‘Survival Issue’ Faces Obstacles : Loss of Ozone Calls for Speedy Action, Experts Say

For perhaps the first time in the long and fractious dispute about the threat posed by man-made chlorofluorocarbons, researchers, government officials and manufacturers of the chemicals now agree that speedy corrective action is necessary to stop the destruction of the Earth’s protective ozone layer.

A definitive new report showing that the ozone layer is being destroyed at a much faster rate than previously believed, combined with the earlier discovery of a springtime “hole” in the ozone layer over the Antarctic, gives urgency to the search for ways to protect the ozone layer.

But researchers and government officials face serious scientific, political and economic obstacles, and experts from around the world interviewed in recent days said it will take at least a decade to produce any significant change in the situation.

Scientists are trying to develop chemical alternatives to the chlorofluorocarbons, commonly known as CFCs, and political figures are pressing for ratification of an international agreement to limit their use. Meanwhile, there is little the average person can do except use a little more sunblock when going outdoors.

An international team of researchers led by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration reported last Tuesday that the ozone layer, which shields life on Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation, has been depleted by an average of about 2.3% since 1969 over most of the United States and by as much as 5% over the South Pole.

The observed ozone loss is at least twice as large as scientists had predicted and the report left little doubt that the cause is the continued release of synthetic chemicals called chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs.

“It is a survival issue in a global sense. We have no method that we know of today that can restore a destroyed ozone layer,” Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland of Norway, who heads the United Nations World Commission on Environment and Development, said in a telephone interview.

In September, 46 nations agreed to the so-called Montreal Protocol, which calls for a 50% reduction in emissions of CFCs by the end of the century.

Call for Renegotiations

So far, only Mexico has ratified the protocol, although the U.S. Senate approved it 83 to 0 last Monday and President Reagan is expected to sign it this week. But already many scientists and environmentalist are arguing that the protocol’s restrictions are not severe enough and have begun to call for its renegotiation.

Chemical companies are also working to develop suitable replacements for the CFCs, but they are so firmly entrenched in the U.S. and world economies, experts say, that it will be several decades before their use can be completely halted.

The CFCs, which consist of one or two carbon atoms surrounded by chlorine and fluorine atoms, are prized because they are not flammable, do not react with other chemicals, are not eaten by microorganisms and are nontoxic.

Several Uses

Combined with their light weight, these properties make them ideal for use as refrigerants in refrigerators and air conditioners, as a blowing agent for producing plastic insulating foams and as a solvent for cleaning electronic components. More than 2.1 billion pounds were used worldwide last year.

In the United States alone, CFCs are used by more than 5,000 businesses at 375,000 locations to produce goods and services worth more than $28 billion a year.

But their inertness also makes the CFCs dangerous. When they leak into the atmosphere from auto air conditioners or abandoned refrigerators, they migrate over a 15- to 30-year period to the stratosphere, that region of the atmosphere extending from 9 miles to 30 miles above the Earth’s surface.

The stratosphere is also the home of the ozone layer, which absorbs more than 99% of the damaging ultraviolet light emitted by the sun.

Ultraviolet Light

When CFCs reach the stratosphere, sunlight splits off highly reactive chlorine atoms, which in turn destroy millions of ozone molecules, allowing more ultraviolet light to reach the Earth’s surface.

Researchers believe that every 1% decrease in ozone in the stratosphere will lead to a 5% to 6% increase in skin cancers. Increased ultraviolet light can also kill off plankton on the ocean’s surface that serve as a food source for other marine life and can decrease the yield of agricultural crops by giving them the equivalent of a sunburn.

One way companies hope to meet the reductions called for in the Montreal Protocol is by developing ways to recycle the CFCs in abandoned cars and refrigerators. They are also attempting to replace them by using completely different materials or by chemically modifying them to reduce their potential for damage.

Organic Solvent

In January, American Telephone and Telegraph Co. and Petrofirm Inc. of Fernandina, Fla., announced that they had developed an organic solvent that could replace CFCs used for cleaning solder resin from electronic components.

AT&T; uses 3 million pounds of CFCs for that purpose every year, and a spokeswoman said that the new solvent, called Bioact EC-7, would replace 20% to 30% of that within two years. AT&T; hopes to use larger amounts of Bioact EC-7 in the future. The material is also being sold to 10 smaller companies.

But CFC manufacturers and other electronic companies have not embraced the new material because all the cleaning equipment would have to be redesigned before it can be used. Among other problems, the new solvent dissolves rubber and plastic seals. It also is flammable.

Less Expensive in Long Run

But, engineer John Fisher of AT&T; said, Bioact EC-7 costs about the same as CFCs and lasts much longer, so it should be less expensive in the long run.

Most companies, however, are trying to modify CFCs by using less chlorine and more fluorine in them, or by replacing at least one of the chlorine or fluorine atoms with hydrogen. The first approach means that less ozone-destroying chlorine will be released into the stratosphere when the chemicals break down. The second approach allows the replacements to be broken down before they reach the stratosphere.

Both developments would ease the impact on the ozone layer.

The problem with these materials is that they have different physical properties than the CFCs now in use, so air conditioners and refrigerators would have to be redesigned to use them.

They are also more expensive. The CFCs now used cost from 50 cents to 69 cents per pound, while the alternatives would sell for $1.50 per pound or more.

‘No Martyrs in This Business’

In a $700 refrigerator or a $500 auto air conditioner, the increased costs would be minimal, about $15. But CFCs represent 25% to 40% of the cost of insulating foams. “There are going to be no martyrs in this business willing to pay double,” said Peter Miller, manager of CFCs for the Pennwalt Corp. in Philadelphia.

Others noted that the cost of CFCs is certain to rise as a result of the Montreal Protocol, making the alternatives more competitive.

But the biggest impediment to the chemical alternatives is the time required to test their potential toxicity. In December, E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co. of Wilmington, Del., organized a consortium of 14 CFC producers in 10 countries to speed up testing of the two most-promising alternatives.

That testing will cost $6 million to $8 million and require five years, Du Pont spokeswoman Kathy Forte said. But the company is so confident that the materials will be found safe that it will have a plant to produce them completed by 1992, a year before the testing will be finished.

Meanwhile, in the view of many, the new findings are dramatic evidence of the pressing need to promptly ratify the Montreal Protocol. Under that accord’s terms, CFC production would be rolled back to 1986 levels beginning in 1990, then reduced an additional 20% by 1995 and another 30% by 1999. The protocol allows exceptions for increased use of CFCs in developing countries and for completion of two CFC production plants already under construction in the Soviet Union.

The treaty is scheduled to take effect next January if 11 nations representing at least two-thirds of the global production of the chemicals ratify it in 1988.

“The key thing is to move forward as quickly as possible with the ratification of the protocol,” said Lee M. Thomas, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency administrator. “If nothing else, this new study has provided more evidence than ever that the protocol is necessary.”

Montreal Protocol

The Montreal Protocol marks the second time that political action has been initiated to reduce the risk from CFCs. In 1978, scientists and environmentalists persuaded Congress to ban the use of CFCs in aerosol spray cans. But the United States has had little success in getting other countries to go along with that ban.

Yet, the new findings raise nagging doubts as to whether the Montreal treaty goes far enough.

The treaty’s schedule for reducing CFC production was based on a sobering but far less alarming assessment of the extent of ozone depletion made in 1985, they said.

“I think one could say that this is not sufficient,” Norwegian Prime Minister Brundtland said.

“If this set of facts had been on the table during negotiations, the nations would have agreed on a phase-out,” said Rafe Pomerance of the World Resources Institute, a Washington-based environmental organization. “I think the Montreal Protocol will have to be strengthened and will have to be strengthened soon.”

Widespread Agreement

As a practical matter, the exceptions in the protocol will mean reductions of no greater than 35% or 40% by 1999, said David Doniger, a senior staff attorney for the Natural Resources Defense Council.

Despite admitted concerns about the treaty’s possible shortcomings, there is widespread agreement among political figures that any attempt to rewrite its provisions now could jeopardize the support of countries still on the fence. “I don’t think it would be advisable to begin tinkering with the protocol before it is ratified,” said Peter Usher, a scientist with the United Nations Environment Programme in Nairobi.

Brundtland indicated that the ratification process already appears difficult. She said that a number of European countries--where 45% of the world’s CFCs are manufactured--were attempting to “water down” language in a related document inviting additional countries to sign the protocol.

EPA Pushed

“We are not happy at the number of countries that are not coming forward,” she said.

Meanwhile, Doniger said the Natural Resources Defense Council will insist--in court if necessary--that the U.S. EPA carry out provisions of the federal Clean Air Act, which the environmental group contends requires that agency to regulate any compound that may endanger the ozone shield.

The federal law, Doniger said, requires Thomas to take a tougher regulatory posture than the Montreal treaty.

“He’s going to have to address whether he’s going to take the U.S. regulations beyond the Montreal agreement. . . . We can say to Europe and Japan, you can’t bring computers or cars into our country unless you have a phase-out program in your country equal to ours.”

Thomas, however, said when asked whether he anticipated additional controls on U.S. CFC production: “At this point in time, I don’t.”

WORLD PRODUCTION OF CHLOROFLUOROCARBONS In the late 1970s, use of chlorofluorocarbons dropped when the U.S. banned their use in aerosols. But as predictions of damage to the ozone layer grew smaller, producers and consumers became more complacent and worldwide use began to rise again. (Millions of kilograms)

Year Aerosols Total 1976 432,275 750,561 1982 209,834 599,482 1986 224,076 748,511

Source: Chemical Manufacturers Assn. CHLOROFLUOROCARBON APPLICATIONS, 1986

Worldwide U.S. Cleaning agents, other uses 20% 20% Aerosols 25% 5% Plastic foams 25% 30% Refrigerants 30% 45%

CHLOROFLUOROCARBON PRODUCTION

1976 1986 Communist bloc 10% 10% Latin America 4% 3% Japan 7% 15% U.S. & Canada 36% 33% Europe, Middle East 43% 39%

Source: Alliance for a Responsible Chlorofluorocarbon Policy