The Nation : N.Y. Lowers Estimate of AIDS Infection

New York City officials have halved their estimate of the number of residents infected with the AIDS virus to 200,000. However, city Health Commissioner Dr. Stephen Joseph said the lower figure does not mean there will be fewer than the 43,000 AIDS cases predicted in New York by 1991. Joseph said he informed the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta of the revision. If “they accept our methodology it will make some changes in their estimates,” he said. The new figure for the number of New Yorkers believed to be infected is based on studies in San Francisco on the number of HIV-infected homosexuals there. Joseph said it is assumed that the rate of infection is similar in the two cities. The higher figures are based on decades-old data from Alfred Charles Kinsey’s research on homosexual activity and on surveys indicating that there was a 50% HIV infection rate among homosexual men.