Off-Track Will Test Handicappers

Rainy weather may keep today’s Breeders’ Cup crowd from swelling to an estimated 75,000 at Churchill Downs, but for those who do come and the national television audience, handicapping will be more of a challenge than ever.

Of the seven favorites, two horses--Alysheba in the Classic and Miesque in the Mile--would appear to have less chance in the mud. Mining, the favorite in the Sprint, Personal Ensign, the odds-on choice in the Distaff, and Sunshine Forever, who’s expected to win the Turf, seem to be the kinds of horses that can run on any surface.

Easy Goer, who’s 2-5 in the Juvenile and should go off at the shortest price of the day, has never run on an off track, but his sire, Alydar, was a good mud runner.

Here’s a quick look at the races, in the order they’ll be run:

$1-million Sprint, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds and older--In the last 3 years, favorites have fallen in this race, with Precisionist springing one of the upsets in 1985. He’s back to try again. “If he wins, he’ll be a horse for the ages,” said John Russell, Precisionist’s trainer. Mining has won all 6 of his starts, never having been tested. He won’t enjoy that luxury today, with Olympic Prospect, a jet-setter from California, in the 14-horse field.

$1-million Juvenile Fillies, 11/16 miles, 2-year-old fillies-- Some Romance, part of the 5-horse Wayne Lukas-trained entry, has won 4 straight, but going a mile she was all out to hold off her stablemate, Open Mind, at Belmont Park last month. The trainers of Approved To Fly and Stocks Up haven’t been able to beat Lukas’ fillies recently in California--although Approved To Fly finished ahead of Lea Lucinda in the Del Mar Debutante and was disqualified.

$1-million Distaff, 1 1/8 miles, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and older--Personal Ensign, a candidate for horse of the year, will try to retire undefeated with her 13th victory. She is still not a cinch. Winning Colors must regain her earlier form, which included a Kentucky Derby win here 6 months ago. Goodbye Halo also likes the track, having won the Kentucky Oaks the day before the Derby, and her off-track form is outstanding.

$1-million Mile, 1 mile on turf, 3-year-olds and older--Defending champion Miesque doesn’t revel in soft going. Warning, another European entrant, was beaten by Miesque at a mile in August, but ran a sensational race at Ascot a month later. After winning the 1-mile Arlington Million, Mill Native is being shortened up today. Mohamed Abdu ran a strong race at Santa Anita recently, but is coming off surgery and might not have enough foundation.

$1-million Juvenile, 11/16 miles, 2-year-old colts and geldings--Most observers regard this race as a battle for second place, with Easy Goer being talked about as the best 2-year-old since Devil’s Bag, and Ruffian before him, and Secretariat before her. The only thing against Easy Goer is his next-to-outside post in the 10-horse field. Is It True has been beaten 3 times by Easy Goer. Music Merci is the best of a weak crop of Californians.

$2-million Turf, 1 1/2 miles on turf, 3-year-olds and older--Sunshine Forever is the best American horse, but Indian Skimmer and Sarhoob, the entry from Europe, are tough. Trainer Charlie Whittingham was told to leave Nasr el Arab, the Oak Tree Invitational winner, at Santa Anita because his owner, Sheik Mohammed, felt he had better shots with Indian Skimmer and Sarhoob. Are those two better than Nasr el Arab? “That’s what they tell me,” said Whittingham, not convincingly. Great Communicator, who couldn’t beat Nasr el Arab, is running today.

$3-million Classic, 1 miles, 3-year-olds and older--This race is filled with questions: Will Alysheba handle an off track? Can Forty Niner last for 1 miles? Is Cutlass Reality a figment of Californians’ imaginations? Could Slew City Slew or Waquoit take an early lead and keep it? Could Cryptoclearance or Lively One win, a la Wild Again and Skywalker, who sprung surprises in previous Classics?