Gazing Into a Crystal Ball : Bets are on newcomer Tracy Chapman for a sweep

Tracy Chapman is about to become a household name.

The 24-year old singer from Boston is expected to sweep the 31st annual Grammy Awards on Wednesday night, winning in all six categories in which she was nominated. That would represent the best showing ever by a new artist, surpassing Christopher Cross’ five-award blitz in 1981.

Chapman’s critically hailed debut album “Tracy Chapman” is the betting favorite to win the Grammy for album of the year and her “Fast Car”--a stark portrait of a woman trapped in a cycle of poverty--has the inside track to be named both best record and song.

Chapman is also expected to win in three other categories: new artist, female pop vocal and contemporary folk performance. Only two other performers have ever won as many as six Grammys in one year: Roger Miller with six in 1966 for “King of the Road,” and Michael Jackson with eight in 1984 for the “Thriller” album.

Jackson is back in the record of the year finals with “Man in the Mirror,” and could upset the Chapman bandwagon. There will be some sentiment to give the award to Jackson to take the sting out of his Grammy shutout last year.

Perennial Grammy favorite Bobby McFerrin’s “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” will also receive support in the best record balloting. The hit was so pervasive, it found its way into the presidential race when George Bush briefly adopted it as his campaign theme song. Also up for best record: Anita Baker’s “Giving You the Best That I Got” and Steve Winwood’s “Roll With It.”

Chapman’s strongest challengers in the best album race are George Michael’s “Faith” and Sting’s “ . . . Nothing Like the Sun.” Michael, the former leader of the bubble gum duo Wham!, has come a long way in the past two years. But he is still regarded by some as contrived and blatantly commercial. Sting is a Grammy perennial, with nine awards since 1980. But “. . . Nothing Like the Sun” didn’t have the impact that “Tracy Chapman” did.

Also vying for best album: Winwood’s “Roll With It” and McFerrin’s “Simple Pleasures.”

“Don’t Worry, Be Happy” is Chapman’s main rival in the best song finals, but it lacks the social consciousness of “Fast Car” and other recent champs like “We Are the World” and “That’s What Friends Are For.” Also nominated: Baker’s “Giving You the Best That I Got,” Sting’s “Be Still My Beating Heart” and Brenda Russell’s “Piano in the Dark.”

There’s no contest in the best new artist race. The also-rans are Vanessa Williams, Toni Childs, Rick Astley and Take 6.

Whitney Houston could give Chapman a run for the pop female vocal award. Houston, nominated for “One Moment in Time,” won in this category in 1986 and 1987, but she’ll probably finish second this time. Also nominated: Joni Mitchell, Taylor Dayne and Brenda Russell.

Chapman is a shoo-in in the contemporary folk category. The competition: Sweet Honey in the Rock, John Prine, Michelle Shocked and the South African artists on the “Homeland” compilation.

D.J. Jazzy Jeff & the Fresh Prince’s lighthearted, universal lament, “Parents Just Don’t Understand,” is expected to win in the new rap category, while Metallica’s critically admired “ . . . And Justice for All” is the one to beat in the new hard rock/metal division.

Here are the likely winners in other key categories:

Pop Vocal Performance, Male: McFerrin’s “Don’t Worry, Be Happy,” by the narrowest of margins over Michael’s “Father Figure.” Also nominated in this ultra-competitive race: Sting, Steve Winwood and three-time champ Phil Collins.

Pop Duo/Group: Look for the Beach Boys to win their first Grammy with the No. 1 hit “Kokomo.” Also possible: Brenda Russell & Joe Esposito’s “Piano in the Dark.”

Rock Female: Tina Turner’s “Tina Live in Europe” over Pat Benatar’s “All Fired Up” and releases by three critically acclaimed newcomers: Sinead O’Connor, Toni Childs and Melissa Etheridge, who will likely split the “progressive” vote.

Rock Male: Look for Rod Stewart to win his first Grammy for “Forever Young” in a close race with Eric Clapton’s “After Midnight” from his “Crossroads” compilation (which is a cinch to win for best historical album). Also possible: Robert Palmer’s “Simply Irresistible.”

Rock Duo/Group: U2 triumphed last year with “The Joshua Tree” and is likely to win again with the hit single “Desire.” Also possible: INXS’ “Kick.”

R&B; Female and R&B; Song: Baker won in these categories two years ago with “Rapture” and “Sweet Love,” respectively, and should repeat this year with “Giving You the Best That I Got.”

R&B; Male: Look for Luther Vandross to win his first Grammy with his album “Any Love.” Also possible: Teddy Pendergrass and Stevie Wonder.

R&B; Duo/Group: Gladys Knight & the Pips seem to be headed for their first Grammy in 15 years with their hit “Love Overboard.” Also possible: New Edition and the Jets.

Country Female: Last year’s winner, K.T. Oslin, and the 1987 champ, Reba McEntire, are vying again. Look for Oslin to repeat with “Hold Me.”

Country Male: Last year’s winner, Randy Travis, is apt to retain his title with “Old 8 X 10.”

Country Duo/Group: The Judds--for the fourth time in the past five years--with “Give a Little Love.”

Country Vocal Collaboration: Roy Orbison & k.d. Lang’s “Crying,” one of Orbison’s last recordings before his death in December, should squeak past Dwight Yoakam & Buck Owens’ “Streets of Bakersfield.”

Grein correctly predicted all five of the album of the year nominees and four of the five record of the year finalists earlier this year.