Momentum Not Always Needed in NCAA Play

The cliche that winning breeds winning gets another test when the NCAA tournament opens March 17.

Almost half of the 64-team field will enter the championship chase already holding a tournament title, albeit a lesser one. Conference champions get 30 of the 64 spots, and 27 of those 30 go to teams coming off a victory in a league tournament.

The question on the floor is whether winning one tournament helps in the next one. Is momentum real, or a fleeting fancy? The answer depends on who is asked.

“I think you go in (to NCAA play) more fired up when you don’t win the league tournament, especially when you’ve got a real good team,” said Auburn Coach Sonny Smith. “After we won the SEC (Southeastern Conference) in 1985, everything else seemed secondary. I figured we wouldn’t last long. But it went just the opposite.”

Auburn won two NCAA games and made it to the round of 16 in 1985. A year later, with a more experienced and talented team that had lost in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament, the Tigers went one round further to the final 8 of the NCAA.

Jim Valvano of North Carolina State has seen his team react in opposite ways. After winning the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament in 1983, the Wolfpack never stopped and won the national championship. Last season, however, the Wolfpack came off an ACC championship only to be bounced from the NCAA playoffs in its first game.

“In ‘83, our team felt like it still had a lot to prove,” said Valvano. “Last season, we were satisfied with the ACC title and we played like it. In ‘83, we had a good team that had adversity during the season. Then we got healthy and got on a roll.”

The ACC has a long history in this debate because it has held a conference tournament since its inaugural year, 1954.

North Carolina’s history is most pertinent. The Tar Heels have advanced to the Final Four seven times over the last 20 years but only in a season when they also won the ACC tournament. They haven’t done either since 1982.

North Carolina Coach Dean Smith dismisses the statistic as coincidence, but it has remained a constant in the Tar Heels’ records. North Carolina followers, if not Smith, look upon the ACC tournament as an omen for their favorite team.

Other leagues, with far less tournament tradition, are only beginning to see the effects of conference playoffs on NCAA success. The evidence is mixed.

Georgetown won last year’s Big East tournament, knocking off Providence and Syracuse along the way. In the NCAA tournament, however, Syracuse and Providence made the Final Four, leaving Georgetown behind.

The last two SEC tournaments winners, Kentucky and Alabama, did well in NCAA play, going to the quarterfinals and round of 16 respectively. But in both seasons, LSU went one round further after being eliminated in the SEC tournament by the eventual winner.

Wyoming tied for third last season in the Western Athletic Conference. The Cowboys then won the league tournament and two games in the NCAA playoffs. Texas-El Paso and Brigham Young, both of which finished above Wyoming in the WAC’s regular season, didn’t last as long as the Cowboys in NCAA play.

Of course, there are other variables to consider. Talent often wins out. It did for Georgetown in ’84 and ’85 and for Houston in ’83 and ’84. Those teams won their league tournaments and also reached in the Final Four, thanks mostly to stars Patrick Ewing and Akeem Olajuwon.

And, sometimes the odds catch up to teams. That was the case for Kentucky in 1986. The Wildcats swept Alabama and LSU in home-and-home games, then beat each again in winning the SEC tournament.

But the NCAA pairings dealt Kentucky a bad hand. The Wildcats had to take on Alabama and LSU for a fourth time each. Kentucky again got by Alabama, but then lost a fourth meeting with LSU by two points.

Perhaps, as Valvano suggests, the best answer lies in the draw.

“The best thing you can do is draw a team named after a state,” Valvano once said. “Everybody has heard of them, your kids get up to play, it’s no shame if you lose.

“What you don’t want is to draw a team with a hyphen in its name. Those are the ones you can’t win.”