Commentary : Literally, Gotham Rewrote This Handicapper’s Rules

Fortunately, I am accustomed to humiliating myself publicly. Otherwise, I might crawl into a hole after declaring that the undefeated 3-year-old Private Terms was going to “get clobbered” in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct last Saturday.

The Maryland-based colt not only averted a clobbering, but he won the mile race over a high-class field in a manner suggesting he may be one of the best horses of his generation.

What bothered me about Private Terms’ victory was not my personal embarrassment, but the fact that the result of the Gotham contradicted the best-established principles of handicapping. It was as if a scientist came across evidence suggesting that the Earth really isn’t round.

Most American horseplayers now accept the principle that time is the most reliable measurement of a horse’s ability. And even people who aren’t slavish devotees of speed figures would agree that if Horse A runs all of his races in faster time than Horse B, he is better than Horse B.

Private Terms was consistently, unequivocally slower than the rivals he met in the Gotham. The speed figure he had earned in every one of his victories was inferior to every race that Seeking the Gold, the Gotham favorite, had ever run. There was no flaw in the calculation of the figures (which compared races that were run in Maryland and Florida). The figures simply proved to be irrelevant. Why?

If this had been an ordinary claiming or allowance race, a horse with figures as inferior as Private Terms’ would almost never have won unless there were some strong mitigating factors (bad racing luck, first-time Lasix, etc.) But races for 3-year-olds leading up to the Kentucky Derby are not ordinary races. Trainers are using them to prepare for a future objective and they don’t necessarily want a horse to deliver his maximum effort in them.

As I think back on all the losing selections I have made in the Kentucky Derby, most of them were based on a too-literal reading of a horse’s preps before the main event. Having learned the lesson for the last time from Private Terms, I am going to add the following to the Great Maxims of Handicapping:

When a horse is using a race as a prep for a future objective, don’t judge him according to time, margin of victory or anything so literal. Instead, ask the question: “Did this race accomplish what the trainer wanted to accomplish?”

Private Terms’ slow victories in Maryland had done just what trainer Charles Hadry wanted. The horse had gained experience and conditioning without being subjected to undue stress. Private Terms finally showed the extent of his talent in the Gotham. His winning time -- a mile in 1:34 4/5--was very good and showed to us literal-minded speed handicappers just how good he is.

In my calculations, these are the best figures earned by principal Kentucky Derby candidates in races at a mile or more:

Winning Colors 114, Private Terms 109, Brian’s Time 109, Forty Niner 109, Notebook 109, Mi Preferido 109, Seeking the Gold 108, Regal Classic 106.

The majority of the horses on this list (including the filly Winning Colors, who won Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby) are front-runners who may not have the style or pedigree to win at 1 miles in the Kentucky Derby. Private Terms is a very formidable contender for America’s most famous race. Some of us were just a little slow to recognize it.