats, and so I believe my chances are excellent.”

He estimated that it will cost him as much as $500,000 to unseat Longshore. He said Democratic legislative leaders in Sacramento “have expressed their interest in the race and have said they will help me financially.” But he said they have not committed themselves to a particular amount.