Horse Racing : Distinguishing Features Are Absent From This Kentucky Derby Crop

This is the time of year when candidates for the Kentucky Derby bloom as suddenly and profusely as crocuses.

Anytime a 3 year old shows a little flair -- finishing with a strong kick or running a fast time -- he will be inevitably labeled a hopeful for the spring classics.

This season, however, even the most positive-thinking fans have had trouble spotting 3 year olds who look as if they could be bona-fide Derby contenders. Prep races in California and Florida have underscored doubts about the stamina of many of last season’s top runners, but have produced few budding new stars. In Arkansas and Louisiana, there are seemingly no top-class 3 year olds.

As I reviewed my speed figures for horses around the country, I was hard-pressed to fill the following list of the top 10 Derby contenders. The number in parentheses after each horse’s name is the best speed figure he has earned at a mile or more; a difference of two points equals approximately one length.

-- Brian’s Time (109). In only the sixth start of his career, Brian’s Time rallied strongly to win the most important 3 year old event of the year to date, the $500,000 Florida Derby. He has improved every time he has run. Both his pedigree and his strong stretch kick suggest he will do even better when he gets to go 1 miles.

-- Regal Classic (106). The Canadian colt’s second-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup last fall stamped him as one of the best horses of his generation. On a speed-favoring Hollywood track, he was one of the few horses all day who was able to rally effectively. His style looked like that of a Kentucky Derby horse.

Regal Classic would have been at the top of my list of Derby candidates until a couple of weeks ago, when a cough and a temperature knocked him out of the Tampa Bay Derby, which was supposed to have been his first start of the year. The illness wasn’t serious, but it has disrupted trainer Jim Day’s intended schedule, and may hurt his chances of getting to Churchill Downs.

-- Forty Niner (109). Because Woody Stephens is his trainer and he has an admirably consistent record, Forty Niner is almost certain to get to Churchill Downs in good shape and run a creditable race there. But the 1987 Eclipse Award-winner is a front-runner with a questionable pedigree for 1 miles; Brian’s Time was able to run him down in the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby. In the Kentucky Derby, Forty Niner is likely to face a field filled with similarly inclined speed horses, which won’t help his chances.

-- Cherokee Colony (103). Trainer Johnny Campo’s stretch-runner won the Flamingo Stakes in an eye-catching fashion, but then ran an inexplicable race in the Florida Derby. Altering his style, he sat close to the fast pace and had no punch when it counted. He is a tough horse to assess, and will remain so until he makes his next start in the Wood Memorial Stakes on April 23.

-- Seeking the Gold. Undefeated in four career starts, Seeking the Gold may be the most talented horse of his generation. But I have lost too much money betting on horses like him in the Kentucky Derby Future Book to take him too seriously as a contender at Churchill Downs.

Seeking the Gold earned a figure of 116 -- by far the best of any horse in his age group -- when he won his last start at seven furlongs. But he hasn’t run farther, and getting him ready to go 10 furlongs on May 7 may be too much to ask. Trainer Shug McGaughey is going to try, though, by running the speedster in a series of three stakes in New York next month. Seeking the Gold may be the most intriguing candidate for the Derby, but the lessons of history say he will fail in his quest.

-- Lively One (104). Charles Whittingham’s colt was considered the most promising 3 year old in the west until he gave a dull, disappointing performance and finished fourth in the San Felipe Stakes Sunday. But he bled during the race, and he will get Lasix when he makes his next start. Jeff Siegel, the most astute handicapper in California, said, “He’s got the right style and the right connections to be a Derby horse. I still haven’t written him off.”

-- Ruhlmann (111). When he won the El Camino Real Derby at Bay Meadows in sensational time, Ruhlmann looked like a world-beater. When he lost his next start, the Florida Derby, he looked like a no-heart, no-talent bum. Ruhlmann bled from the nostrils during that race, and he will be treated with Lasix when he runs in the Santa Anita Derby next month. Maybe the medication will transform him, but up to this point Ruhlmann looks like a horse who will do his best only when he gets a soft, uncompetitive situation.

-- Notebook (109). Wayne Lukas’ colt has speed and talent, but his third-place finish in the Florida Derby suggested he doesn’t have the stamina for classic distances.

-- Stalwars (105). This West Coast runner benefited from an easy trip when he won his last start, the Bradbury Stakes at Santa Anita. Nor has he proved he can beat top competition. But he is lightly raced and eligible to improve.

-- Tejano (103). The winner of the $1 million Hollywood Futurity last fall, Tejano has been disappointing in his first two starts as a 3 year old. Probably he is just a miler, anyway, but he showed enough raw talent last season that he can’t be written off entirely

Among the prominent names who didn’t make this list, Breeders’ Cup winner Success Express has clearly shown he doesn’t want to go a distance. Wayne Lukas’ filly Winning Colors may be Derby-bound, but she looks like a one-dimensional front-runner at this point. So does Mi Preferido, Laz Barrera’s speedster who beat most of the west’s leading 3 year olds at Santa Anita Sunday.

Maryland-based Finders Choice has plenty of talent, but he hasn’t yet run a mile and probably doesn’t have time to get fit for the Derby. His undefeated stablemate Private Terms has been visually impressive at times, but he hasn’t beaten any high-class competition and still hasn’t run fast; his best figure is a 92. But he has the potential to do much better.